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92L 逐漸併入鋒面系統

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2017-10-13 19:32 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2017-10-18 07:28 編輯

  基本資料  
編號    :92 L

擾動編號日期:2017 10 13 19
撤編日期  :2017 10 18 05
92L-INVEST-15kts-1009mb-11N-50W

20171013.1045.goes-13.ir.92L.INVEST.15kts.1009mb.11N.50W.100pc.jpg
NHC : 0%
1. A strong tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the
Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Upper-level winds are expected to prevent significant development of
this system for the next couple of days as it moves generally west-
northwestward to the north of the Leeward Islands. Environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for some development
early next week while the system subsequently moves northward over
the west-central Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

two_atl_2d1.png

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簽到天數: 595 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2017-10-13 23:04 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC展望提升至10%
1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday in
association with a broad area of low pressure located about 350
miles east of the northern Leeward Islands.  Upper-level winds are
not expected to be conducive for significant development during the
next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward at 15
to 20 mph and passes north of the Leeward Islands and the Virgin
Islands.  However, environmental conditions could become a little
more conducive for some development early next week while the system
begins to move northward over the west-central Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

two_atl_2d1.png

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霧峰追風者|2017-10-17 00:36 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC 展望提升至40%
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 175 miles north-northeast of the Turks and
Caicos Islands have increased overnight.  Although the system is
producing wind gusts to near tropical-storm force, satellite
imagery suggests that it lacks a well-defined center.  Upper-level
winds are forecast to remain marginally conducive for some
additional development during the next day or so while the system
moves generally northward. Conditions are expected to become
unfavorable for further development by Wednesday when the
disturbance merges with a frontal system over the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
two_atl_2d1 (1).png 20171016.1545.goes-13.ir.92L.INVEST.30kts.1011mb.24N.70.5W.100pc.jpg


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霧峰追風者|2017-10-17 08:44 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC 展望降低至30%,逐漸併入鋒面系統。
1. Broad low pressure centered about 500 miles southwest of Bermuda
continues to produce an elongated area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms which extends from Puerto Rico northward over the
western Atlantic Ocean.  The low's circulation is not well defined,
and significant tropical development appears unlikely during the
next day or so due to strong upper-level winds.  The disturbance is
forecast to move generally northeastward, merging with a frontal
system over the western Atlantic by Tuesday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
two_atl_2d1.png 20171016.2345.goes-13.ircolor.92L.INVEST.30kts.1012mb.25.3N.70.7W.100pc.jpg


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