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15L.Maria 加速朝東北前進

簽到天數: 3279 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-9-20 12:40 | 顯示全部樓層
氣壓再降至908mb,北側眼牆正在通過美屬維京群島。
ZCZC MIATCUAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Maria Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1200 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

...1200 AM AST POSITION AND INTENSITY UPDATE...
...SUSTAINED HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS REPORTED ON ST. CROIX...

A sustained wind of 75 mph (120 km/h) with a wind gust to 114 mph
(183 km/h) was recently reported in the western portion of St. Croix
in the U.S. Virgin Islands.


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM AST...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 64.9W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SSW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...908 MB...26.81 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Blake

NNNN

GOES04152017263rpyNnL.jpg

20170920.0151.gpm.89pct89h89v.15L.MARIA.150kts.909mb.17N.64.3W.055pc.jpg

recon_AF302-0715A-MARIA.png

rbtop-animated.gif

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簽到天數: 3198 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

king111807|2017-9-20 14:31 | 顯示全部樓層
21558550_2050628121617851_3349828855096199403_n.jpg

【Maria颶風重返五級,稍後登陸波多黎各】
才剛徹底摧毀多米尼克的颶風Maria,已經重新增強回五級颶風。
目前Maria強度150kts,暫居今年全球第二強的熱帶氣旋。
 
綜觀目前及未來環境,現在的Maria應當已屆巔峰,其實最新的雷達圖已經有雙眼牆出現的狀況,之後估計會稍微減弱一點點,接著在台灣時間今天傍晚會登陸波多黎各,這將是當地幾十年來威脅最大的颶風之一,尤其前陣子Irma颶風的災後復原才剛開始,現在又遇到Maria,實在是令人擔心。

點評

和艾瑪一樣完整的底層  發表於 2017-9-20 15:33
85年來最強  發表於 2017-9-20 15:14
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-9-20 17:04 | 顯示全部樓層
眼牆置換完成,不過09Z降到135節,馬上要登陸波多黎各了...
ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

Radar observations from the San Juan WSR-88D and wind data from an
Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
Maria has just about completed an eyewall replacement.  Based on
the now-dominant outer eyewall, the eye diameter has increased from
10 n mi to 30 n mi.  This has likely contributed to some weakening,
and based on the latest observations from the Hurricane Hunters, the
intensity is set at 135 kt which is at the top of category 4 range.
Although there has been a slight reduction of intensity, Maria
remains an extremely dangerous hurricane.  Some weakening is
likely while the system crosses Puerto Rico.  Later in the forecast
period, less favorable upper-level winds should cause further
weakening, but Maria is likely to remain a large and powerful
hurricane for the next 5 days.  The official intensity forecast is
near or a little above the model consensus.

Maria continues to move between west-northwest and northwest at
about 9 kt.  The flow on the south side of a weak mid-level ridge
over the western Atlantic is expected to steer the hurricane on this
general heading over the next couple of days.  This track will bring
the center of Maria across Puerto Rico and just north of the eastern
Dominican Republic over the next day or so.  After that time a
break in the ridge, partially associated with Tropical Storm Jose,
should cause Maria to turn north-northwestward, then northward by
the end of the forecast period.  The track guidance remains tightly
clustered through 72 hours, giving fairly high confidence in the
track forecast through that time.  There is some increase in the
spread of the models at days 4 and 5, with the latest ECMWF
prediction near the western edge of the guidance envelope but with
all of the reliable models well offshore of the southeast U.S. at
the end of the period.  The official forecast is very close to the
latest FSU Superensemble track.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria's core will make landfall over Puerto Rico within the
next couple of hours, bringing life-threatening wind, storm surge,
and rainfall impacts to the island.  Everyone in Puerto Rico should
follow advice from local officials to avoid life-threatening
flooding from storm surge and rainfall.

2. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the
near-surface winds indicated in this advisory.

3. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for the Virgin Islands,
the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and
Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas, where Maria is expected
to bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0900Z 17.9N  65.6W  135 KT 155 MPH
12H  20/1800Z 18.6N  66.7W  125 KT 145 MPH...INLAND
24H  21/0600Z 19.5N  68.2W  120 KT 140 MPH
36H  21/1800Z 20.5N  69.4W  120 KT 140 MPH
48H  22/0600Z 21.5N  70.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
72H  23/0600Z 24.2N  72.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
96H  24/0600Z 27.3N  73.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  25/0600Z 30.5N  73.0W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

NNNN

090927_5day_cone_with_line.png

NWS radar image from Puerto Rico_Virgin Islands.png

GOES08152017263kWekFg.jpg

recon_AF302-0715A-MARIA.png

rbtop-animated.gif

WUNIDS_map.gif

點評

上次海燕的風潮暴沒看準..這個比海燕小兩個級數的[馬里亞]看能在中心附近有什麼驚天的暴力紀錄!  發表於 2017-9-20 17:11
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[LV.8]以壇為家I

krichard2011|2017-9-20 17:46 | 顯示全部樓層
瑪莉亞颶爆發增強時的密集閃電~
擷取華盛頓大學的閃電即時定位系統 (WWLLN)
2017.09.19 15:10 UTC ~ 2017.09.19 16:10 UTC
與 2017.09.19 23:10 UTC ~ 2017.09.20 00:10 UTC
可以發現
前者在爆發增強階段有相當明顯密集閃電發生 且相當規則地分布在眼牆周圍
當颶風強度到達極盛期時(後者) 眼牆閃電頻率則明顯降低
很特別的現象 紀錄一下

*顏色說明
紅色表示 10分鐘以內之閃電
橙色表示 10~30分鐘之內發生的閃電
黃色表示 30~60分鐘之內發生之閃電
20170919.1615.goes13.x.ir1km_bw.15LMARIA.140kts-931mb-161N-627W.100pc.png
20170920.0015.goes13.x.ir1km_bw.15LMARIA.145kts-920mb-166N-636W.100pc.png

點評

2013年的海燕和2016年的莫蘭蒂也有這樣密集的閃電出現在眼牆周遭,不過就算到頂了也還未見到極限,反而閃電出現得更凶狠了。不知道是否與熱塔(Heat Tower)出現有相當的關係?  詳情 回復 發表於 2017-9-20 20:10
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簽到天數: 3279 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-9-20 18:48 | 顯示全部樓層
中心登陸。
000
WTNT65 KNHC 201034
TCUAT5

Hurricane Maria Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
635 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

...MARIA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR YABUCOA PUERTO RICO...

Geostationary satellite images and surface observations indicate
that the center of Hurricane Maria made landfall near Yabucoa,
Puerto Rico, around 615 AM AST.


A sustained wind 60 mph (96 km/h) with a wind gust to 113 mph (182
km/h) was recently reported at Yabucoa Harbor, Puerto Rico.

A National Ocean Service tide gauge at Yabucoa Harbor, Puerto Rico,
recently reported a water level of 4.3 ft above Mean Higher High
Water (MHHW).

SUMMARY OF 635 AM AST...1035 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 65.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM WSW OF VIEQUES
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...917 MB...27.08 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Berg

NWS radar image from Puerto Rico_Virgin Islands.png

rb-animated.gif

GOES10302017263kX5Qjs.jpg

recon_AF305-0815A-MARIA.png

WUNIDS_map.gif
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

typhoonman|2017-9-20 20:10 | 顯示全部樓層
krichard2011 發表於 2017-9-20 17:46
瑪莉亞颶爆發增強時的密集閃電~
擷取華盛頓大學的閃電即時定位系統 (WWLLN)
2017.09.19 15:10 UTC ~ 2017.0 ...

2013年的海燕和2016年的莫蘭蒂也有這樣密集的閃電出現在眼牆周遭,不過就算到頂了也還未見到極限,反而閃電出現得更凶狠了。不知道是否與熱塔(Heat Tower)出現有相當的關係?

