1. A weak area of low pressure located about 950 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized cloudiness and showers. Gradual development of this
system is possible before upper-level winds become unfavorable for
development by the middle of next week. This system is expected to
move west-northwestward across the open eastern Pacific during the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
1. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the low pressure
system located about 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula is gradually becoming better defined.
Shower and thunderstorm activity is also beginning to show some
signs of organization, and a tropical depression could form during
the next day or so if this recent development trend continues. By
the middle of next week, however, upper-level winds are expected
become quite unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation to occur.
This system is forecast to move west-northwestward to northwestward
across the open eastern Pacific during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
1. Recent reports from a nearby ship indicate that the low pressure
system located more than 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula has continued to become better
defined. Only a slight increase in the organization of the
associated thunderstorm activity would result in the formation of a
tropical depression on Sunday. By the middle of next week, however,
upper-level winds are expected become quite unfavorable for tropical
cyclone formation to occur. This system is forecast to move
west-northwestward to northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the open
eastern Pacific during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
1. Satellite imagery indicates that the low pressure system located
about 1300 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California continues to produce widespread cloudiness and
disorganized showers. Although environmental conditions are
gradually becoming less conducive for development to occur, only a
slight increase in organization would result in the formation of a
tropical depression later tonight or on Monday. By Tuesday morning,
however, upper-level winds are expected become quite unfavorable for
tropical cyclone formation to occur. This system is forecast to
move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the open eastern
Pacific during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
1. The low pressure system located more than a 1000 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California is
producing a small area of showers and isolated thunderstorms
displaced about 90 miles to the northeast of the surface circulation
center. Environmental conditions are becoming less favorable for
development, and are forecast to become quite unfavorable for
tropical cyclone formation by Tuesday night. This system is
expected to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the open
eastern Pacific during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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