霧峰追風者

  二級熱帶氣旋  
編號：17 U ( 10 S )
名稱：Kelvin

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2018 年 02 月 13 日 02 時
JTWC升格日期:2018 年 02 月 16 日 14 時
命名日期　　：2018 年 02 月 17 日 14 時
撤編日期　　：2018 年 02 月 23 日 06 時
登陸地點　　：澳大利亞 西澳洲

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最大風速：
澳洲氣象局 (BoM)：60 kt
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：80 kts ( Cat.1 )
海平面最低氣壓：975 百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  擾動編號資料  
91P-INVEST-15kts-NAmb-10.5S-134.0E

91S-INVEST-20kts-1007mb-13.4S-130.0E


以上資料來自：BoM、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

霧峰追風者

JTWC 17Z評級"Medium"

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.9S 133.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 131.5E, APPROXIMATELY
54 NM SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 131253Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING REGION OF LOW LEVEL TURNING WITH LARGE AREAS OF
FLARING CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP IN AS CONVECTIVE BANDS. THE
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG DIVERGENCE
ALOFT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DUE TO A NEARBY POINT SOURCE,
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS) JUST OFFSHORE.  
91S IS CURRENTLY CONSOLIDATING OVER LAND, HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE 91S WILL TRACK SOUTHWEST ALONG THE AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE. IT
IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHETHER 91S WILL TRACK OVERWATER, BUT RAPID
CONSOLIDATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS HIGHLY PROBABLE IF AND WHEN
IT DOES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

霧峰追風者

BoM 升格熱帶低壓，編號17U，巔峰上望2級熱帶氣旋。

A tropical low (17U) was located near the west coast of the Northern Territory at 1pm WST Wednesday, about 220 kilometres north northeast of Kununurra and 240 kilometres southwest of Darwin. It is expected to move across the north Kimberley on Thursday before moving off the west Kimberley coast Thursday night or Friday morning. It is a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Friday night, when it should be located off the west Kimberley coast.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Thursday:Low
Friday:High
Saturday:High

zjk369

WTXS21
发布于15 / 1400Z
TCFA文本
WTXS21 PGTW 151400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.7S 125.0E TO 19.1S 119.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 151200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.9S 124.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.3S 128.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9S 124.7E, APPROXIMATELY
150 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 151113Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING REGION OF LOW LEVEL TURNING WITH RESURGENT
FLARING CONVECTION. THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED ON
THE COAST, DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC, WHICH IS STILL OVER
LAND. STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND RADIAL OUTFLOW IN THE VICINITY OF
91S ARE FUELING THE DEEP CONVECTION. 91S IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE (15-20 KT) VWS, WHICH IS SHEARING THE CONVECTION FROM THE
LLCC. FAVORABLE WARM SSTS (29-30 CELSIUS) AND LOWER VWS AWAIT 91S
ONCE IT EMERGES OVER WATER TO THE WEST. GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT THAT
91S WILL TRACK OVER WATER IN 18-24 HOURS AND RAPIDLY DEVELOP IN THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
161400Z.//NNNN

卫星修复公告
TPXS10 PGTW 151516
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91S (SW OF DARWIN)
B. 15/1450Z
C. 17.10S
D. 123.80E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
  15/1113Z  16.82S  124.73E  MMHS
  15/1253Z  17.08S  124.37E  MMHS
  LOWE

周子堯@FB

報文先出來，JTWC升10S

160900Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 121.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 46 NM WEST OF
BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTION THAT IS STARTING TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND THAT THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS MOVED OVER WATER. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 160600Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH
SHOWS LOW LEVEL CLOUD BANDING AND THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE A 160143Z
METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE WHICH SHOWS 25 KNOT WINDS, BASED ON IMPROVING
CONVECTION AND THE PRESENCE OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR (10 KNOTS) ALONG
WITH VERY STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS THAT
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT, RANGING FROM 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. ALL OF THESE
FACTORS WILL PROVIDE A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TC 10S,
ALLOWING FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO 60 KNOTS BY TAU 24 AND 80 KNOTS
BY TAU 48. TC 09P IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A
PERIOD OF HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND LITTLE MOVEMENT AS TC 10S BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY. AFTER TAU 48 THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 10S
WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD. MODELS ARE INDICATING A NEARLY 100NM WIDE
SPREAD WHEN TC 10S MAKES LANDFALL. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
160600Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND
170900Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERCEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 151400).//

zjk369

热带气旋10S（十）警告＃01
发布于16 / 0900Z
TC警告文本
WTXS31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151351ZFEB2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 001     
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160600Z --- NEAR 18.0S 121.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 121.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 18.6S 120.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 18.9S 120.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 19.1S 120.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 19.2S 120.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 21.0S 121.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 23.7S 121.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 121.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 46 NM WEST OF
BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTION THAT IS STARTING TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND THAT THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS MOVED OVER WATER. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 160600Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH
SHOWS LOW LEVEL CLOUD BANDING AND THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE A 160143Z
METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE WHICH SHOWS 25 KNOT WINDS, BASED ON IMPROVING
CONVECTION AND THE PRESENCE OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR (10 KNOTS) ALONG
WITH VERY STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS THAT
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT, RANGING FROM 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. ALL OF THESE
FACTORS WILL PROVIDE A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TC 10S,
ALLOWING FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO 60 KNOTS BY TAU 24 AND 80 KNOTS
BY TAU 48. TC 09P IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A
PERIOD OF HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND LITTLE MOVEMENT AS TC 10S BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY. AFTER TAU 48 THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 10S
WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD. MODELS ARE INDICATING A NEARLY 100NM WIDE
SPREAD WHEN TC 10S MAKES LANDFALL. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
160600Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND
170900Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERCEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 151400).//NNNN
卫星修复公告
TPXS10 PGTW 160856
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN)
B. 16/0830Z
C. 18.13S
D. 121.10E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS  STT: D1.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT YIELD 1.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   16/0659Z  18.08S  121.60E  SSMI
LOWE

