(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.5N 144.5E, APPROXIMATELY 165 NM SOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION BEGINNING
TO WRAP INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION(LLC). THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL FAVORABLE, WITH LOW (5-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND ADEQUATE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW DUE TO A DEFINED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SSTS ARE WARM (28-29C) IN THE NWPAC AND WILL
SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY FAVOR A
NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY AS THE STORM DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
BUT VARY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.5N 144.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 141.8E, APPROXIMATELY
300 NM NORTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 120028Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVER
CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. A 120028Z
ASCAT PARTIAL PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY 5-
10 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER AND 20-30 KNOT WIND BARBS LOCATED NEAR
THE OUTER PERIPHERY. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA
OF EXCELLENT POLEWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-29 CELSIUS).
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN THE LATER TAUS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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