簽到天數: 2141 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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周子堯@FB|2017-8-24 08:52
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JTWC發布TCFA!
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.6N 130.0E TO 16.8N 122.2EWITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFYISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSATIMAGERY AT 240000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATEDNEAR 15.7N 129.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 132.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 129.2E, APPROXIMATELY 570 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH LOW LEVEL BANDING BEGINNING TO FORM AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION LOCATED AROUND AND WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 231927Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS THE SLIGHTLY ELONGATED SHAPE OF THE CIRCULATION AND ALSO DEPICTS BANDING AND DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING IN. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), AND EXTREMELY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-32 C). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, ALTHOUGH THEY ARE SPLIT AS TO WHEN THE DISTURBANCE WILL CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 
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