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1826 玉兔 巔峰直襲天寧島 置換重回強颱 登呂宋後於南海消散

簽到天數: 1564 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2018-10-19 11:24 | 顯示全部樓層
  強烈颱風  
編號:1826 ( 31 W )
名稱:玉兔 ( Yutu )
1826.jpg

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2018 10 19 10
升格熱低日期:2018 10 21 08
命名日期  :2018 10 22 02
停編日期  :2018 11 02 14
登陸地點  :菲律賓 呂宋島

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB):60 m/s ( 17 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) :60 m/s ( 115 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):155 kts ( Cat.5 )

海平面最低氣壓與暴風半徑
海平面最低氣壓:905 百帕
七級風半徑  :250 公里
十級風半徑  :100 公里

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
97W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.9N.166E

20181019.0250.himawari-8.vis.97W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.9N.166E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2019擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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簽到天數: 595 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2018-10-20 03:36 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 18Z評級Low
abpwsair (1).jpg 20181019.1850.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.97WINVEST.15kts-1008mb-82N-1647E.100pc.jpg 97W_geps_latest.png

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

zjk369|2018-10-20 09:04 | 顯示全部樓層
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.2N
164.7E, APPROXIMATELY 1212 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY-ORGANIZED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE
DUAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS) IN THE
SURROUNDING AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT INDICATING TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH IN THE
NEXT 48-60 HOURS, HOWEVER DIFFER ON TRAJECTORY. THE EUROPEAN MODELS
ALONG WITH NAVGEM MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY WHILE GFS DEVELOPS
THE DISTURBANCE EAST OF SAIPAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

周子堯@FB|2018-10-20 10:50 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 周子堯@FB 於 2018-10-20 10:52 編輯

JMA 00Z判定為LPA,數值持續看好發展
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 09N 164E WEST SLOWLY
18102009.png
abpwsair.jpg
(補JTWC---Low圖)
20181020.0220.himawari-8.vis.97W.INVEST.15kts.1008mb.8.3N.163.1E.100pc.jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

zjk369|2018-10-20 13:20 | 顯示全部樓層
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.2N 164.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 163.1E, APPROXIMATELY
1125 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 200211Z GMI 89GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
POCKETS LOCATED NEAR THE CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(30-31 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE
QUICKLY AND INTENSIFY TO WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

abpwsair.jpg
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簽到天數: 595 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2018-10-21 07:59 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 21Z發布TCFA,看好發展。
WTPN21 PGTW 202130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.2N 161.3E TO 13.3N 146.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 201800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.1N 160.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.3N 163.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.1N 160.6E, APPROXIMATELY
981 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 201706Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS  LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-32 CELSIUS). GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY TO WARNING
CRITERIA WITHIN THE NEXT 18-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
212130Z.
//
NNNN
wp9718.gif 20181020.2320.himawari-8.vis.97W.INVEST.20kts.1008mb.8.1N.160.6E.100pc.jpg

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2018-10-21 12:22 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA 00Z升TD

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 08N 160E WNW SLOWLY.

18102109 (1).png

97W_gefs_latest.png

20181021.0350.himawari-8.ircolor.97W.INVEST.20kts.1009mb.8.2N.159.7E.100pc.jpg
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簽到天數: 1765 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

zjk369|2018-10-21 15:33 | 顯示全部樓層
日本氣象廳已發佈熱帶低氣壓GW

all-2018102115.png a-201810211500.png

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