B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.6N 130.3E, APPROXIMATELY 545 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 060048Z
METOP-A AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE
NORTHWEST. A 100023Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF 05-10 KNOT
CYCLONIC FLOW. THE DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED IN AN AREA OF MARGINAL
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-32 CELSIUS). GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKS WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.6N 130.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 125.7E, APPROXIMATELY
300 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED
MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. A 070022Z SCATSAT PASS INDICATES A
DEFINED AND SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 25 KNOT WINDS. THE
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC REMAINS WEAK BUT HAS IMPROVED IN
THE PAST FEW HOURS. UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT (5-15 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO THE NORTH OF THE
LLCC IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS STRONG
WHILE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS WEAK. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT (29-30 CELSIUS). THE SYSTEM IS CONTINUING
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION, HOWEVER, THE PROXIMITY TO LAND WILL
INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVEL TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ONCE IT ENTERS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.5N 122.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 123.9E, APPROXIMATELY
174 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED
MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 082222Z AMSU 89GHZ PARTIAL
IMAGE SHOWS SCATTERED AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY AND AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT DEPICTS THE DISTURBANCE HAVING FAVORABLE TO
MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, BUT IS BEING OFFSET BY HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR(25 TO 30 KNOTS), WITH FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES(29
TO 30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWING
TO THE NORTHWEST WITH LIMITED INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWN GRADED TO A LOW.
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