霧峰追風者

  熱帶低壓  
編號：29 W
名稱：無

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2017 年 10 月 25 日 13 時
升格熱低日期：2017 年 10 月 30 日 21 時
撤編日期　　：2017 年 11 月 00 日 00 時
登陸地點　　：泰國 班武里府

  巔峰時期資料  
日本氣象廳 (JMA) ：15 m/s ( 30 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：30 kts ( TD )
海平面最低氣壓：1004 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
95W-INVEST-15kts-1010mb-11.2N-114.5E


以上資料來自：JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

評級Low

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.8N
111.8E, APPROXIMATELY 428 NM WEST OF PUERTO PRINCESA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UNORGANIZED AND ILL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 260216Z AMSU METOP-A 89GZ
IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION
LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS  A
POOR ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH WEAK OUTFLOW. AT THIS TIME GLOBAL MODELS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME ANALYZING THE DISTURANCE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

Meow

GFS最新預報登陸馬來半島前964百帕，很有可能成為28年來泰國灣最強颱風，並預報未來泰國灣還會有個熱帶風暴。

霧峰追風者

JMA 升格熱帶低壓

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 08N 112E ALMOST STATIONARY.

Meow

來張彩色的

霧峰追風者

JTWC 19Z再次評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
7.4N 111.2E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM WNW OF BRUNEI IN THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING
DEEP CONVECTION. A 301342Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS A TIGHT OVAL
CIRCULATION WITH 10-15 KT WIND BARBS, THOUGH MANY BARBS ARE FLAGGED
CONTAMINATED. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAIR ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LIGHT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. 95W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10
KT), AND SST VALUES ARE FAVORABLE AT 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
CIRCULATION PERSISTING AND MOVING WESTWARD, THEN DEVELOPING IN THE
BAY OF BENGAL, WEST OF THE MALAY PENINSULA, AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

Meow

才幾個小時，直接TCFA。

WTPN21 PGTW 310130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.7N 110.6E TO 9.9N 104.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 310000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.9N 110.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
7.9N 110.2E, APPROXIMATELY 261 NM ESE OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM,
IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
WRAPPING INTO THE COVERED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 301342Z
ASCAT PASS REVEALS A TIGHT OVAL CIRCULATION WITH 10-15 KT WIND
BARBS, THOUGH MANY BARBS ARE FLAGGED CONTAMINATED. A 301330 OSCAT
PASS DEPICTS 15-20 KT WINDS, CONCENTRATED IN THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTURBANCE RELATED TO STRONG
STRAIGHTLINE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, AND 10
KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE DISTURBANCE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAIR ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
STRENGTHENING DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. 95W IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KT), AND SST
VALUES ARE FAVORABLE AT 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CIRCULATION
PERSISTING AND MOVING WESTWARD, THEN DEVELOPING IN THE BAY OF
BENGAL, WEST OF THE MALAY PENINSULA, AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. 18Z MODEL RUNS ARE MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR DISTURBANCE
INTENSIFICATION AROUND THE MALAY PENINSULA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
010130Z.
//
NNNN

t02436

JTWC發布TCFA