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霧峰追風者|2017-11-29 02:33
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JTWC 17Z評級提升MEDIUM
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 83.5E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.0N 83.0E, APPROXIMATELY 188 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A
281317Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FLARING, DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN ORGANIZING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT,
BUT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM (28-
30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS STEADILY DEVELOP THE SYSTEM AS
IT TRACKS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST INTO AN AREA OF DECREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, BUT INCREASING LAND INTERACTION, OVER THE NEXT 48-72
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
BASED ON AN IMPROVING LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE AND ANTICIPATED FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
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