(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INV 95B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.2N
89.2E, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YANGON, MYANMAR.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION AND
BROAD TURNING ABOVE AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS LOW (10-15 KTS), AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS EXCELLENT DUE
TO RADIAL OUTFLOW. SSTS ARE VERY WARM (29-30C) IN THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A
NORTHEASTERN TRACK TOWARD MYANMAR, WITH 95B POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE AROUND TAU 24-36 BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.7N 71.9E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.2N 89.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 90.9E, APPROXIMATELY 430
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 281204Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
BROAD CIRCULATION WITH A BAND OF FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE
SOUTH, BUT NOT WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 280319Z OSCAT PASS SHOWS
MOSTLY STRAIGHT LINE FLOW WITH A WEAK CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY 15
20 KNOT WINDS AND STRONGER (35 KNOT WINDS) TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW (5-15 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-32 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THE DISTURBANCE TRACKING TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO IF IT
WILL CONSOLIDATE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
WTIO21 PGTW 290630
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.1N 91.7E TO 23.8N 95.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 290600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.0N 92.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.7N 90.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 92.0E, APPROXIMATELY 329
NM SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 290400Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. A RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT PASS
SHOWS 25-30 KNOT WINDS BARBS LOCATED IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DISTURBANCE IS THE LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. VERY WARM (30-32 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT THE SYSTEM AS IS TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST.
GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THE DISTURBANCE TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST BUT
ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO IF IT WILL CONSOLIDATE AND REACH TROPICAL
CYCLONE STRENGTH BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
300630Z.
//
NNNN
BULLETIN NO. : 01 (BOB 01/2018)
TIME OF ISSUE: 1500 HOURS IST DATED: 29.05.2018
Sub: Depression over northeast and adjoining eastcentral Bay of Bengal
Latest observations and satellite imageries indicate that the Well Marked Low Pressure Area
(WML) over eastcentral and adjoining northeast Bay of Bengal (BoB) has concentrated into a
depression and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 29
th May 2018 over northeast and adjoining
eastcentral BoB near latitude 18.50N and longitude 92.20E, about 170 km west-southwest of
Kyaukpyu (Myanmar) and 190 km south-southwest of Sittwe (Myanmar). It is very likely to intensify
further into a deep depression during next 6 hrs. It is very likely to move north-northeastwards and
cross Myanmar and adjoining Bangladesh coasts between Kyaukpyu and Teknaf (Bangladesh) close
to Sittwe around night of today, the 29th May 2018.
Sub: Depression intensified into a Deep Depression over northeast and adjoining
eastcentral Bay of Bengal
Depression over northeast and adjoining eastcentral Bay of Bengal (BoB) moved
northeastwards with a speed of 20 kmph during the past 6 hours and intensified into a Deep
Depression and lay centred at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 29
th May 2018 over northeast and
adjoining eastcentral Bay of Bengal near latitude 19.2
0N and longitude 93.0
0 E, about 60 km westsouthwest
of Kyaukpyu (Myanmar) and 100 km south-southwest of Sittwe (Myanmar). It is very
likely to continue to move northeastwards and cross Myanmar coast between Kyaukpyu and
Sittwe by midnight of today, the 29th May 2018.
Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table:
WTIO21 PGTW 291700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290621ZMAY18//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 290630). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 92.0E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 94.0E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTHEAST OF
CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES 95B HAS TRACKED INLAND AND WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. A 291510Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE PROVIDES STRONG EVIDENCE THAT
THE SYSTEM IS OVERLAND, HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE BANDING REMAINS
ORGANIZED AND WRAPS INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
BULK OF THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK INTO NORTHERN MYANMAR, THEREFORE, THERE IS NO
POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK BACK OVER WATER. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 992 MB. THERE IS NO LONGER
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.//
NNNN
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