t02436

03Z報維持135節評價，下一次飛機實測在0530Z啟動。

WTPA41 PHFO 070248
TCDCP1

Hurricane Hector Discussion Number  27
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP102018
500 PM HST Mon Aug 06 2018

Hector has shown little change in satellite imagery today and
remains very impressive. Continuous bursts of lightning have been
occurring within the eyewall, and the hurricane is maintaining an
annular structure. Fixes from HFO, SAB, and JTWC came in at 6.5/127
kt again, and CIMSS ADT yielded 132 kt. Given what was sampled by
morning reconnaissance aircraft and the lack of significant change
in the satellite presentation, the initial intensity will be held at
135 kt. Unfortunately, the US Air Force Reserve 53rd Weather
Reconnaissance Squadron had to cut its mission short this morning,
but the next mission will occur this evening around 0530 UTC.

The initial motion of Hector is toward the west-northwest (285
degrees) at 14 kt. Hector took on a slight northward drift today as
the deep ridge to the north weakened. The ridge will move to the
north of Hawaii on Tuesday, which should cause Hector to resume a
motion toward due west and take the hurricane just south of the
Hawaiian Islands on Wednesday. As a result, a Tropical Storm
Watch remains in effect for the Big Island of Hawaii. Aside from a
slight adjustment to the north, little change was made to the track
forecast. The forecast lies down the middle of a fairly tightly
clustered guidance suite during the next 72 hours and runs near to
just north of the TVCN. On days four and five, a gradual turn toward
the west-northwest is expected as the deep ridge to the north
weakens.

Hector is expected to remain a major hurricane during the next
couple of days. The system is in a low vertical wind shear
environment, and with nearby sea surface temperatures just over 27C,
Hector is near its maximum potential intensity according the SHIPS
guidance. There will be only minor fluctuations in sea surface
temperature during the next 72 hours and continued low vertical
wind shear, though models indicate mid level dry air affecting the
hurricane. So far, this has not had much of an effect on Hector,
leading to lower confidence in the intensity forecast. The forecast
rate of weakening was decreased with this advisory and is line with
the dynamical models, while keeping Hector stronger than SHIPS and
LGEM during the next 72 hours. Thereafter, little change in
intensity is expected as sea surface temperatures increase along the
track.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0300Z 15.7N 144.7W  135 KT 155 MPH
12H  07/1200Z 16.1N 146.9W  130 KT 150 MPH
24H  08/0000Z 16.4N 149.7W  125 KT 145 MPH
36H  08/1200Z 16.6N 152.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
48H  09/0000Z 16.7N 155.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
72H  10/0000Z 16.9N 161.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
96H  11/0000Z 17.3N 167.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  12/0000Z 18.5N 172.5W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Wroe

t02436

03Z報維持135節評價，下一次飛機實測在0530Z啟動。

WTPA41 PHFO 070248
TCDCP1

Hurricane Hector Discussion Number  27
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP102018
500 PM HST Mon Aug 06 2018

Hector has shown little change in satellite imagery today and
remains very impressive. Continuous bursts of lightning have been
occurring within the eyewall, and the hurricane is maintaining an
annular structure. Fixes from HFO, SAB, and JTWC came in at 6.5/127
kt again, and CIMSS ADT yielded 132 kt. Given what was sampled by
morning reconnaissance aircraft and the lack of significant change
in the satellite presentation, the initial intensity will be held at
135 kt. Unfortunately, the US Air Force Reserve 53rd Weather
Reconnaissance Squadron had to cut its mission short this morning,
but the next mission will occur this evening around 0530 UTC.

