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11L.Irma 橫颳大西洋 逐漸消亡

簽到天數: 588 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2017-9-5 23:08 | 顯示全部樓層
加勒比海、墨西哥灣以外北大西洋最強颶風
145233_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
000
WTNT41 KNHC 051446
TCDAT1

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

Irma is an extremely impressive hurricane in both infrared and
visible satellite images.  Experimental GOES-16 one-minute visible
satellite pictures show a distinct 25-30 n mi wide eye with several
mesovortices rotating within with eye.  The aircraft have not
sampled the northeastern eyewall where the strongest winds were
measured shortly before 1200 UTC this morning, but the Air Force
plane will be entering the eye in that quadrant momentarily.  A peak
SFMR wind of 154 kt was reported, with a few others of 149-150 kt.
Based on these data the initial intensity is set at 155 kt for this
advisory. This makes Irma the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic
basin outside of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in the NHC
records.

Irma is expected to remain within low vertical wind shear, a moist
mid-level atmosphere, and high upper-ocean heat content as it moves
west-northwestward during the next several days. These conditions
should allow the hurricane to remain very intense throughout much
of the forecast period, however, fluctuations in intensity are
likely to occur as eyewall replacement cycles take place.  The NHC
intensity forecast is near the upper-end of the guidance and assumes
little overall interaction of Irma with the islands of the Greater
Antilles.

Irma continues to move westward at about 12 kt, and a strong
subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic should steer
Irma generally westward today. The ridge is expected to remain in
place over the western Atlantic during the next several days and
Irma is forecast to move west-northwestward throughout the most of
remainder of the forecast period.  Around day 5, a shortwave trough
dropping southward over the central United States is expected to
begin eroding the western portion of the ridge, allowing a Irma to
gain some latitude.  The new NHC track forecast is close to the
HFIP corrected consensus model and is very similar to the previous
forecast.

Since Irma is a large hurricane, users are reminded to not focus on
the exact forecast track since tropical-storm and hurricane-force
winds and life-threatening storm surge extend far from the center.
Residents in the Leeward Islands should complete their preparations
very soon as the weather will begin to deteriorate over the
easternmost Leeward Islands later this afternoon.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will
bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to
portions of the northeastern Leeward Islands beginning later today
and the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning tomorrow.
Preparations should be rushed to completion before the arrival of
tropical-storm force winds later today in the Leeward Islands and
tomorrow morning in Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

2. Hurricane watches have been issued for portions of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos,
and Irma could bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall to
those areas on Thursday and Friday.

3. Irma could directly affect the remainder of the Bahamas and Cuba
as an extremely dangerous major hurricane later this week. Residents
in these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to
advice given by officials.

4. The chance of direct impacts from Irma later this week and this
weekend is increasing in the Florida Keys and portions of the
Florida Peninsula. However, it is too soon to specify the timing
and magnitude of the impacts. Elsewhere, it is too early to
determine what direct impacts Irma might have on the continental
United States. Everyone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that
they have their hurricane plan in place.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 16.8N  58.4W  155 KT 180 MPH
12H  06/0000Z 17.2N  60.3W  155 KT 180 MPH
24H  06/1200Z 18.1N  63.0W  150 KT 175 MPH
36H  07/0000Z 19.1N  65.9W  145 KT 165 MPH
48H  07/1200Z 20.1N  68.7W  140 KT 160 MPH
72H  08/1200Z 21.4N  74.0W  135 KT 155 MPH
96H  09/1200Z 22.7N  78.3W  130 KT 150 MPH
120H  10/1200Z 24.4N  81.2W  125 KT 145 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +3 收起 理由
b997755 + 3 可惜沒懸臂,不然就又美又強了.

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簽到天數: 969 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

