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99B

簽到天數: 595 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2017-10-31 02:17 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2017-11-6 15:19 編輯

  基本資料  
編號    :99 B
擾動編號日期:2017 10 31 01
撤編日期  :2017 11 06 15
99B-INVEST-15kts-NAmb-8.7N-79.5E

20171030.1730.himawari8.x.ir1km_bw.99BINVEST.15kts-NAmb-87N-795E.100pc.jpg

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
t02436 + 15

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簽到天數: 595 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2017-10-31 02:37 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 17Z評級Low
1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
8.7N 79.5E, APPROXIMATELY 124 NM NNW OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 300909Z SSMI 85GHZ
IMAGE REVEALED DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND SOME POLEWARD OUTFLOW. 99B IS LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KT) WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT
LEADING TO HIGHER SHEAR VALUES (>25 KT) IMMEDIATELY TO THE NORTH.
SST VALUES ARE FAVORABLE AT 29-30C. HOWEVER, LAND INTERACTION WITH
SRI LANKA AND THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT IS DISADVANTAGEOUS FOR THE
DISTURBANCE AT THE MOMENT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CIRCULATION
PERSISTING, BUT DEPICT IT FALLING APART OR ONLY WEAKLY INTENSIFYING
SURFACE WINDS AT THE END OF THE MODEL FORECAST PERIOD, 4-5 DAYS,
DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

abiosair (1).jpg

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2017-11-2 03:12 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 17Z取消評級
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 79.5E
IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
abiosair (2).jpg

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