霧峰追風者

  輕度颱風  
編號：1823 ( 27 W )
名稱：百里嘉 ( Barijat )


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2018 年 09 月 06 日 11 時
升格熱低日期：2018 年 09 月 08 日 11 時
命名日期　　：2018 年 09 月 11 日 08 時
停編日期　　：2018 年 09 月 13 日 14 時
登陸地點　　：中國 廣東省 湛江市

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB)：20 m/s ( 8 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) ：20 m/s ( 40 kt )
中國氣象局 (CMA)：28 m/s ( STS )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：40 kts ( TS )

海平面最低氣壓與暴風半徑
海平面最低氣壓：995 百帕
七級風半徑　　：100 公里
十級風半徑　　：---- 公里

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
90W.INVEST.15kts-1008mb-13.3N-119.0E


以上資料來自：CWB、JMA、CMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

JTWC評級Low

(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
21.6N 128.6E, APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 060149Z 89GHZ MHS
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH SEVERAL POCKETS
OF SHALLOW FLARING CONVECTION. A 060110Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 5-10 KNOT WINDS. THE DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (5-15 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31
CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE
PHILIPPINES BUT ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT AS TO IF AND WHEN THE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP FURTHER. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT AFTER THE SYSTEM
EMERGES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA IT WILL BEGIN TRACKING NORTHWARD AND
INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

ben811018

【留意菲律賓低氣壓９０Ｗ】
目前在菲律賓西方近海有個熱帶擾動９０Ｗ正在發展，
五(07)、六(08)兩天會穿越呂宋島，
然後沿著菲律賓東岸北上，
碰到太平洋高氣壓後再轉向西北，
週日(09)到下週二(11)慢速從台灣附近通過。

至於是否成為颱風，
就要等他過了呂宋島之後的狀況才會比較明朗。

總之，９０Ｗ對台灣有一定威脅，
一定要注意，下週初天氣好壞就看他了。

傳奇@天氣人

預計兩天後在巴士海峽

ben811018

看來要跨呂宋有點難度
只好沿著海岸繞行經巴士海峽再到台灣東南方海面
然後在慢慢發展起來...

t02436

評級提升至Medium

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.1N 120.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 120.0E, APPROXIMATELY
414 NM SOUTHWEST OF ISHIGAKIJIMA, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. A 071721Z GPM
37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS CONSOLIDATING, ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WITH FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLC. A 071336Z METOP-B
ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE LLC AS SLIGHTLY ELONGATED WITH A SMALL PATCH
OF 20 KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED THE FORMATIVE BANDING. CURRENTLY, 90W
IS LOCATED IN AN AREA WITH MARGINALLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS WITH WEAK OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ON THE OTHER HAND, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AT 28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK NORTHWARD TOWARDS TAIWAN INTO AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH
VARYING LEVELS OF INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

ericlin6925

t02436 發表於 2018-9-8 08:47
評級提升至Medium

看來恒春半島，台東(或南花蓮)，台灣西南部(高雄以南)，有頗大的可能連遭兩個熱帶擾動侵襲，特別是山竹，我個人覺得走2016莫蘭蒂中心從恒春近海通過機會很大，只是北轉角度不如莫蘭蒂。

t02436

系統已經在巴士海峽