kbty245|2017-9-6 01:00 | 顯示全部樓層
颶風獵人的最新實測

00
URNT15 KNHC 051639
AF309 0811A IRMA               HDOB 46 20170905
162930 1710N 05832W 6968 02929 9836 +074 +074 131128 130 092 030 00
163000 1709N 05833W 6965 02915 9817 +078 +078 130132 134 098 052 00
163030 1708N 05835W 6960 02902 9775 +095 +095 136128 132 110 029 00
163100 1707N 05836W 6979 02837 9735 +099 +099 136129 130 116 014 00
163130 1706N 05837W 6969 02825 9698 +099 +099 134135 137 121 021 03
163200 1705N 05838W 6962 02797 9664 +098 +098 133142 143 122 027 03
2163230 1704N 05839W 6965 02754 9623 +099 +099 134145 150 136 075 00
163300 1703N 05840W 6973 02711 9573 +106 +106 138145 151 147 066 00
163330 1702N 05841W 6961 02668 9504 +115 +115 139132 141 160 046 00
163400 1701N 05842W 6962 02616 /////   +109   //// 137121 133 160 024 05
163430 1700N 05843W 6956 02574 9331 +145 +140 140102 115 ///// //// 03
163500 1659N 05844W 6979 02525 9293 +174 +146 143085 093 121 001 03
163530 1658N 05845W 6957 02529 9262 +179 +147 148070 081 082 001 03
163600 1657N 05846W 6976 02491 9240 +192 +141 150048 063 067 000 00
163630 1656N 05848W 6970 02487 9240 +179 +139 155037 043 058 001 03
163700 1655N 05849W 6963 02490 9235 +175 +133 162024 034 040 003 00
163730 1654N 05851W 6961 02491 9235 +174 +131 153010 018 030 001 00
163800 1653N 05853W 6965 02485 9237 +172 +127 055002 005 026 000 00
163830 1652N 05854W 6967 02484 9239 +173 +126 332010 014 029 000 00
163900 1652N 05856W 6965 02490 9247 +169 +128 321015 016 029 001 03
$$


海平面最大風速160kts!!!


最低氣壓第一次穿心時是估計923.5hpa


第二次穿心是估計922.6hpa


不過真正的氣壓要等投落送資料出來
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

kbty245|2017-9-6 01:13 | 顯示全部樓層
最新一輪實測

000
URNT12 KNHC 051705
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   AL112017
A. 05/16:38:10Z
B. 16 deg 53 min N
    058 deg 53 min W
C. 700 mb 2440 m
D. 160 kt
E. 054 deg 14 nm
F. 138 deg 151 kt
G. 054 deg 15 nm
H. 926 mb
I. 9 C / 3066 m
J. 18 C / 3052 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C24
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 0811A IRMA               OB 21
MAX FL WIND 151 KT 054 / 15 NM 16:33:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 148 KT 299 / 16 NM 16:44:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 180 / 4 KT
MAX FL TEMP 19 C 062 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR
;
最大風速160kts

如果被NHC認可

就是自2005威爾瑪以來

最強的颶風


recon_AF309-0811A-IRMA (1).png

recon_AF309-0811A-IRMA_timeseries.png

recon_AF309-0811A-IRMA_zoom.png

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2017-9-6 01:54 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 Meow 於 2017-9-6 01:57 編輯

真的就是最大風速160節。
174437_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 59.1W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM E OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM ESE OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...926 MB...27.34 INCHES
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2017-9-6 05:36 | 顯示全部樓層
9月5日颶風艾瑪巔峰進逼背風群島
Irma 2017-09-05 1700Z.jpg
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Irma_2017-09-05_1700Z.jpg

點評

中心氣壓好高啊  發表於 2017-9-6 21:04
SATCON對於婀瑪強度應該是到頂了,一分鐘平均風維持在160kts,氣壓在916hpa  詳情 回復 發表於 2017-9-6 10:49
婀瑪颶風前方還有一塊高OHC在等著她前去享用呢,話說回來,會不會像1988年吉伯特一樣急縮風眼,把氣壓降更低、風速衝更高的可能性啊?!  發表於 2017-9-6 10:42
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

typhoonman|2017-9-6 10:49 | 顯示全部樓層
Meow 發表於 2017-9-6 05:36
9月5日颶風艾瑪巔峰進逼背風群島

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Irma_2017-09-05_1700Z.jpg ...



SATCON對於婀瑪強度應該是到頂了,一分鐘平均風維持在160kts,氣壓在916hpa
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

蜜露|2017-9-6 13:04 | 顯示全部樓層


昨天凌晨時間,實測了160kts

今天實測中 , 西北象限實測了153kts !!!  比昨天更猛

氣壓一度是914.5hPa

不排除給到165kts
recon_AF305-1111A-IRMA_timeseries.png


2017AL11_4KMSRBDC_201709052345.jpg


Satcon 也達到了155kts
201711L_wind_ssmis.gif


至於德法僅分析 7.0 而已 .除了眼溫 18+ 能看外
其他在實測面前 德法都無用.

20170905.2211.f17.91h.11L.IRMA.160kts.926mb.16.9N.59.2W.095pc.jpg


伊瑪的特殊武器是有著中眼+190成環頂級颱風才有的底層 .  
(梅莎的190成環是很勉強 , 諾盧只有210而已)

20170905.2345.goes13.x.wv1km.11LIRMA.160kts-926mb-169N-592W.100pc.jpg



未來也有可能直撲安提瓜和巴布達、聖克里斯多福與尼維斯、安圭拉、處女群島、維爾京群島、波多黎各.
等許多國家。

其中台灣球迷熟悉的棒球強國波多黎各有可能進入颶風警戒.
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2017-9-6 16:54 | 顯示全部樓層
今日強度維持在顛峰160KT。
bd-animated.gif rbtop-animated (22).gif

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