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1722 蘇拉 橫掃琉球群島 通過日本南方近海後轉化

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

2017-10-16 09:48 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2019-3-17 15:23 編輯

  輕度颱風  
編號:1722 ( 27 W )
名稱:蘇拉 ( Saola )
800px-Saola_2017-10-28_0520Z.jpg
  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2017 10 16 09
升格熱低日期:2017 10 19 15
命名日期  :2017 10 24 14
停編日期  :2017 10 29 23
登陸地點  :

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB):30 m/s ( 11 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) :30 m/s ( 60 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):75 kts ( Cat.1 )

海平面最低氣壓與暴風半徑
海平面最低氣壓:975 百帕
七級風半徑  :200 公里
十級風半徑  :70 公里

  過去路徑圖  
1024px-Saola_2017_track.png
  擾動編號資料  
93W-INVEST-15kts-1010mb-12.6N-147.4E

20171015.1718.f15.37h.93W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.12.6N.147.4E.065pc.jpg

以上資料來自:CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
king111807 + 15

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簽到天數: 595 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2017-10-18 08:11 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 23Z直接評級MEDIUM,有望擺脫蘭恩颱風糾結,獨立發展。
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.1N 145.2E, APPROXIMATELY 30 NM WEST OF SAIPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE GUAM RADAR SHOWS CURVED RAIN BANDS
WRAPPING AROUND A DEVELOPING LLCC. A 171733Z NOAA-19 89GHZ IMAGE
INDICATES FORMATIVE, FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE WITH WEAKLY-DEFINED SHALLOW BANDING ELSEWHERE. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM TINIAN SHOW PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY-
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), ASSOCIATED WITH TS 25W'S OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY GOOD DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT AND WARM SST. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AN EASTWARD TRACK ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
36 TO 48 HOURS AS VWS RELAXES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
abpwsair (1).jpg 20171017.2320.himawari-8.ircolor.93W.INVEST.20kts.1005mb.15.1N.144.9E.100pc.jpg


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霧峰追風者|2017-10-19 06:01 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 20Z發布TCFA。
WTPN22 PGTW 182030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 250 NM RADIUS OF 15.3N 149.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 181800Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 147.8E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.1N 145.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 147.8E, APPROXIMATELY
670 NM SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO. THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W)
PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 145.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1N
145.6E, APPROXIMATELY 11 NM WEST OF SAIPAN. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION LOCATED DIRECTLY
OVER A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 181536Z 89GHZ
AMSR-2 MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES DISTINCT BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM
THE SOUTH, WITH DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KT), WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS FUELING DEEP
CONVECTION. SSTS ARE FAVORABLE, IN THE 30-31C RANGE. GLOBAL MODEL
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. SOME MODELS PREDICT AN EASTWARD TRACK, TURNING NORTHWARD THEN
RECURVING, WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. OTHERS PREDICT
SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION AND LITTLE TO NO CONSOLIDATION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
192030Z.//
NNNN

wp9317.gif 20171018.2120.himawari-8.ircolor.93W.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.15.5N.147.8E.100pc.jpg


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會被蘭恩吃掉  詳情 回復 發表於 2017-10-19 20:21
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霧峰追風者|2017-10-19 16:16 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2017-10-19 16:50 編輯

JMA 15時升格熱帶低壓。
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 15N 150E ALMOST STATIONARY.


17101915.png 20171019.0740.himawari-8.ircolor.93W.INVEST.20kts.1009mb.13.5N.150E.100pc.jpg


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typhoonhato1713|2017-10-19 20:21 來自手機 | 顯示全部樓層
霧峰追風者 發表於 2017-10-19 06:01
JTWC 20Z發布TCFA。

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霧峰追風者|2017-10-20 04:19 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2017-10-20 05:09 編輯

JTWC 18Z升格27W,環流袖珍,後期逐漸北上。
WTPN33 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/182021ZOCT2017//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 001   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   191800Z --- NEAR 12.2N 151.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 151.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 12.1N 151.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 12.8N 150.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 13.6N 148.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 14.9N 147.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 22.2N 144.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 30.6N 143.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 12.2N 151.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 282
NM NORTH OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 10
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 25W (LAN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN22 PGTW 182030).//
NNNN
wp2717.gif 20171019.1930.himawari-8.ircolor.27W.INVEST.25kts.1006mb.12.2N.151.7E.100pc.jpg rgb-animated (4).gif

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

alu|2017-10-20 04:21 | 顯示全部樓層
升格為W27

20171019.1920.himawari8.x.ir1km_bw.27WTWENTYSEVE.25kts-1006mb-122N-1517E.100pc.jpg

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霧峰追風者|2017-10-20 12:55 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2017-10-20 12:57 編輯

JTWC 率先升格TS,巔峰上望60Kts。
wp272017.20171020030603.gif 20171020.0400.himawari-8.ircolor.27W.TWENTYSEVE.35kts.1005mb.11.3N.151.8E.100pc.jpg

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