霧峰追風者

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：25 E
擾動編號日期：2018 年 11 月 01 日 13 時
撤編日期　　：2018 年 11 月 00 日 00 時
94E.INVEST.25kts-1008mb-11.4N-111.5W



NHC : 60%

1. An elongated low pressure system located several hundred miles south
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a
broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development
during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later this week or this weekend while the system moves slowly
northwestward to northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

霧峰追風者

NHC 展望提升至80%，看好發展。

1. A low pressure system centered about 700 miles south of the southern
tip of the Baja California Peninsula has become better defined
since yesterday. Shower and thunderstorm activity is beginning to
show some signs of organization, and environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for the development of a tropical
depression during the next day or so while the system moves slowly
northward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

zjk369

熱帶氣旋形成警報WTPN21
發佈於02 / 0130Z
WTPN21 PHNC 020130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.4N 110.9W TO 16.4N 108.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 020000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.8N 110.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.8N 110.6W, APPROXIMATELY 338 NM SOUTH OF SOCORRO. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (AEIR) IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY A 012112Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT ALSO REVEALS
FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE NORTH OF THE LLC. A 011702Z METOP-B PARTIAL
ASCAT PASS SHOWS VERY ELONGATED TROUGHING WITH A SWATH OF 20 TO 25
KNOT WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE LLC. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
GENERALLY FAVORABLE WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS AND STRONG DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. REGIONAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 28 TO 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
WITH MODERATE INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030130Z.//NNNN

zjk369

• 
  

熱帶低氣壓25E（二十五）警告＃01
發佈於02 / 2200Z

• TC警告文字
• WTPN31 PHNC 022200MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020121ZNOV2018//AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.RMKS/1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25E (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 001       01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY    ---   WARNING POSITION:   021800Z --- NEAR 14.3N 109.2W     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 07 KTS     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 109.2W    ---   FORECASTS:   12 HRS, VALID AT:   030600Z --- 14.7N 108.3W   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 04 KTS    ---   24 HRS, VALID AT:   031800Z --- 15.2N 107.6W   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 04 KTS    ---   36 HRS, VALID AT:   040600Z --- 15.9N 107.1W   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS    ---   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:   48 HRS, VALID AT:   041800Z --- 16.7N 107.0W   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 02 KTS    ---   72 HRS, VALID AT:   051800Z --- 17.5N 107.4W   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS    ---   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:    ---   96 HRS, VALID AT:   061800Z --- 17.8N 109.0W   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS    ---   120 HRS, VALID AT:   071800Z --- 18.0N 111.5W   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW    ---REMARKS:022200Z POSITION NEAR 14.4N 108.9W.TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25E (TWENTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1185NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 07 KNOTSOVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030400Z, 031000Z, 031600Z AND 032200Z.2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 020130).//NNNN
  

霧峰追風者

NHC 03Z命名"Xavier"，巔峰僅上望45kt。

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 030836
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP252018
300 AM MDT Sat Nov 03 2018

A large burst of deep convection has developed over the northeastern
and eastern portions of Xavier's circulation overnight.  An earlier
GMI microwave overpass indicated that the center was located near
the southwestern edge of the convection, but there was evidence of
an increase in banding over the northeastern portion of the storm.
Dvorak data T-numbers from TAFB and SAB were T2.5 and T3.0,
respectively, so the initial intensity has been increased to
40 kt for this advisory.

Xavier is expected to remain embedded within an area of moderate
to strong southwesterly shear during the next 24 to 36 hours, and
these conditions are likely to prevent significant strengthening.
Although the statistical guidance shows no additional
intensification, the dynamical models deepen the system over the
next day or so, and the NHC forecast calls for a slight increase in
wind speed today, followed by little change in strength through
Sunday.  This is in good agreement with the latest HFIP corrected
consensus model.  By 48 hours the shear is expected to become even
stronger, and as a result, gradual weakening should occur
thereafter.  Xavier is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low
by day 4, if not sooner.

The aforementioned microwave pass was very helpful in locating the
center of Xavier.  Based on that data and recent satellite fixes,
the initial motion estimate is east-northeastward at about 6 kt.
The track forecast reasoning has not changed from the previous
advisory.  Xavier should turn northeastward, then northward by
tonight toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge created by a
deep-layer trough over central Mexico.  After Xavier weakens, the
cyclone should turn toward west-northwestward or westward as it
is steered by the low-level flow.  Since there is still a fair
amount of spread among the track models as to how far north Xavier
will move before it weakens and turns westward, the NHC track is
close to the various consensus aids at 48 hours and beyond.  Most
of the track models have trended a little faster after 48 hours,
and the official forecast has been adjusted accordingly.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 14.7N 107.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  03/1800Z 15.2N 107.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  04/0600Z 16.0N 106.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  04/1800Z 16.6N 106.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  05/0600Z 17.1N 106.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
72H  06/0600Z 17.5N 107.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
96H  07/0600Z 17.6N 110.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/0600Z 18.0N 112.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown