(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.8S 116.6E, APPROXIMATELY 540 NM NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 290158Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION AND A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A RECENT 290200Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH SPARSE 25KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (BETWEEN 28-30
DEGREES CELSIUS). VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS UNFAVORABLE (GREATER THAN
25 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LIMITED OUTFLOW. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW SLOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 60-84 HOURS WITH POOR TRACK
GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Sunday 30 December 2018
for the period until midnight WST Wednesday 2 January 2019.
Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
A tropical low lies to the south of Java near 12S 113E at 1200 WST Sunday. The environment is unfavourable for significant development of this system and it is not forecast to intensify into a tropical cyclone. There is a chance that heavy rainfall could develop over Christmas Island from Tuesday associated with this tropical low, though there is a reasonably high likelihood that the heaviest rainfall will remain to the north and east of the island.
There are no tropical systems expected to develop in the Western Region for the next three days.
Likelihood of a system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:less than 5%Low:5% to 20%
Moderate:20 to 50%High:Over 50%