霧峰追風者

  強烈颱風  
編號：1824 ( 28 W )
名稱：潭美 ( Trami )


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2018 年 09 月 16 日 00 時
升格熱低日期：2018 年 09 月 20 日 08 時
命名日期　　：2018 年 09 月 21 日 20 時
停編日期　　：2018 年 10 月 01 日 11 時
登陸地點　　：日本 和歌山縣 田邊市

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB)：53 m/s ( 16 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) ：55 m/s ( 105 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：140 kts ( Cat.5 )

海平面最低氣壓與暴風半徑
海平面最低氣壓：915 百帕
七級風半徑　　：280 公里
十級風半徑　　：100 公里

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
92W.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-12.0N-164.6E


以上資料來自：CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

JTWC評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.2N
152.9E, APPROXIMATELY 510NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND AN 85GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM
171701Z, SHOW AN EXPOSED, ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH PATCHY
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-15
KNOTS) AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 29 AND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MODELS SHOW
POSSIBLE TC FORMATION TO THE EAST OF LUZON IN APPROXIMATELY 3 TO 5
DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

周子堯@FB

JTWC評級Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 152.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 150.2E, APPROXIMATELY 348 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 172319Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 172310Z SCATSAT IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH CONVERGENT WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW, ESPECIALLY POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH IS ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (28-30 CELSIUS) FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TAU 36, THEN MORE RAPID DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST OF GUAM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

hunter555

水溫30=>29~28.紀錄資料區域水溫資料.趨勢不佳.
導流場數據沒有明顯特徵.不是很看好.

2018.09.19 追加資料.
駛流場初步可見.但區域水溫持續下降.
N10.E142為基準點推估.
依舊營養不良.

zjk369

9月19号预测第一报
24号起有两个热带气旋一起生成 两个热带气旋名称叫潭美和康妮
第一个27号晚上16级登陆菲律宾后 30号上午9时10-12级登陆粤东
第二个是去日本海北上 对任何国家无害

傳奇@天氣人

可能需要留意92W的路徑

傳奇@天氣人

這數據有點浮誇

t02436

JMA 00Z升格TD

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 11N 147E WEST SLOWLY.