老農民版夜神月

  熱帶低壓  
編號： 35 W
名稱： 無


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期 ： 2018 年 12 月 23 日 02 時
JTWC升格日期 : 2018 年 12 月 24 日 20 時
升格熱低日期 ： 2018 年 12 月 25 日 14 時
撤編日期　　 ： 2018 年 12 月 30 日 17 時
登陸地點　　 ：菲律賓 薩馬島

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
日本氣象廳  (JMA) ：15 m/s ( 30 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：30 kts ( TD )
海平面最低氣壓： 998 百帕

  討論帖圖片  
96W INVEST 181222 1800 6.0N 146.0E WPAC 15


以上資料來自：JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

jrchang5

JTWC於12231930Z評級Medium。又目前EC以及GFS兩大數值均支持發展，值得繼續觀察。

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.7N 140.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.9N 139.2E, APPROXIMATELY 269
NM EAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
231635Z AMSR2 89 GHZ PARTIAL IMAGE SLOWLY A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE (15-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY STRONG OUTFLOW. RECENT ASCAT IMAGES REVEAL A DEVELOPING
LLCC WITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS LOCATED ABOUT 100 NM TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE CURRENT POSITION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN (28-
30 CELSIUS) SUPPORTIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT
TRACKS WESTWARD TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINE SEA OVER THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

jrchang5

目前所處環境極向流出良好、垂直風切中等、海溫夠高，有利未來發展。JTWC已於12240900Z發布TCFA。

WTPN21 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.9N 137.6E TO 10.0N 132.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 240600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.3N 136.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.1N 137.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.3N 136.9E, APPROXIMATELY 135
NM EAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 240807Z
SSMIS F-18 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE BOTH SHOW PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION OVER A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
SLIGHTLY SHEARED TO THE WEST. 96W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
FUTURE DEVELOPMENT WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15 TO
20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND HIGH (28 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 96W WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO INCREASED
CONVECTION AND IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
250900Z.//
NNNN

霧峰追風者

JTWC 12Z升格熱帶低壓35W。

35W THIRTYFIVE 181224 1200 7.3N 135.7E WPAC 25 1002

jrchang5

JTWC升格TD35W首報。由於目前垂直風切中等，呈現高低層分離現象，深對流分布在低層環流中心西北側。預計未來垂直風切降低後，將會逐漸增強，朝菲律賓群島中部接近。

WDPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (THRITYFIVE)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 35W (THIRTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
77 NM EAST OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA
OF PERSISTENT BUT SHEARED CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A PARTIAL 241155Z METOP-A ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWING 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. THIS IS IN LINE
WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS) FROM
PGTW AND KNES. TD 35W IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TD 35W ALSO HAS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW BUT NO
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD 35W IS TRACKING TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. THOUGH TAU 24, TD 35W WILL TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TOWARD A
TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE DURING THIS TIME BUT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL ALSO REMAIN MODERATE WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY
INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM. BY TAU 36, THE STR WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD ALLOWING TD 35W TO TRACK TOWARD THE WEST. ADDITIONALLY,
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL IMPROVE AND ALLOW TD 35W TO INCREASE IN
INTENSITY TO 45 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 125NM BY TAU 72. THEREFORE, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE.
HOWEVER, LAND INTERACTION WITH THE PHILIPPINES WILL PREVENT
INTENSIFICATION BEYOND 45 KNOTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED STR WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO STEER TD 35W WESTWARD. TD 35W WILL ALSO BEING TO INTERACT
WITH A SURGE EVENT IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BY TAU 120 WHICH WILL ALSO
PREVENT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION
OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

另一方面，JMA與CWB於12241200Z仍僅將35W判定為一低壓擾動。何時升格仍有待繼續觀察。
JMA：

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 08N 136E WNW SLOWLY.

CWB：

jrchang5

CWB於12241800Z已升格為TD。
另自12250020Z的可見光雲圖，亦可看出目前結構不佳，深對流分布於低層環流中心的北半側，有待未來垂直風切降低後改善。
CWB：

07fW01259
中央氣象局氣象報告
１０７年１２月２５日５時０分發布
１２月２５日２時天氣概況：
一、高氣壓１０２６百帕，在北緯３５度，東經１２４度
，即在黃海南部，向東移動，時速２５公里。

　　二、熱帶性低氣壓１００２百帕，在北緯７度，東經１３
６度，即在帛琉東方近海，向西北移動，時速１５公里。

另一方面，JMA終於亦判定此系統於12250600Z升格為TD。

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 08N 135E WNW SLOWLY.

ben811018

【熱帶低壓３５Ｗ，水氣影響元旦連假】


位於菲律賓東南方的熱帶低壓３５Ｗ逐漸發展中，
有機會在未來幾天更進一步增強，甚至有機會成為第３０號「帕布」颱風。

以目前資料來看，雖然３５Ｗ直接影響台灣的機會不高，不過，週末通過菲律賓後，他的外圍水氣就會順著高空氣流北上，進而影響元旦連假的天氣。

也就是說，元旦連假下雨機會相當高，同時東北季風持續帶來涼冷空氣，各地濕冷、濕涼感會相當明顯。

未來幾天多注意囉！！

老農民版夜神月

JMA 2512Z GW

熱帯低気圧
平成30年12月25日22時10分 発表
<25日21時の実況>
大きさ-
強さ-
熱帯低気圧
存在地域カロリン諸島
中心位置
北緯 8度55分(8.9度)
東経 134度40分(134.7度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧 1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)

<26日21時の予報>
強さ-
存在地域 フィリピンの東
予報円の中心
北緯 10度30分(10.5度)
東経 130度25分(130.4度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧 998hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 200km(110NM)