開啟輔助訪問
 找回密碼
 立即加入

29W 進入北印度洋

簽到天數: 596 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2017-10-25 15:00 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2019-3-17 15:29 編輯

  熱帶低壓  
編號:29 W
名稱:
800px-JMA_TD_35_2017-10-31_0610Z.jpg
  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2017 10 25 13
升格熱低日期:2017 10 30 21
撤編日期  :2017 11 00 00
登陸地點  :泰國 班武里府

  巔峰時期資料  
日本氣象廳 (JMA) :15 m/s ( 30 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):30 kts ( TD )
海平面最低氣壓:1004 百帕

  過去路徑圖  
1280px-29W_2017_track.png
  擾動編號資料  
95W-INVEST-15kts-1010mb-11.2N-114.5E

20171025.0550.himawari-8.ir.95W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.11.2N.114.5E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
t02436 + 15

查看全部評分

簽到天數: 2522 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-10-26 14:23 | 顯示全部樓層
評級Low
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.8N
111.8E, APPROXIMATELY 428 NM WEST OF PUERTO PRINCESA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UNORGANIZED AND ILL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 260216Z AMSU METOP-A 89GZ
IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION
LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS  A
POOR ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH WEAK OUTFLOW. AT THIS TIME GLOBAL MODELS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME ANALYZING THE DISTURANCE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

abpwsair.jpg

95W_gefs_latest.png

vis-animated.gif
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 588 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2017-10-28 00:54 | 顯示全部樓層
GFS最新預報登陸馬來半島前964百帕,很有可能成為28年來泰國灣最強颱風,並預報未來泰國灣還會有個熱帶風暴。
gfs_mslp_wind_ind_22.png
gfs_mslp_wind_ind_41.png
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 596 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2017-10-30 22:45 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA 升格熱帶低壓
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 08N 112E ALMOST STATIONARY.
Screenshot_2017-10-30-22-40-59_com.google.android.apps.docs_1509374483514.jpg rbtop-animated (1).gif

回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 588 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2017-10-30 23:13 | 顯示全部樓層
來張彩色的
螢幕快照 2017-10-30 23.06.54.png
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 596 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2017-10-31 04:01 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 19Z再次評級Low
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
7.4N 111.2E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM WNW OF BRUNEI IN THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING
DEEP CONVECTION. A 301342Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS A TIGHT OVAL
CIRCULATION WITH 10-15 KT WIND BARBS, THOUGH MANY BARBS ARE FLAGGED
CONTAMINATED. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAIR ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LIGHT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. 95W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10
KT), AND SST VALUES ARE FAVORABLE AT 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
CIRCULATION PERSISTING AND MOVING WESTWARD, THEN DEVELOPING IN THE
BAY OF BENGAL, WEST OF THE MALAY PENINSULA, AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
abpwsair.jpg avn-animated.gif


回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 588 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2017-10-31 10:19 | 顯示全部樓層
才幾個小時,直接TCFA。
wp9517.gif
WTPN21 PGTW 310130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.7N 110.6E TO 9.9N 104.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 310000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.9N 110.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
7.9N 110.2E, APPROXIMATELY 261 NM ESE OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM,
IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
WRAPPING INTO THE COVERED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 301342Z
ASCAT PASS REVEALS A TIGHT OVAL CIRCULATION WITH 10-15 KT WIND
BARBS, THOUGH MANY BARBS ARE FLAGGED CONTAMINATED. A 301330 OSCAT
PASS DEPICTS 15-20 KT WINDS, CONCENTRATED IN THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTURBANCE RELATED TO STRONG
STRAIGHTLINE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, AND 10
KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE DISTURBANCE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAIR ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
STRENGTHENING DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. 95W IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KT), AND SST
VALUES ARE FAVORABLE AT 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CIRCULATION
PERSISTING AND MOVING WESTWARD, THEN DEVELOPING IN THE BAY OF
BENGAL, WEST OF THE MALAY PENINSULA, AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. 18Z MODEL RUNS ARE MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR DISTURBANCE
INTENSIFICATION AROUND THE MALAY PENINSULA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
010130Z.
//
NNNN
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 2522 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-10-31 10:20 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC發布TCFA
wp9517.gif

回復

使用道具 舉報

1234下一頁
快速回覆
您需要登錄後才可以回帖 登錄 | 立即加入

本版積分規則

本平台僅供學術討論之用,預報應以氣象局為準

威普網站虛擬主機贊助公司

臺灣第一個天氣類型社群平台 即時天氣資訊、精準颱風動態

線上客服
FB傳送訊息
廣告行銷
精準行銷 物超所值
官方粉專
發佈 快速回復 返回頂部 返回列表