霧峰追風者

  四級颶風  
編號：11 L
名稱：Sergio

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2018 年 09 月 28 日 02 時
命名日期　　：2018 年 09 月 29 日 23 時
撤編日期　　：2018 年 10 月 00 日 00 時
登陸地點　　：墨西哥 南下加利福尼亞州
　　　　　　　　　　 索諾拉州


  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 ：120 kt
海平面最低氣壓 ：943 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
92E.INVEST.15kts-1008mb-10.8N-97.5W



NHC : 50%

1. Satellite data and reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the circulation associated with an area of low
pressure a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has
become a little better defined since yesterday.  Environmental
conditions appear favorable for additional development, and a
tropical cyclone is likely to form over the weekend or early next
week while it moves west-northwestward well offshore of the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

霧峰追風者

NHC 展望提升至70%。

1. An area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles south of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to gradually become better organized.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development,
and a tropical cyclone is expected to form over the weekend while it
moves west-northwestward well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

t02436

NHC 16Z緊急升格21E並命名Sergio，巔峰暫時上望95節。

354
WTPZ41 KNHC 291535
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Sergio Special Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018
1030 AM CDT Sat Sep 29 2018

Satellite imagery indicates that convection associated with the low
pressure area south-southwest of Acapulco has continued to become
better organized, with the low-level center embedded under the
convective overcast and near a developing complex of bands in the
southeastern semicircle.  Based on this and continuity from earlier
scatterometer data, advisories are being initiated on Tropical
Storm Sergio with 35 kt winds.

Sergio is expected to be in an environment of light vertical shear
and high humidity, and over warm sea surface temperatures for the
next 3 days or so, which should result in steady strengthening. Near
the end of the forecast period, the storm may encounter increasing
northeasterly shear which could limit intensification. The intensity
forecast, which is near the intensity consensus, calls for steady
strengthening through 96 h, with Sergio becoming a hurricane by 48
h.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 285/11.  Sergio should
be steered generally westward for the next three days or so by the
subtropical ridge over Mexico.  After that time, the cyclone should
approach a weakness in the ridge caused by a large mid- to
upper-level trough over California, and this should lead to a turn
toward the northwest.  The track guidance is in good agreement
with this scenario, and the forecast track lies near the HCCA
corrected consensus model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1530Z 12.4N 102.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  30/0000Z 12.7N 103.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  30/1200Z 12.9N 105.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  01/0000Z 12.9N 107.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  01/1200Z 12.8N 109.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  02/1200Z 13.0N 113.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
96H  03/1200Z 15.0N 117.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  04/1200Z 16.5N 119.0W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

t02436

風眼轉出來了，15Z評價85節，持續上望105節。

103
WTPZ41 KNHC 021433
TCDEP1

Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018
900 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018

The cloud pattern of Sergio continues to become better organized on
satellite imagery.  The hurricane has a very cold cloud-topped
central dense overcast, with a developing eye, surrounded by curved
banding features.  The current intensity is set at 85 kt based on a
blend of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates.  Sergio is
forecast to continue moving over warm waters, under moderate
vertical shear and within a moist mid-level airmass for the next
few days.  Therefore, additional strengthening is likely, and Sergio
will probably become a major hurricane in a day or so.  The official
intensity forecast is close to the latest model consensus, IVCN.

The hurricane has been moving westward at a slightly slower pace,
and the motion estimate is 270/11 kt.  A mid-level ridge to the
north of the system will soon be eroding, due to a trough dropping
in from the northwest.  This change in steering currents should
result in Sergio turning toward the west-northwest today followed
by a northwestward motion in 2-3 days.  In the latter part of the
forecast period, the ridge builds back in, and this is likely to
cause the tropical cyclone to turn back toward the west.  The NHC
track forecast is similar to the previous one and follows the
dynamical model consensus, TVCN, fairly closely.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 10.6N 114.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
12H  03/0000Z 11.2N 115.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
24H  03/1200Z 12.2N 116.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
36H  04/0000Z 13.3N 118.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
48H  04/1200Z 14.3N 119.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
72H  05/1200Z 15.9N 122.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
96H  06/1200Z 16.5N 125.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 16.5N 128.0W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

t02436

09Z報已升MH，15Z報再調升評價到110節

262
WTPZ41 KNHC 031432
TCDEP1

Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018
800 AM PDT Wed Oct 03 2018

