霧峰追風者

  副熱帶風暴  
編號：01 L
名稱：Alberto

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2018 年 05 月 22 日 05 時
命名日期　　：2018 年 05 月 25 日 23 時
撤編日期　　：2018 年 05 月 31 日 05 時
登陸地點　　：美國 佛羅里達州

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
國家颶風中心(NHC)：55 kts
海平面最低氣壓：990 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
90L-INVEST.20kts-1009mb-17.8N-84.7W


NHC : 0%

1. Widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the northwestern
Caribbean Sea across Cuba and the Florida peninsula are associated
with the interaction of a large upper-level low with a weak surface
trough.  While environmental conditions are expected to be
unfavorable for development during the next couple of days, some
gradual development is possible later this week while the system
moves into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across western Cuba
and Florida over the next several days.  For more information on
the heavy rain threat, please see products issued by your local
weather office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this
system will be issued by 800 PM EDT tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

霧峰追風者

NHC 展望提升至10%，將進入墨灣發展。

1. A broad surface low centered over the southeastern Yucatan
Peninsula has become better defined since yesterday, and it
continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and showers
extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba into the
Florida Straits.  Continued slow development of this system is
possible during the next couple of days as it drifts northward near
the Yucatan Peninsula.  Thereafter, environmental conditions are
forecast to become more conducive for development, and a subtropical
or tropical depression is likely to form this weekend over the
eastern or central Gulf of Mexico.  Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall is possible across western Cuba and the
Cayman Islands during the next few days, and over much of Florida
and the northern Gulf Coast during the weekend. For more information
on the heavy rain threat, please see products issued by your local
weather office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this
system will be issued by 800 AM EDT on Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

霧峰追風者

NHC 展望提升至70%，有機會成為北大首旋。

1. A broad surface low drifting slowly northward over the eastern
Yucatan Peninsula continues to become better defined. Although
showers and thunderstorms, along with strong gusty winds, remain
primarily over the adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean
Sea, environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive
for development through early next week, and a subtropical or
tropical depression is likely to form by late Saturday over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance Friday
afternoon, if necessary. Locally heavy rainfall is forecast across
western Cuba and over much of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast
into early next week. In addition, the threat of rip currents will
steadily increase along the Gulf coast from Florida westward to
Louisiana over the Memorial Day weekend. For more information on
these threats, please see products issued by your local weather
office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system
will be issued by 800 PM EDT this evening.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

霧峰追風者

NHC 12Z命名"Alberto",北大首旋，巔峰上望55kts。

000
WTNT41 KNHC 251444
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012018
1000 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

The broad low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking for
the past several days over the Yucatan Peninsula has finally moved
offshore over the waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Although the system possesses multiple low-level circulations, the
overall larger circulation has improved since yesterday. Given that
the system has been interacting with a sharp upper-level trough,
the strongly sheared low has been designated a subtropical storm.
The initial intensity is based on buoy and ship observations of
30-35 kt. Ship 3ETA7 located just northeast of the center at 1100Z
reported 45-kt winds at 50 meters elevation. Those winds equate to
35-40 kt at 10 meters elevation. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter Aircraft is scheduled to investigate Alberto later this
afternoon and provide more information on the storm's structure and
intensity.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 020/05 kt. The broad
inner-core wind field and multiple swirls makes the short-term
motion forecast a little tricky. However, a large subtropical ridge
to the east should generally induce a slow north to north-
northeastward motion for the next 24 hours or so. After that, the
ridge across the western Atlantic and Florida, along with a
mid/upper-level low forecast to develop over the central Gulf of
Mexico, should result in a faster northward motion at 36-48 hours,
followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest around the
northern fringe of the aforementioned mid/upper-level low. By 96
hours, the cyclone is forecast to slow down significantly as it
nears the north-central Gulf Coast due to a large weakness in the
subtropical ridge forecast to develop over the Deep South. The
official forecast track closely follows the consensus models TVCN
and HCCA.

Given the broad inner-core wind field and belligerent westerly wind
shear forecast to persist for the next 48 hours or so, only gradual
intensification is expected. By 72 hours, however, when the cyclone
is forecast to move slowly over above-normal SSTs of 28-29C and into
an upper-level col and weak wind shear, some additional
strengthening could occur. For now, the intensity forecast will
remain conservative due to possible intrusion of dry mid-level air
before landfall, and closely follows the HCCA consensus model.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Regardless of its exact track and intensity, Alberto is expected
to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over the northeastern
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba, southern Florida and the
Florida Keys. Rainfall and flooding potential will increase across
the central Gulf Coast region and the southeastern United States
later this weekend and early next week when Alberto is expected to
slow down after it moves inland.

2. Alberto could bring tropical storm conditions and storm surge to
portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast later this weekend
and early next week, although it is too soon to specify the exact
location and magnitude of these impacts. Residents in these areas
should monitor the progress of Alberto, as tropical storm and storm
surge watches may be required later today or tonight.

3. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions are affecting portions
of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba and will likely spread
along the eastern and central U.S. Gulf Coast later this weekend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/1500Z 19.7N  86.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  26/0000Z 20.5N  86.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  26/1200Z 22.0N  86.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  27/0000Z 24.1N  85.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  27/1200Z 26.7N  86.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
72H  28/1200Z 29.3N  87.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
96H  29/1200Z 31.0N  89.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
120H  30/1200Z 33.6N  88.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

ben811018

動作很快～即將登陸
記錄一下～

霧峰追風者

稍早判定登陸佛州!!

霧峰追風者

還沒消散!!目前移動到北緯41N，接近5大湖區域。