開啟輔助訪問
 找回密碼
 立即加入

96S

簽到天數: 601 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2018-12-29 05:41 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2019-1-2 05:47 編輯

  基本資料  
編號    :96 S
擾動編號日期:2018 12 29 05
撤編日期  :2019 01 01 08
96S.INVEST.15kts-1007mb-11.0S-118.0E

20181228.1842.f15.37h.96S.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.11S.118E.065pc.jpg

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

查看全部評分

回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 868 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

jrchang5|2018-12-29 16:40 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC於12290730Z評級Low。
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.8S 116.6E, APPROXIMATELY 540 NM NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 290158Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION AND A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A RECENT 290200Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH SPARSE 25KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (BETWEEN 28-30
DEGREES CELSIUS). VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS UNFAVORABLE (GREATER THAN
25 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LIMITED OUTFLOW. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW SLOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 60-84 HOURS WITH POOR TRACK
GUIDANCE.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

abpwsair.jpg 20181229.0800.himawari-8.vis.96S.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.10.8S.116.6E.100pc.jpg 96S_gefs_latest.png

回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 601 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2018-12-30 16:41 | 顯示全部樓層
BoM 稍早升格熱帶低壓,不過不看好發展。
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Sunday 30 December 2018
for the period until midnight WST Wednesday 2 January 2019.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low lies to the south of Java near 12S 113E at 1200 WST Sunday. The environment is unfavourable for significant development of this system and it is not forecast to intensify into a tropical cyclone. There is a chance that heavy rainfall could develop over Christmas Island from Tuesday associated with this tropical low, though there is a reasonably high likelihood that the heaviest rainfall will remain to the north and east of the island.

There are no tropical systems expected to develop in the Western Region for the next three days.

Likelihood of a system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Monday:Very Low
Tuesday:Very Low
Wednesday:Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:less than 5%Low:5% to 20%
Moderate:20 to 50%High:Over 50%
20181230.0810.himawari-8.vis.96S.INVEST.25kts.1004mb.11.9S.111.6E.100pc.jpg

回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 601 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2018-12-31 08:58 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 取消評級。
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.6S 114.9E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
.
20181231.0020.himawari-8.vis.96S.INVEST.20kts.1006mb.12S.111.9E.100pc.jpg

回復

使用道具 舉報

快速回覆
您需要登錄後才可以回帖 登錄 | 立即加入

本版積分規則

本平台僅供學術討論之用,預報應以氣象局為準

威普網站虛擬主機贊助公司

臺灣第一個天氣類型社群平台 即時天氣資訊、精準颱風動態

線上客服
FB傳送訊息
廣告行銷
精準行銷 物超所值
官方粉專
發佈 快速回復 返回頂部 返回列表