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03F(94P) 快速東南移動 掠過斐濟 無緣命名

簽到天數: 594 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2018-12-27 13:07 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2019-1-2 15:27 編輯

  熱帶低壓  
編號:03 F ( 94 P )
名稱:

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2018 12 27 12
撤編日期  :2019 01 02 15
登陸地點  :

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
斐濟氣象局 ( FMS ):30 kt
聯合颱風警報中心 ( JTWC ):30 kts ( TD )
海平面最低氣壓:994 百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  擾動編號資料  

94P.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-6.5S-164.6E

20181227.0430.himawari-8.vis.94P.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.6.5S.164.6E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:FMS、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2019擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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簽到天數: 594 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2018-12-29 05:50 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 17Z評級提升至Medium,機構看好發展。
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10S
164E, APPROXIMATELY 238 NM EAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 281820Z SSMIS
91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A RAGGED ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) THAT IS BECOMING MORE DEFINED, WITH FORMATIVE UPPER LEVEL
BANDING. OVERALL THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS), GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26-28 CELSIUS). MOST GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT ABOUT THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WITHIN 36 TO 60 HOURS AND
TRACKING EASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
abpwsair.jpg 20181228.2120.himawari-8.vis.94P.INVEST.20kts.1001mb.10S.164E.100pc.jpg 94P_gefs_latest.png

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霧峰追風者|2018-12-29 05:56 | 顯示全部樓層
FMS 編號熱帶擾動03F。
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD03F CENTRE[1002HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 09.8S
166.2E AT 282100 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI 8
VIS IMAGERY.

DEEP CONVECTION OVER SUPPOSED LLCC WITH GOOD ORGANISATION. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES OF AN UPPER RIDGE WITH
GOOD OUTFLOW IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT IN A
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IS LOW.
SHGMSCOL.JPG

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霧峰追風者|2018-12-30 09:43 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2018-12-30 09:47 編輯

FMS 開始發報,有機會在36H後命名。
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 292008 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 03F CENTRE 1003HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1S 167.9E
AT 291800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25
KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDUCED IN ARIEL EXTEND AND DISPLACED TO THE EAST
OF LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS NOT IMPROVED MUCH IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 700HPA. SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF AN
UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 29
DEGREES CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEAST WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 300600 UTC 11.4S 171.0E MOV E AT 15KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 301800 UTC 12.6S 173.8E MOV ESE AT 15KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 310600 UTC 14.2S 176.3E MOV ESE AT 15KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 311800 UTC 16.2S 179.0E MOV SE AT 15KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 300200 UTC.
65660.gif 20181230.0100.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.94PINVEST.25kts-999mb-108S-1692E.100pc.jpg
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霧峰追風者|2018-12-30 18:03 | 顯示全部樓層
FMS : TD 有機會命名,趨向斐濟。
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 300838 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F CENTRE 1000HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 170.3E
AT 300600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR AND VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD03F MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 4 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT
25 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT BUT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF LLCC.
ORGANISATION HAS NOT IMPROVED MUCH IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 700HPA. OUTFLOW GOOD. SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF
AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEAST WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 301800 UTC 12.8S 173.0E MOV ESE AT 15 KT WITH 25
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 310600 UTC 14.6S 175.4E MOV ESE AT 14 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 311800 UTC 16.9S 177.9E MOV SE AT 15 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 010600 UTC 19.5S 179.3W MOV SE AT 16 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
65643.gif 20181230.0740.f17.ir.olsircomp.94P.INVEST.x.jpg

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霧峰追風者|2018-12-30 18:58 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 09Z發布TCFA。
WTPS22 PGTW 300930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.0S 170.1E TO 16.6S 178.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 300600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.6S 171.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.0S 169.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6S 171.2E, APPROXIMATELY
410 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 300339Z SSMI F-15 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH POCKETS OF FLARING CONVECTION
LOCATED PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT POLEWARD DIVERGENCE, LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(27-29 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
INTENSIFICATION LIKELY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
310930Z.
//
NNNN
sh9419.gif

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霧峰追風者|2019-1-1 11:38 | 顯示全部樓層
FMS 最新一報已經不看好命名,逐漸南下。
65643 (1).gif 94p.png rgb-animated (2).gif rbtop-animated (3).gif

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霧峰追風者|2019-1-1 16:04 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 06Z取消TCFA,評級降低至Low。
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.5S 178.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 179.9E, APPROXIMATELY
210 NM NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 010305Z SSMI F-15 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION BECOMING SPARSER AND
MORE INCONSISTENT. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA
OF STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-
35 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THAT IT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND IS UNLIKELY
TO INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 994 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
abpwsair.jpg 20190101.0730.himawari-8.ir.94P.INVEST.30kts.998mb.16.1S.179.1W.100pc.jpg

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