t02436

00Z風速已達35節，但仍未命名，預測06Z強度將達到40節。

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0121 UTC 17/02/2018
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 19.1S
Longitude: 120.6E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [212 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 994 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds:   
Dvorak Intensity Code:  T2.5/2.5/D0.5/18HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  17/0600: 19.3S 120.6E:     040 [080]:  040  [075]:  989
+12:  17/1200: 19.4S 120.8E:     055 [100]:  045  [085]:  985
+18:  17/1800: 19.4S 120.9E:     065 [125]:  050  [095]:  981
+24:  18/0000: 19.5S 121.1E:     080 [145]:  055  [100]:  978
+36:  18/1200: 19.8S 121.6E:     100 [180]:  045  [085]:  984
+48:  19/0000: 20.9S 122.2E:     120 [220]:  040  [075]:  990
+60:  19/1200: 22.2S 122.5E:     140 [255]:  035  [065]:  993
+72:  20/0000: 23.5S 122.5E:     155 [290]:  035  [065]:  992
+96:  21/0000: 27.0S 122.0E:     200 [370]:  035  [065]:  994
+120: 22/0000: 30.6S 124.7E:     290 [535]:  025  [045]:  996
REMARKS:
Tropical Low 17U was located using Port Hedland radar, microwave imagery and
surface observations.

Microwave imagery at 2139 and 2159 UTC showed deep convection to the SW of the
centre. EIR showed deep convection near the centre in the last 6 hours, this has
weakened slightly in the last hour or so.

Dvorak: Curved band wrap of 0.5 gives at DT of 2.5. 24 hours ago the centre was
over land.   
ADT's are in reasonable agreement, though slightly higher [2.8/2.9]. Intensity
is set at 35 knots with gales in the southwest quadrant.

Conditions for development are favourable over open water, SSTs are in the range
27-29C, wind shear is low, there is evidence of good outflow aloft and upper
divergence to the south of the low. Recent movement has been towards the S/SW.
The system should reach tropical cyclone intensity this afternoon or evening as
motion slows due to the steering being finely balanced. Later Saturday and on
Sunday, an upper level trough will help steer the system towards the S/SE. It
may reach category 2 [55 knot 10 min average] intensity overnight or early
Sunday prior to crossing the coast between Pardoo Roadhouse and Bidyadanga
during Sunday.

After weakening below tropical cyclone intensity over the inland east Pilbara,
gales may persist to the east of the system due to the interaction with a ridge
to the southeast.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 17/0730 UTC by Perth TCWC.

霧峰追風者

BoM 06Z近岸命名"Kelvin"，逐漸增強上望澳式c2。

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0708 UTC 17/02/2018
Name: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 19.2S
Longitude: 120.4E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [210 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [4 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 990 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code:  T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  17/1200: 19.4S 120.6E:     040 [080]:  045  [085]:  983
+12:  17/1800: 19.5S 120.9E:     055 [100]:  050  [095]:  980
+18:  18/0000: 19.6S 121.2E:     065 [125]:  050  [095]:  976
+24:  18/0600: 19.7S 121.5E:     080 [145]:  045  [085]:  980
+36:  18/1800: 20.6S 122.2E:     100 [185]:  035  [065]:  990
+48:  19/0600: 22.0S 122.4E:     120 [220]:  035  [065]:  992
+60:  19/1800: 23.3S 122.4E:     140 [255]:  035  [065]:  996
+72:  20/0600: 24.8S 122.2E:     155 [290]:  035  [065]:  996
+96:  21/0600: 28.2S 122.5E:     200 [370]:  030  [055]:  996
+120: 22/0600: 31.3S 125.7E:     290 [535]:  025  [045]:  996
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Kelvin [17U] was located using Port Hedland radar, microwave
imagery and surface observations.

Partial ASCAT passes at 01 and 02 UTC showed gales to the southeast of the
centre. Recent visible imagery showed deep convection persisting near the
centre.

Dvorak: Shear pattern on EIR is <0.5 degree from strong T gradient. DT is 3.0.
Trend is D on EIR and VIS. MET/PAT is 3.0. FT/CI is 3.0. ADT is in reasonable
agreement [2.8]. Intensity set to 40 knots.

Conditions for development are favourable over open water, SSTs are in the
range27-29C, wind shear is low to moderate, and there is evidence of good
outflow aloft and upper divergence.

CIMSS shear at 0300 UTC showed ENE shear around 10 knots. Recent movement has
been towards the S/SW but is slowing as the steering flow is finely balanced

Later Saturday and on Sunday, an upper level trough will help steer the system
towards the SE. It may reach category 2 [50 knot 10 min average] intensity
overnight or early Sunday prior to crossing the coast between Pardoo Roadhouse
and Bidyadanga early Sunday morning. Recent guidance has a coastal crossing
earlier between late Saturday night to during Sunday morning. The limited time
over open water may limit intensification.

After weakening below tropical cyclone intensity over the inland east Pilbara,
gales may persist to the east of the system due to the interaction with a ridge
to the southeast.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 17/1330 UTC by Perth TCWC.