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96W 遠洋低緯 對流消長

簽到天數: 596 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2017-10-6 10:11 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2017-10-9 05:38 編輯

  基本資料  
編號    :96 W
擾動編號日期:2017 10 06 09
撤編日期  :2017 10 07 23
96W-INVEST-15kts-1009mb-5N-158.5E

20171006.0120.himawari8.x.vis2km.96WINVEST.15kts-1009mb-50N-1585E.100pc.jpg

點評

我怎麼覺得這96W螺旋性比菲律賓外海的那個95W來得更好,感覺會是一個大物。  發表於 2017-10-7 00:26

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
t02436 + 15

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簽到天數: 166 天

[LV.7]常住居民III

Alexchow|2017-10-8 00:18 來自手機 | 顯示全部樓層
最新評估是Low

"(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.2N
153.0E, APPROXIMATELY 95 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT, BUT DISORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 071131Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING
OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A 071131Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS
AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND 15 TO 20 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A POINT SOURCE. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SLOW
DEVELOPMENT AND A WEST-NORTHWESTARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW."
abpwsair.jpg

點評

還是要謹慎一點,副高勢力龐大  發表於 2017-10-8 00:34
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[LV.5]常住居民I

ZXC47174|2017-10-8 10:08 | 顯示全部樓層
提升Medium

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.2N 152.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 152.9E, APPROXIMATELY 79 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE AROUND A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 072322Z 89GHZ AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS) AND MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, WITH FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-32 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SLOW DEVELOPMENT AND A WEST-NORTHWESTARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.


96w.png

點評

目前EC跟GFS主觀預測分期挺大的.再多觀察數值幾報比較好,而且都快到10月中旬了這時候的颱風本體要直接侵襲到台灣雖不能說罕見但還是有一定難度的  發表於 2017-10-8 16:30
美軍短期預測這隻後期可能會沿著高壓南緣以C3~C4強度直接從臺灣東岸登陸。  發表於 2017-10-8 15:13
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-10-8 15:18 | 顯示全部樓層
降評Low
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.5N 152.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.7N 152.0E, APPROXIMATELY 40
NM SOUTH OF CHUUK. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DETERIORATING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A RAPIDLY
WEAKENING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS NO
DISCERNIBLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AT THIS TIME. A
080457Z NOAA-19 89GHZ IMAGE ALSO SHOWS NO DISCERNIBLE LLCC. RECENT
SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY INDICATES NO CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A BROAD, WEAK CIRCULATION OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS AND TRACK IT SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

abpwsair.jpg

96W_gefs_latest.png

rbtop-animated.gif

點評

若能夠撐下去,將上看中度颱風70kts.965hpa.展望medium.  發表於 2017-10-8 20:58
要陣亡了。  發表於 2017-10-8 17:14
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[LV.7]常住居民III

Jimmy|2017-10-9 09:43 | 顯示全部樓層
掰了96W----確定陣亡...
abpwsair.jpg 原本16、17日的數值模式預報各大機構也都改了
ecmwf_uv850_vort_wpac_10.png

gfs_z850_vort_wpac_37.png

gem_z850_vort_wpac_35.png

連一向歡樂的CMC都把擾動改到南海去了@@

點評

alu
還是發展不起來  發表於 2017-10-9 23:10
不過現有路徑是預報它重新再編號或殘留雲的走向,目前因為受到乾空氣引響對流減弱結構鬆散暫時已經刪除編號。  發表於 2017-10-9 14:47
所以96w路徑修正的更為偏西,但是否會就這樣一路平西這就要看到時北方的鋒面南壓情況了。  發表於 2017-10-9 14:44
因為最新一報預測太平洋高壓強度會比預期來的強,重點是太平洋高壓不只可能會比較強還可能加速西伸。  發表於 2017-10-9 14:42
難怪我上tropical tidbits找不到96W的預測路徑...  發表於 2017-10-9 11:39
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[LV.7]常住居民III

Jimmy|2017-10-10 01:31 | 顯示全部樓層
誰可以告訴我這顆是怎樣
第一次看到GFS模式這麼歡樂...雖然現在看無意義...但好猛喔
gfs_z850_vort_wpac_50.png




點評

這應該是下週氣象局預報會在菲國東方海面生成的巨大天氣系統。  發表於 2017-10-10 14:31
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