WTPN21 PGTW 261330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM IN EITHER DIRECTION FROM 7.4N 163.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE
18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 261200Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.4N 163.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
7.4N 163.0E, APPROXIMATELY 656 NM EAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 260539Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE SHOW A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
(5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, MODERATE OUTFLOW AND SUPPORTIVE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). AN 252214Z ASCAT METOP-B
IMAGE DEPICTS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING
IN FROM THE NORTH ALONG WITH A SWATH OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 93W WILL SLOWLY
DEVELOP, BUT REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. AFTER
THAT TIME THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE A NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY BUT TIMING
AND INTENSITY VARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
271330Z.
//
NNNN
WTPN21 PGTW 280200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/271321Z NOV 18//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW
271330)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.8N 164.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9N 166E, APPROXIMATELY 105 NM
WEST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) SATELLITE IMAGERY,
RADAR IMAGERY, AND A 272207Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW
A RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH WEAK CONVECTION. RECENT
OBSERVATIONS FROM KWAJALEIN 105 NM TO THE EAST SHOW THAT WINDS HAVE
WEAKENED FROM 19 KNOTS TO 11 KNOTS AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHED
KWAJALEIN. THE UL ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL MARGINAL, WITH VWS
INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS WHILE THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL JUST TO THE NORTH HAS STIFLED
OUTFLOW, LEADING TO THE DIMINISHED AND LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION. SSTS
REMAIN FAVORABLY WARM (28-30C) IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. GLOBAL
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A NORTHWEST TRACK WITH LIMITED POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED FURTHER OFF THEIR
PREDICTED INTENSITY, WITH MOST MAINTAINING MERELY AN AREA OF
MARGINALLY ENHANCED WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A WAVELIKE FEATURE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM. THIS CANCELS REF A.
//
NNNN
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.6N 165.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 164.6E, APPROXIMATELY
200 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH WEAK FLARING
CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL MARGINAL, WITH
MODERATE (15-25 KNOT) VWS AND WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT THAT ARE
INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT. SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLLY WARM (28-30C) IN THE
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON MAINTAINING THE SYSTEM AS
A WAVE WITH SOME WEAK ENHANCED WINDS PROPAGATING WESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
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