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11L.Irma 橫颳大西洋 逐漸消亡

簽到天數: 581 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

蜜露|2017-9-3 12:18 | 顯示全部樓層



路徑有些類似 2003伊莎貝爾 、2004法蘭西斯 、2010厄爾

Cat.4 ~ Cat.5 登陸美國東部.....

美國和台灣不同..這強度要是登陸美國.
美國大平原東部會上演浩劫
2017AL11_OHCNFCST_201709030000.GIF


20170903.0044.metopb.89rgb.11L.IRMA.95kts.973mb.18.4N.45.6W.080pc.jpg


11L_gefs_18z.png





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簽到天數: 967 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

kbty245|2017-9-4 16:34 | 顯示全部樓層
GFS太狂啦~~~

先以906百帕登陸古巴

出海稍微減弱

再猛爆加強到881百帕

並以巔峰強度登陸南佛羅里達


gfs_mslp_wind_seus_30.png


相較起來EC正常多了

巔峰921百帕登陸安德羅斯島

掠過佛羅里達北上

GFS感覺已經抽風了

強度不太可信...


Irma所處的環境是不錯

未來經過的海域OHC都很高

北方還有大槽跟高空冷窩提供良好的極向流出

乾空氣也少

說不定還真有機會挑戰900+的中心氣壓


目前Irma眼牆換置即將完成

高層已經開出個中型風眼


2017AL11_4KMSRBDC_201709040745.jpg


多頻也顯示內眼崩潰的差不多了
20170904.0613.f15.x.colorpct_85h_85v.11LIRMA.100kts-961mb-170N-517W.86pc (1).jpg



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請問GFS的圖要去哪個網址找呢?  發表於 2017-9-5 17:03
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簽到天數: 952 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

jwpk9899|2017-9-4 21:08 | 顯示全部樓層
美國這兩天開始使用飛機實測 預計明天還會加飛
目前強度方面 風速已經與一次巔峰持平 來到105kt
氣壓也已經低過一次巔峰了 944mb
20170904.1215.goes-13.vis.1km.11L.IRMA.105kts.944mb.16.8N.52.6W.100pc.jpg


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簽到天數: 581 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

蜜露|2017-9-4 21:14 | 顯示全部樓層


美軍最新實測了伊瑪的中心
947hPa  是一個Cat.3
recon_NOAA2-0211A-IRMA.png

recon_NOAA2-0211A-IRMA_timeseries.png



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簽到天數: 2429 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-9-4 23:51 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC 15Z報巔峰上望125節,預測兩天後抵達背風群島,五天後登陸古巴。
000
WTNT41 KNHC 041449
TCDAT1

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 04 2017

The satellite presentation of Irma has improved markedly over the
past 24 hours, with the eye becoming larger and much more distinct.
A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft has reported peak 700-mb flight
level winds of 117 kt, SFMR winds of 107 kt, and dropsonde data
that support a minimum pressure of around 944 mb. These data
support an initial intensity of 105 kt. The aircraft also reported
concentric eyewalls and a double wind maximum during the last couple
of passes through the center, indicating that an eyewall
replacement cycle has likely begun.

Irma is expected to remain within a very favorable environment for
strengthening during the next several days and additional
intensification appears likely. However, eyewall replacement cycles
are likely to cause some fluctuations in intensity during that time.
The NHC forecast brings the hurricane to category 4 strength within
the next 24 hours, and then maintains Irma as a powerful hurricane
during the next 5 days, assuming that the core of the cyclone does
not move over any of the Greater Antilles.

Irma has been moving west-southwestward or 255/11 kt to the south of
a strong mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic.  The hurricane
should turn westward later today or tonight, then west-northwestward
Tuesday as it reaches the southwestern portion of the ridge.  As
mentioned in the previous NHC discussion, a large mid-latitude
trough is expected to amplify over the eastern United States during
the next few days.  The global models are unanimous in lifting the
trough out to the northeast by late in the week, allowing the
Atlantic ridge to build westward on days 3 through 5.  The track
guidance has again shifted westward and southwestward at days 4 and
5, but the models remain in very good agreement through the forecast
period.  The updated NHC track forecast has been adjusted
southwestward late in the period, and lies very near the consensus
of the ECMWF, GFS, and HWRF models.

Six hourly upper-air soundings will begin at 1800 UTC today over the
central United States to better sample the upstream mid-latitude
trough.  In addition, the NOAA G-IV aircraft will begin sampling the
environment around Irma this afternoon and evening, and these data
will be included in tonight's 0000 UTC model runs.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track since
strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center.
In addition, average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute
miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is expected to affect the northeastern Leeward Islands as a
dangerous major hurricane, accompanied by life-threatening wind,
storm surge, and rainfall impacts, along with rough surf and rip
currents. Hurricane warnings have been issued for portions of the
Leeward Islands. Preparations should be rushed to completion, as
tropical-storm force winds are expected to first arrive in the
hurricane warning area by late Tuesday.

2. Irma could directly affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico as a dangerous major hurricane later this week.
Hurricane watches have been issued for these areas, and tropical-
storm-force winds could arrive in these areas by early Wednesday.

3. Irma could directly affect Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the
Bahamas, and Cuba as a dangerous major hurricane later this week.
Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and
listen to advice given by officials.

4. There is an increasing chance of seeing some impacts from Irma in
the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys later this week and this
weekend. In addition, rough surf and dangerous marine conditions
will begin to affect the southeastern U.S. coast by later this week.
Otherwise, it is still too early to determine what direct impacts
Irma might have on the continental United States. However, everyone
in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their
hurricane plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 16.8N  53.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
12H  05/0000Z 16.5N  54.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
24H  05/1200Z 16.7N  57.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
36H  06/0000Z 17.3N  59.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
48H  06/1200Z 18.2N  62.4W  125 KT 145 MPH
72H  07/1200Z 19.9N  68.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
96H  08/1200Z 21.2N  73.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
120H  09/1200Z 22.0N  77.8W  115 KT 130 MPH...NEAR THE COAST OF CUBA

$$
Forecaster Brown

145912_5day_cone_with_line.png

20170904.1253.metopb.89rgb.11L.IRMA.105kts.944mb.16.8N.52.6W.090pc.jpg

rbtop-animated.gif
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簽到天數: 596 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2017-9-5 06:04 | 顯示全部樓層
18Z增強四級颶風,也並列今年北大西洋風王寶座,預估還有增強空間,路徑趨向背風群島
204223_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png 20170904.1824.noaa19.89rgb.11L.IRMA.115kts.944mb.16.7N.53.9W.075pc.jpg rgb-animated.gif rbtop-animated.gif

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簽到天數: 952 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

jwpk9899|2017-9-5 11:46 | 顯示全部樓層
最新一報強度提升到120kts 氣壓降到944毫巴  風速超越哈維
NHC已針對加勒比海東部的島國發出颶風警報

20170905.0315.goes-13.ir.11L.IRMA.120kts.943mb.16.7N.55.1W.100pc.jpg
未來有機會進入墨西哥灣
al112017.20170905030251.gif



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簽到天數: 1864 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

ben811018|2017-9-5 13:16 | 顯示全部樓層
11L_gefs_latest.png esrl.eps.ecmb.skp.11L.2017.168.png

要貫穿整個東岸..
破壞力會相當驚人,要小心他了
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