The initial motion of Hector is toward the west-northwest (285
degrees) at 14 kt. Hector took on a slight northward drift today as
the deep ridge to the north weakened. The ridge will move to the
north of Hawaii on Tuesday, which should cause Hector to resume a
motion toward due west and take the hurricane just south of the
Hawaiian Islands on Wednesday. As a result, a Tropical Storm
Watch remains in effect for the Big Island of Hawaii. Aside from a
slight adjustment to the north, little change was made to the track
forecast. The forecast lies down the middle of a fairly tightly
clustered guidance suite during the next 72 hours and runs near to
just north of the TVCN. On days four and five, a gradual turn toward
the west-northwest is expected as the deep ridge to the north
weakens.

Hector is expected to remain a major hurricane during the next
couple of days. The system is in a low vertical wind shear
environment, and with nearby sea surface temperatures just over 27C,
Hector is near its maximum potential intensity according the SHIPS
guidance. There will be only minor fluctuations in sea surface
temperature during the next 72 hours and continued low vertical
wind shear, though models indicate mid level dry air affecting the
hurricane. So far, this has not had much of an effect on Hector,
leading to lower confidence in the intensity forecast. The forecast
rate of weakening was decreased with this advisory and is line with
the dynamical models, while keeping Hector stronger than SHIPS and
LGEM during the next 72 hours. Thereafter, little change in
intensity is expected as sea surface temperatures increase along the
track.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0300Z 15.7N 144.7W  135 KT 155 MPH
12H  07/1200Z 16.1N 146.9W  130 KT 150 MPH
24H  08/0000Z 16.4N 149.7W  125 KT 145 MPH
36H  08/1200Z 16.6N 152.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
48H  09/0000Z 16.7N 155.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
72H  10/0000Z 16.9N 161.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
96H  11/0000Z 17.3N 167.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  12/0000Z 18.5N 172.5W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Wroe

蜜露

這個颶風實測很厲害 , SFMR達到了Cat.5的水平..最高一度測到了153Kts


在實測兩小時前, SSIMS底層有190半環的趨勢 . 貨真價實的實力肯定.


赫克托直逼瑪莉亞 .

實測近巔峰確認是938hPa  137Kts














這張接近實測的時間 . 非常完美的颶風 ..






EC的預報上七天後進入西太平洋 .

蜜露

赫克托一天前有過環狀的底層 , 但是所經過的地方是地雷區(像瑪莉亞靠近台灣那次一樣)..底層大幅的衰退。
強度也減弱不少。










要等到12h後 , OHC環境才會轉好 。 應該會有一次增強 ..
速度很快 , 進入西太可能比預期偏北。


赫克托巔峰時間感覺沒有那麼瑪莉亞穩定。

t02436

已經通過夏威夷，預估三天後加速往西北方移動，下周一晚間進入西太平洋。

WTPA41 PHFO 090919
TCDCP1

Hurricane Hector Discussion Number  36
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP102018
1100 PM HST Wed Aug 08 2018

Based on reflectivity data from the South Point WSR-88D radar om the
Big Island, microwave images, and satellite data, it appeared that
Hector went through an eyewall replacement cycle late this
afternoon. Since this reorganization of the hurricane appears to
be complete now, the eye of Hector has warmed and become much better
defined in infrared satellite imagery during the past few hours. As
a result, the satellite fix agencies provided subjective Dvorak
satellite-based intensity estimates ranging from 102 kt to 115 kt.
The latest ADT estimate from UW-CIMSS is near 105 kt. Based on a
blend of all of this input, we are maintaining the initial intensity
for this advisory at 100 kt. Hector has been traveling nearly due
west this evening, so the latest motion is 270/14 kt. Note that
Hector passed about 25 n mi south of buoy 51004 earlier this
evening. Wind gusts of 66 kt and seas up to 30 feet were observed at
this buoy around 0700z this evening.

Hector is expected to continue moving westward along the southern
periphery of a strong mid-level ridge located north of the main
Hawaiian Islands. This ridge is forecast to move little through
Thursday. Hector is expected to gradually turn toward the
west-northwest in 36-48 hours as it reaches the southwestern
periphery of the ridge. After that, a more pronounced turn toward
the northwest is anticipated after 72 hours. The updated track
forecast lies close to the previous forecast and a tightly-packed
guidance envelope through day 3. Increased guidance spread on days 4
and 5 arises due to differences in the forecast strength and
position of the ridge, and a developing low aloft to the northwest
of Hector. The latest forecast adjusts the track slightly to the
right of the previous forecast. This is based on the latest
consensus guidance, including the TVCN and GFEX, as well as the
HWRF.

