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1825 康芮 猛爆增強上C5 擦過南韓快速北上

簽到天數: 1719 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2018-9-22 22:49 | 顯示全部樓層
  強烈颱風  
編號:1825 ( 30 W )
名稱:康芮 ( Kong-rey )
1825.jpg

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2018 09 22 21
升格熱低日期:2018 09 28 14
命名日期  :2018 09 29 14
停編日期  :2018 10 07 02
登陸地點  :南韓 慶尚南道

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB):55 m/s ( 16 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) :55 m/s ( 105 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):140 kts ( Cat.5 )

海平面最低氣壓與暴風半徑
海平面最低氣壓:910 百帕
七級風半徑  :250 公里
十級風半徑  :080 公里

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
94W.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.10N.160E

20180922.1420.himawari-8.ircolor.94W.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.10N.160E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2020擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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簽到天數: 1119 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

周子堯@FB|2018-9-25 20:34 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC評級Low,數值普遍看好強度發展

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.9N
157.7E, APPROXIMATELY 70 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI, FEDERATED
STATES OF MICRONESIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A LARGE, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT YET
DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A
250245Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATES A POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH VERY WEAK CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM POHNPEI REVEAL SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5 KNOTS
AND SLP NEAR 1006MB. A 242234Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED,
DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20-25 KNOT CONVERGENT WESTERLY WINDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND 10-15 KNOT EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH AND CONVERGENT FLOW OVER
THE SYSTEM OFFSET BY WEAK DIFFLUENCE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A
DISTINCT LLCC WILL DEVELOP AND CONSOLIDATE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS LARGE CIRCULATION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS WITH
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
GUAM AFTER DAY TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

abpwsair-G.jpg
20180925.1210.himawari-8.ir.94W.INVEST.15kts.1004mb.7.8N.157.5E.100pc.jpg




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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2018-9-26 20:06 | 顯示全部樓層
06Z評級提升至Medium
  (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.3N 158.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.4N 157.7E, APPROXIMATELY 388
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN ELONGATED, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
PERSISTENT YET DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN QUADRANTS. A 252317Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS TROUGHING WITH NO
DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER WITH 15-20 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND 10-15 KNOT EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG WESTWARD OUTFLOW PARTIALLY OFFSET BY WINDS
CONVERGING FROM THE EAST AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR RANGING FROM 15 TO
30 KNOTS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT 29 TO 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH THE MODELS DISAGREEING ON HOW QUICKLY AND TO WHAT EXTENT
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

abpwsair.jpg

rbtop-animated.gif

點評

這隻應該是準康芮。  發表於 2018-9-26 20:53
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[LV.8]以壇為家I

米蟲|2018-9-27 08:29 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 米蟲 於 2018-9-27 08:31 編輯

這顆如果跟著潭美的腳步漂過去 日本就 Combo 了..... (汗

不過似乎會經過潭美留下的冷水坑(?

94W_gefs_latest.png

點評

EC本來也是這路徑,昨天開始預測走類似山竹的路徑  發表於 2018-9-27 08:54
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

ben811018|2018-9-27 10:16 | 顯示全部樓層
esrl.eps.ecmb.skp.94W.2018.168.png

EC系集
滿收斂的XD~
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[LV.1]初來乍到

jef493600|2018-9-27 10:24 來自手機 | 顯示全部樓層
ben811018 發表於 2018-9-27 10:16
EC系集
滿收斂的XD~

請教管理員如何把 手機版頁面更正為電腦版 這樣才能能夠使用點評聊天

點評

有了 感謝各位^_^  發表於 2018-9-27 12:32
如果以我的手機來說 畫面的右上方 有三個點 點開它 往下拉 就會有一個切換成電腦版本  發表於 2018-9-27 11:52
iphone的話網址欄的重新整理網頁的符號按著不放就會出現切換電腦版的選項,android部分請其他大大補充  發表於 2018-9-27 11:47
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2018-9-27 16:21 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC發布TCFA
wp9418.gif

20180927.0531.f16.91pct91h91v.94W.INVEST.20kts.1004mb.5N.155.6E.095pc.jpg

94W_gefs_latest.png

eps_WPAC_current.png

rbtop-animated.gif

點評

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/  發表於 2018-9-27 20:43
預測似乎不管怎麼算 要命中台灣機率不高  發表於 2018-9-27 19:28
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[LV.5]常住居民I

傳奇@天氣人|2018-9-27 17:23 來自手機 | 顯示全部樓層
這隻有機會挑戰山竹的強度的可能。
vis0-lalo.gif
94W_gefs_latest.png

點評

挑戰山竹...?要不要再更新一下資訊再說= =  發表於 2018-9-29 06:20
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