(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
24.4N 175.3E, APPROXIMATELY 455 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MIDWAY.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
TURNING WITH SEPARATE AREAS OF CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST,
NORTHWEST, AND NORTHEAST. A 031828Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST AND SHALLOW FLARING
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE POSITION. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE,
MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26-27 CELSIUS). THE DISTURBANCE IS IN AN AREA
THAT IS WEAKLY BAROCLINIC AND THE THERMAL STRUCTURE IS INDICATIVE OF
A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE
WILL TRACK NORTHWARD AND WINDS WILL EXCEED 25 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BUT ALSO SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SUBTROPICAL.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
提升卡
千斤頂