點評

用GOOGLE 查詢HAIYAN、MERANTI還有HEAT TOWER以及LIGHTNING應該可以找得到你要的資料。不過會是全英文的原文。  發表於 2017-9-22 00:03
不知道有沒有海燕跟莫蘭蒂的閃電圖 一直都爬不到資料  發表於 2017-9-20 20:35
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-9-20 23:18 | 顯示全部樓層
15Z減弱到120節,中心看來快出海了,波多黎各雷達跟測站無一倖免,慘...
接下來因為雷達站毀損以及風眼填塞,每小時的定位報將取消直到出海飛機實測啟動後。
ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

The last radar image from the San Juan WSR-88D was received at 0950
UTC when Maria's eye was located only about 5 n mi off the
southeastern coast of Puerto Rico.
  Subsequent 1-minute imagery from
the GOES-16 satellite, as well as surface observations, indicate
that the eye made landfall a little south of Yabucoa Harbor, Puerto
Rico, around 1015 UTC.  Now that the center is moving over the
mountainous terrain of the island, the eye has become cloud filled,
and the infrared satellite presentation has degraded. Without radar
velocity data, the initial intensity is incredibly uncertain, but my
best guess is 120 kt based on a typical inland decay rate.
  Maria's
center is expected to move off the northern coast of Puerto Rico
soon, and an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled
to intercept the center early this afternoon and provide a better
estimate of how much Maria has weakened.


The initial motion is northwestward, or 305/10 kt.  This
northwestward motion is forecast to continue for the next 48 hours,
followed by a turn toward the north by days 4 and 5, while Maria
moves between a mid-level high centered southeast of Bermuda and a
broad trough extending from Tropical Storm Jose southwestward into
the Gulf of Mexico.  The track guidance is tightly clustered this
cycle, and there were no significant changes made to the NHC
forecast track.

Once Maria moves off the coast of Puerto Rico, it will take some
time for the structure to reorganize over the warm waters of the
Atlantic Ocean.  However, the shear is expected to be less than 10
kt for the next 24-36 hours, and Maria has an opportunity to
restrengthen a bit over that time period.  After 36 hours, a gradual
increase in shear is likely to lead to a commensurate gradual
decrease in the hurricane's intensity through the end of the
forecast period.  Since the SHIPS model, in particular, responds to
the favorable conditions for intensification, the NHC intensity
forecast lies just above the intensity consensus through much of the
forecast period.

Since we don't have radar imagery from San Juan, and the eye has
become cloud filled in satellite imagery, the hourly position
updates are being discontinued.



KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria's core is moving over Puerto Rico, with life-threatening
wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts continuing over the
island. Everyone in Puerto Rico should follow advice from local
officials to avoid life-threatening flooding from storm surge and
rainfall. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Virgin
Islands, but conditions should gradually improve there later today.

2. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the
near-surface winds indicated in this advisory.

3. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for the northern coast of
the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the
southeastern Bahamas, where Maria is expected to bring dangerous
wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 18.4N  66.5W  120 KT 140 MPH...OVER PUERTO RICO
12H  21/0000Z 19.2N  67.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
24H  21/1200Z 20.2N  69.0W  125 KT 145 MPH
36H  22/0000Z 21.2N  70.1W  125 KT 145 MPH
48H  22/1200Z 22.4N  71.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
72H  23/1200Z 25.3N  72.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
96H  24/1200Z 28.5N  73.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  25/1200Z 31.5N  73.0W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

NNNN

150028_5day_cone_with_line.png

GOES14152017263P08KOD.jpg

rbtop-animated.gif

vis-animated.gif

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

king111807|2017-9-20 23:27 | 顯示全部樓層
21616282_2051165131564150_1691227336062611986_n.jpg
【Maria颶風登陸波多黎各 強度略為減弱】
今年全球第二強的熱帶氣旋Maria在今日下午6點15分從波多黎各登陸,實測風速高達135節,相當於台灣的強烈颱風。由於目前颶風中心在陸地,整體的強度也有減弱。
受到Maria颶風的影響,多米尼克目前初步統計有7人死亡,同時也造成多米尼克多處土石流,災情相當慘重。
目前Maria颶風已經從波多黎各東南部沿海登陸,中心在東南部的卡耶伊附近,估計在今天晚上至明日清晨中心會出海。
Maria颶風在波多黎各也帶來許多災害,據目前最新的訊息顯示,當地的氣象雷達也被Maria颶風吹走。由於當地目前正在Irma颶風的復原工作,Maria颶風所帶來的災後復原將會是接下來所面臨的難題。


點評

兩個雷達站都被摧毀了,沒東西可看,剩雲圖  發表於 2017-9-21 01:03
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