(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
18.9N 136.6E, APPROXIMATELY 435 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 010054Z ASCAT PASS DEPICT A
BROAD REGION OF LOW LEVEL TURNING BELOW LIGHT, FLARING CONVECTION.
WARM (28-29C) SSTS, LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
ADEQUATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT CONTRIBUTE TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT THAT 93W
WILL MERGE WITH 94W IN THE MID-LATE TAU RANGE AS THE COMBINED SYSTEM
DEVELOPS INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.2N 138.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 133.2E, APPROXIMATELY
630 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 050110Z 89GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW
FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LLCC. A 050032Z
PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS A BROAD SWATH OF 15KT WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL
20KT WINDS WEST OF THE LLCC, HOWEVER, A 042310Z OSCAT IMAGE SHOWS A
MUCH STRONGER SWATH OF 20-25KT WINDS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH.
ADEQUATE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SSTS CREATE AN OVERALL FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY FAVOR 93W
INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY, SOME MAINTAINING IT AS A DISTINCT SYSTEM AND
SOME MERGING IT INTO TY 17W TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER SEVERAL DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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