Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 292320 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 12F CENTRE [1005HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 18.3S
171.6E AT 292100UTC. TD12F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
HIMAWRI-8 VIS/IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION.
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
SUPPOSED LLLC. ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF AN
UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS
WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR TD12F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
18.6S 171.5E, APPROXIMATELY 189 NM EAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 300423Z SSMIS 91
89GHZ PARTIAL IMAGE SHOW A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION PRIMARILY LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE
LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) ARE SUPPORTIVE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 97P WILL DEVELOP
FURTHER AS IT TRACKS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 48-72
HOURS, BUT VARY IN THEIR DEPICTIONS OF THE INTENSITY TREND. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.6S 171.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.3S 173.1E, APPROXIMATELY
250 NM WEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 301756Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
AND ORGANIZED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (5-15 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITH A FORMATIVE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30
CELSIUS) ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE
THAT 97P WILL DEVELOP FURTHER AS IT TRACKS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
OUTSIDE OF 24 HOURS, BUT VARY IN THE TIMING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 302016 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12F CENTRE 1001HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8S 172.9E
AT 301800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIRIMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT
ABOUT 05 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT. OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN
THE PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 700HPA.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON ON 0.25 WRAP YIELDS DT=1.5. MET AND PT
AGREE. THUS, YIELDING T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR TD12F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 310600 UTC 18.1S 174.7E MOV E AT 09KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 311800 UTC 18.4S 176.1E MOV ESE AT 08KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 010600 UTC 18.8S 177.3E MOV ESE AT 07KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 011800 UTC 19.4S 178.1E MOV ESE AT 06KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 310200UTC.
WTPS21 PGTW 310230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.8S 173.8E TO 19.8S 178.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 310000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.0S 174.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.2S 173.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0S 174.1E, APPROXIMATELY
191 NM WEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 302147Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS INCREASINGLY
ORGANIZED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A COVERED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER AND DEEP CONVECTION CLOSE TO THE CENTER AND IN THE NORTHERN
BAND. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO BOTH POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97P WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEAR FUTURE AS IT TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
010230Z.//
NNNN
WTPS01 NFFN 311200
GALE WARNING 059 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 311318 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE JOSIE CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4
SOUTH 175.7 EAST AT 311200 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 18.4S 175.7E AT 311200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 11 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
40 KNOTS BY 010000 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 19.1S 177.3E AT 010000 UTC
AND NEAR 19.7S 178.4E AT 011200 UTC.
ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ
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