周子堯@FB

  中度颱風  
編號：1718 ( 20 W )
名稱：泰利 ( Talim )

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2017 年 09 月 06 日 07 時
升格熱低日期：2017 年 09 月 07 日 20 時
命名日期　　：2017 年 09 月 09 日 20 時
轉化日期　　：2017 年 09 月 18 日 20 時
登陸地點　　：日本 鹿兒島縣 南九州市
　　　　　　　　　 高知縣 宿毛市
　　　　　　　　　 兵庫縣 名石市
　　　　　　　　　 北海道 檜山郡
　　　　　　　　　 北海道 伊達市
颱風警報總計：海上警報 19 報

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB)：48 m/s ( 15 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) ：50 m/s ( 95 kt )
中國氣象局 (CMA)：52 m/s ( Super TY )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：120 kts ( Cat.4 )

海平面最低氣壓與暴風半徑
海平面最低氣壓：935 百帕
七級風半徑　　：250 公里
十級風半徑　　： 80公里

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
94W.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-11.0N-162.0E


以上資料來自：CWB、JMA、CMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

u777771

檢視了一下(EC)最新的數值預報: 尤其是數值預報到(240)小時後的預測;我個人猜想~~這或許就是目前(EC)在數值預報中、指得這一個系統吧

(EC)數值預報;參考網址:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ ... e&pkg=z500_mslp

霧峰追風者

JTWC 21Z評級LOW

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.8N 157.6E, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM NORTHEAST OF CHUUK ISLAND.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 061804Z 91GHZ
SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION WITH ELONGATED CURVATURE ABOUT
A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 061130Z METOP-B PARTIAL ASCAT PASS
CONFIRMS THE ELONGATED NATURE OF FLOW ABOUT THE LLC WITH 15 KNOT
WINDS. INVEST 94W IS CURRENTLY JUST INSIDE THE EDGE OF A REGION OF
LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
AND VERY WARM (30-32 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. GLOBAL
DYNAMIC MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE LAST FEW
FRAMES OF THE MODEL RUN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 06Z展望提升MEDIUM，EC數值將通過巴士海峽。

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.8N 157.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 156.7E, APPROXIMATELY
705 NM EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO WRAP IN FROM THE SOUTH. A 062307Z AMSU-B METOP-A 89GHZ
IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION. A
062306Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS CONFIRMS THE ELONGATED NATURE OF FLOW
ABOUT THE DISTURBANCE WITH PRIMARILY 15 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT, BUT SHOWING SOME 20 KNOT WINDS AS WELL. THE DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A REGION OF LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM (30-32 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH THE TIMING OF
CONSOLIDATION RANGING FROM 48-108 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

anson923

我有點擔心,因為我飛機要在9月17星期天起飛
我有點怕因為這個而不能起飛
希望能夠知道未來是否會接近香港
拜託各位了~

Alexchow

anson923 發表於 2017-9-7 19:21
我有點擔心,因為我飛機要在9月17星期天起飛
我有點怕因為這個而不能起飛
希望能夠知道未來是否會接近香港

根據現在的資料，我相信大家都很難告訴你。因為94會否成為颱風都是疑問？繼續留意吧。

anson923

Alexchow 發表於 2017-9-7 20:16
根據現在的資料，我相信大家都很難告訴你。因為94會否成為颱風都是疑問？繼續留意吧。 ...

好的
希望之後會有更多關於這個台風的消息~

t02436

JMA 12Z升TD。

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 12N 154E WEST SLOWLY.