B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.0N
142.0E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING. A 131142Z SCATSAT IMAGE SHOWS A SHARP INVERTED TROUGH,
HOWEVER, A 131202Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE SUGGESTS A DEVELOPING LLCC
WITH SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20
KNOTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
SST VALUES ARE VERY FAVORABLE AT 30 TO 31C. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND DECREASING VWS OVER
THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.0N 142.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 139.5E, APPROXIMATELY 95
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SOMEWHAT ELONGATED AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO PERSIST OVER THE CENTER. A 132112Z SSMIS
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
DISTINCT BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AS WELL AS CENTRAL
CONVECTION. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20
KNOTS) AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS).
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND INTENSIFY TO WARNING
CRITERIA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
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