Sergio has intensified this morning, with the eye becoming better
defined while embedded in very cold cloud tops.  The upper-level
outflow is restricted to the northeast of the hurricane, but strong
over the southern part of the circulation.  Using a blend of
objective and subjective Dvorak estimates, the advisory intensity
estimate is 110 kt.  Sergio will remain over warm waters of nearly
29 deg C,  with moderate shear and a humid mid-level air mass for
the next day or so.  Thus, some additional strengthening is forecast
in the short term.  In a couple of days, slightly cooler waters and
some entrainment of dry air is likely to cause a gradual weakening
trend to begin.  The NHC forecast is at the high end of the
intensity model guidance, and shows Sergio remaining a hurricane
throughout the entire forecast period.

The hurricane has turned toward the northwest, and is now moving at
about 305/9 kt.  This turn is probably being caused by a weakness in
the mid-level ridge associated with a trough nearing southern
California.  As the trough moves away from the area, the global
models predict that a ridge will rebuild to the north of Sergio in
a couple of days.  This should result in a turn toward the
west-northwest and west at 48 hours and beyond.  The official track
forecast is close to the simple and corrected dynamical model
consensus predictions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 12.9N 117.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
12H  04/0000Z 13.6N 118.3W  120 KT 140 MPH
24H  04/1200Z 14.7N 119.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
36H  05/0000Z 15.6N 120.9W  120 KT 140 MPH
48H  05/1200Z 16.2N 122.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
72H  06/1200Z 16.3N 124.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
96H  07/1200Z 16.3N 127.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  08/1200Z 17.0N 130.0W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

霧峰追風者

強度升四級颶風，預計還有小幅度增強。

932
WTPZ41 KNHC 040236
TCDEP1

Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018
800 PM PDT Wed Oct 03 2018

Sergio is quite the sight tonight over the eastern Pacific with a
large central dense overcast and mesovortices observed within the
well-defined eye.  Subjective estimates from TAFB and SAB both
support a slightly higher initial wind speed of 115 kt on this
advisory, which is a good compromise between lower microwave
estimates but higher ADT values.  Notably, Sergio is the record most
8th category 4 hurricane of the 2018 eastern Pacific season-
breaking the old record of 7 set in 2015. Reliable records in the
eastern Pacific for major hurricanes go back to 1971.

Further strengthening is possible during the next day or so while
the shear is forecast to remain low and the water is quite warm.
After that time, a combination of cooling waters and higher shear
should generally cause Sergio to weaken.  This will probably be an
unsteady process, however, since eyewall cycles are also likely over
the next few days.  Overall, the hurricane should be on a weakening
trend, and that is the NHC forecast, very similar to the previous
one, and a bit higher than the model consensus.

Sergio is moving northwest or 315/8.  This motion should gradually
bend toward the west over the next day or two as the steering flow
changes from a ridge near Mexico to a building ridge to the
northwest of the hurricane.  Sergio could turn to the northwest
early next week as the hurricane comes under the influence of
a deepening trough over the far eastern Pacific and southwestern
United States. The model guidance is in excellent agreement during
the next few days, and no significant changes were required to the
previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 13.8N 118.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
12H  04/1200Z 14.6N 119.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
24H  05/0000Z 15.5N 120.4W  120 KT 140 MPH
36H  05/1200Z 15.9N 121.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
48H  06/0000Z 15.9N 122.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
72H  07/0000Z 15.6N 125.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
96H  08/0000Z 15.8N 128.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  09/0000Z 17.0N 129.0W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

t02436

昨天登陸下加利福尼亞半島，持續深入內陸，NHC 21Z判定消散。

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Remnants Of Sergio Discussion Number  54
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018
300 PM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018

The center of Sergio moved over the high terrain of northwestern
Mexico and no longer has a well-defined circulation center. On
this basis, NHC has issued the last advisory on this system. The
remnants of Sergio will move toward the northeast about 22 kt and
could still produce gusty winds in heavy squalls.

Sergio's remnants will continue to produce heavy rains which
could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides
within mountainous terrain in northwestern Mexico. Flash
flooding is also possible across the U.S. Desert
Southwest and the Southern Plains through the weekend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/2100Z 29.3N 109.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...REMNANTS OF SERGIO
12H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

NNNN