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93W JMA:TD 對流零星 組織鬆散 登陸浙江

簽到天數: 161 天

[LV.7]常住居民III

2018-8-23 10:30 | 顯示全部樓層
  熱帶低壓  
編號: 93 W
名稱:
93W.jpg

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期 :2018 08 23 10
升格熱低日期 :2018 08 24 14
撤編日期   :2018 08 27 00
登陸地點   :中國 浙江省

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
日本氣象廳  (JMA) :15 m/s ( 30 kt )
海平面最低氣壓: 1002 百帕

  討論帖圖片  
93W.INVEST.15kts.999mb.19.3N.135.0E

93W.jpg

以上資料來自:JMA、颱風論壇整理製作

點評

關注重點 高壓西伸幅度關鍵  發表於 2018-8-23 12:27

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2019擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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簽到天數: 161 天

[LV.7]常住居民III

asus5635|2018-8-23 10:34 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 asus5635 於 2018-8-23 10:36 編輯

現在好像只有GFS預測到這個系統
60.track.png

結構看起來也蠻鬆散的~

93W.jpg
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簽到天數: 2296 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2018-8-23 22:15 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC評級Low
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
19.3N 134.6E, APPROXIMATELY 570 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231207Z SSMIS
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH MOSTLY
SHALLOW FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS LOCATED PRIMARILY TO THE WEST
SIDE OF THE DISTURBANCE. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(28-29 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND MOST SHOW SOME DEGREE OF
CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION, HOWEVER, THEY ARE DIVIDED AS TO
THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF THE INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

abpwsair.jpg
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簽到天數: 35 天

[LV.5]常住居民I

傳奇@天氣人|2018-8-24 00:30 來自手機 | 顯示全部樓層
可能會襲臺??
93W_tracks_latest.png

點評

走這樣的話,高壓要很強,再觀察看看吧  發表於 2018-8-24 02:10
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簽到天數: 35 天

[LV.5]常住居民I

傳奇@天氣人|2018-8-24 14:26 來自手機 | 顯示全部樓層
持續往西接近臺灣的趨勢
201808241520-00.png

點評

EC&GFS兩大系統預測這隻會來台附近攪和,台灣霪雨不斷。  發表於 2018-8-24 16:54
發展不起來啊  發表於 2018-8-24 14:37
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簽到天數: 35 天

[LV.5]常住居民I

傳奇@天氣人|2018-8-24 17:22 來自手機 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA:TD
18082415.png
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2018-8-24 20:20 | 顯示全部樓層
06Z提升評級至Medium
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 19.3N 134.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 132.7E, APPROXIMATELY
400 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 240115 MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A
LARGE AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.
A 240114Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH ASYMMETRIC
WINDS, SHOWING LOWER (5-10 KNOTS) TO THE WEST AND HIGHER (15-20
KNOTS) TO THE EAST. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTION AND GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT AS
TO IF IT WILL INTENSIFY, HAVE INTERACTION WITH 24W, OR CONSOLIDATE
QUICKLY.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

abpwsair.jpg
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簽到天數: 35 天

[LV.5]常住居民I

傳奇@天氣人|2018-8-24 20:36 來自手機 | 顯示全部樓層
對流爆發中,可能有機會48小時內升格
201808242100-00.png

點評

這個要成颱機率不大。  發表於 2018-8-25 03:53
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