霧峰追風者

  中度颱風  
編號：1805 ( 06 W )
名稱：馬力斯 ( Maliksi )


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2018 年 05 月 31 日 08 時
升格熱低日期：2018 年 06 月 04 日 08 時
命名日期　　：2018 年 06 月 08 日 02 時
停編日期　　：2018 年 06 月 12 日 02 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB)：33 m/s ( 12 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) ：35 m/s ( 65 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：60 kts ( TS )

海平面最低氣壓與暴風半徑
海平面最低氣壓：970 百帕
七級風半徑　　：150 公里
十級風半徑　　： 50 公里

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
90W-INVEST.15kts-NAmb-5.0N-135.0E


以上資料來自：CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

霧峰追風者

JTWC 05Z評級LOW

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.0N
119.6E, APPROXIMATELY 75 NM SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO PRINCESA,
PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH LARGE AREAS OF FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED ON ALL
SIDES. A 310140Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH DISORGANIZED AND SHALLOW FLARING CONVECTION. THE
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD EQUATORWARD
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-15 KNOTS), AND VERY
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (31+ CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST,
BUT NONE ARE IN AGREEMENT HOW FAST IT WILL BEGIN MOVING IN THAT
DIRECTION OR IF/WHEN IT WILL INTENSIFY. NAVGEM, GFS, AND ECMWF ARE
CURRENTLY SHOWING INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN
SEVERAL DAYS WHILE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT YET INITIALIZE THE
SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

ben811018

ＥＣ跟ＧＦＳ差異不小

只是ＧＦＳ把似乎把高壓看太弱了ＸＤ

ben811018

最新的系集

ben811018

補張31日12Z的系集




GFS跟EC難得有志一同
不過，走東岸還是走西岸，影響真的大不同
能不能解旱就得看這次了..

霧峰追風者

JTWC 00Z評級提升Medium

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.9N 132.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 129.4E, APPROXIMATELY 239
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 012206Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER(LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, WITH MODERATE DUAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. WARM SSTS EAST OF THE
PHILIPPINES REMAIN (28-29C) SUPPORTIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. A
RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWS 15-20 KNOT WINDS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA OF
CONCERN. DYNAMIC MODELS AGREE ON THE NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS, THEN TRACK NORTHWESTERLY TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINES BUT
DISAGREE ON EXACT TIMING AND INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

nickli1004

霧峰追風者 發表於 2018-6-2 09:19
JTWC 00Z評級提升Medium

橘色應該是90W XD 看起來90 91會先互旋整併

nickli1004

霧峰追風者 發表於 2018-6-2 09:19
JTWC 00Z評級提升Medium

橘色應該是90W XD 看起來90 91會先互旋整併