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94P 逐漸南下轉化

簽到天數: 594 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2018-1-28 00:31 | 顯示全部樓層
  熱帶風暴  
編號:94 P
名稱:

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2018 01 28 00
撤編日期  :2018 01 29 16
登陸地點  :

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最大風速:
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):35 kts
海平面最低氣壓:996 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
94P.INVEST.15kts.1000mb.28S.143.8E--定位錯誤

20180127.1600.himawari-8.ir.94P.INVEST.15kts.1000mb.28S.143.8E.100pc.jpg

94P.INVEST.15kts.1000mb.27.5S.144.0W

20180127.1622.goes-15.ircolor.94P.INVEST.15kts.1000mb.27.5S.144W.100pc.jpg
20180127.1622.goes-15.vis.1km.94P.INVEST.15kts.1000mb.27.5S.144W.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2019擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
t02436 + 15 + 1

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簽到天數: 588 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2018-1-28 03:37 | 顯示全部樓層
直接發佈TCFA
sh9418.gif
WTPS22 PGTW 271830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 26.6S 144.4W TO 35.0S 141.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 271753Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 27.5S 144.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 720NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAPE’ETE,
TAHITI. A 271541Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A REGION OF DEEP SYMMETRIC
FLARING CONVECTION JUST SOUTHEAST OF RAPA ISLAND. A RECENT 270657Z
ASCAT METOP-B IMAGE INDICATES A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH NUMEROUS 25-
30 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC).  UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 94P IS LOCATED NEAR
MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS SUPPORTING DEEP CONVECTION, WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26-28 CELSIUS)
COMBINED WITH MARGINAL VWS VALUES WILL SUPPORT SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94P WILL
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE ENTERING A
MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AS IT TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
281830Z.
//
NNNN
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簽到天數: 594 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2018-1-28 06:25 | 顯示全部樓層
TPPS11 PGTW 271807

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (SE OF AHUREI ISLAND)
B. 27/1753Z
C. 28.57S
D. 143.55W
E. FIVE/GOES15
F. T1.0/1.0/INIT OBS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO . CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING
A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   27/1541Z  28.05S  143.77W  SSMS

RICHARDSON
TXPS28 KNES 271856
TCSWSP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94P)
B.  27/1722Z
C.  28.3S
D.  143.3W
E.  THREE/GOES-W
F.  T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/VIS/WINDSAT
H.  REMARKS...CENTER IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE N OF THE CONVECTION. DT
OF 1.5 IS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH CIRCULAR LL CLOUDS AND A CENTER
LT 75NMI FROM A SMALL AREA OF ACTIVE CONVECTION. MET IS 1.0 AND PT IS
1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    27/1516Z 28.0S 143.6W WINDSAT

...RAMIREZ
vis_lalo-animated.gif 20180127.2152.goes-15.vis.1km.94P.INVEST.30kts.999mb.28.3S.143.5W.100pc.jpg
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簽到天數: 594 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2018-1-28 12:29 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2018-1-28 12:54 編輯

JTWC 風速達35kts,有機會升格。
SH, 94, 2018012718,   , BEST,   0, 283S, 1435W,  35,  996, TS
rgb-animated.gif
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簽到天數: 594 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2018-1-29 04:18 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 18Z取消TCFA
WTPS21 PGTW 281830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
RMKS/

1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPS22 PGTW 271830), THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 28.35S 143.5W,
APPROXIMATELY 720NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS REMNANTS OF A RAGGED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAKENED CONVECTION DISPLACED
TO THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 94P HAS MOVED INTO
AN UNFAVORABLE AREA OF HIGH (30-35 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH
LOW DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94P
WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST  AND BECOME ENGULFED INTO THE JET STREAM.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. IN THE
VIEW OF THE DECAYING LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE NO LONGER EXISTS, THEREFORE THIS
MESSAGE CANCELS THE TCFA.//
NNNN
20180128.1952.goes-15.vis.1km.94P.INVEST.25kts.1005mb.32.7S.139.8W.100pc.jpg

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