Since Hector appears to be maintaining its intensity after the
eyewall replacement cycle, we have opted to keep its intensity
steady through 48 hours. After that, some gradual weakening is
possible from days 3 through 5 as it starts to encounter cooler
water temperatures and increasing southwesterly shear. Interests on
Johnston Island should monitor the progress of Hector. Based on the
latest wind speed probabilities, a Tropical Storm Watch may be
required for Johnston Island on Thursday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0900Z 16.6N 158.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
12H  09/1800Z 16.7N 160.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
24H  10/0600Z 17.0N 163.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
36H  10/1800Z 17.5N 166.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
48H  11/0600Z 18.4N 168.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
72H  12/0600Z 20.6N 173.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
96H  13/0600Z 24.0N 178.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  14/0600Z 27.5N 177.5E   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Houston

霧峰追風者

06Z強度再度增強為四級颶風。

霧峰追風者

08月06日22Z，強度達顛峰的Hector颶風。

t02436

重回C4，預估還會再稍微增強，即將開始轉向西北方向移動。

WTPA41 PHFO 100915
TCDCP1

Hurricane Hector Discussion Number  40
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP102018
1100 PM HST Thu Aug 09 2018

Hector continues to be a very impressive hurricane this evening.
The distinct eye has warmed, while the cloud top temperatures in
the surrounding eyewall have cooled. As a result, all of the
satellite fix agencies (PHFO, SAB and JTWC) provided subjective
Dvorak intensity estimates of T6.0/115 kt. In addition, the UW/CIMSS
ADT increased to T6.0/115 kt. Based on all of this guidance, the
initial intensity has been increased to 115 kt.

Hector's latest movement is 280/14 kt. The hurricane continues to
move just north of due west to the south of a mid-level ridge. The
western end of the ridge is forecast to weaken as a low pressure
system develops near the International Dateline during the next day
or two. This is expected to result in a gradual turn toward the
west-northwest on Friday, followed by a more northwestward track
from Friday night through this weekend. The forecast mostly follows
the previous advisory package though 48 hours. After that, the
latest forecast track was shifted slightly north from days 3 through
5. These subtle changes in the track were due to nudging toward the
HWRF, as well as the consensus models, such as TVCN and GFEX.

The latest intensity forecast, which is close to the previous
forecast beyond 12 hours, indicates additional slight
intensification through Friday morning. After that, we are expecting
gradual weakening from late Friday through Saturday evening. The
weakening trend is more significant beyond 48 hours as Hector moves
into an area of increasing vertical wind shear, as well as cooler
water temperatures. The current intensity forecast is also in line
with HWRF, HMON, and CTC2, which have verified the best so far.
These models also show a faster weakening after 48 hours, but the
forecast shows a more conservative weakening trend for now.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Johnston Island. If the
expected turn toward the west-northwest does not occur, tropical
storm conditions are possible there starting late Friday. Elsewhere,
interests in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, including Midway and
Kure Atolls and the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument west
of French Frigate Shoals should monitor the progress of Hector.
Based on the latest forecast, Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches
may be needed for these islands by late Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0900Z 17.4N 164.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
12H  10/1800Z 17.9N 166.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
24H  11/0600Z 18.9N 168.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
36H  11/1800Z 20.3N 170.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
48H  12/0600Z 22.4N 172.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
72H  13/0600Z 26.5N 177.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  14/0600Z 30.5N 177.5E   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  15/0600Z 33.5N 174.5E   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Houston

12Z速報維持115節評價。

10E HECTOR 180810 1200 17.6N 165.2W EPAC 115 951