霧峰追風者

  中度颱風  
編號：1915 ( 14 W )
名稱：法西 ( Faxai )


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2019 年 08 月 29 日 19 時
升格熱低日期：2019 年 08 月 30 日 08 時
CWB升格日期: 2019 年 09 月 03 日 08 時
命名日期　　：2019 年 09 月 05 日 14 時
停編日期　　：2019 年 09 月 10 日 14 時
登陸地點　　：日本 千葉縣 千葉市

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB)：43 m/s ( 14 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) ：45 m/s ( 85 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：115 kts ( Cat.4 )
海平面最低氣壓：955 百帕
暴風圈半徑
七級風半徑　　：150 公里
十級風半徑　　：050 公里

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
90W.INVEST.15kts-1006mb-12.5N-179.5E


以上資料來自：CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

Alice3467

這隻可以期待是大物吧

光下葛

應該是可能生成的玲玲颱風吧

霧峰追風者

JMA 升格熱帶低壓，定位在換日線以東。

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 13N 179W WEST 10 KT.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC30/1200Z評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.7N 179.6E, APPROXIMATELY 757 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN.
A 300915Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH
20 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS AND LOW (<15 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SSTS ARE FAVORABLE AT 28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 90W TRACKING WESTWARD WITH SLOW INTENSIFICATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC31/2000Z提升90W評級為Medium

  (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.7N 175.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 174.4E, APPROXIMATELY  
486 NM NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 311723Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGE SHOW PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER A
COMPACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
FAVORABLE, WITH WARM (29-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (5-10
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND ADEQUATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE ON A WESTWARD TRACK BUT ARE SPLIT ON DEVELOPMENT
POTENTIAL, WITH GFS AND UKMO SHOW 90W BECOMING A COMPACT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AROUND TAU 48-72, WHILE NAVGEM AND ECMWF MAINTAIN IT AS A
WAVE WITH A SMALL REGION OF ENHANCED WINDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC01/0900Z發布TCFA

WTPN23 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90W)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/311851ZAUG19//
REF/B/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/311921ZAUG19//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.5N 172.0E TO 17.5N 165.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
010600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N
171.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF COVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.3N
172.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 171.5E, APPROXIMATELY 355NM
SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 010710Z SSMIS F-17 91GHZ MICROWAVE
PARTIAL IMAGE REVEALS THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC ALONG WITH
FORMATIVE BANDING EXTENDING TO THE NORTH. A 312240Z METOP-B ASCAT
PASS DEPICTS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLCC AND SMALL POCKETS OF 20 TO 25
KNOT WINDS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE 15 TO 20 KNOT WIND FIELD BEGINNING TO
WRAP INTO THE LLCC. 90W IS CURRENTLY IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, DEVLOPING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
(5 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (31 TO 32 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 90W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY, REACHING
WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
020900Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 118.3E. SEE REF B FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 130.7E.//
NNNN

jrchang5

JTWC 01/21Z升格為TD14W。

WTPN31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010851ZSEP2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   011800Z --- NEAR 15.2N 169.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 169.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z --- 15.7N 167.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z --- 16.4N 165.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z --- 17.2N 163.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z --- 18.2N 160.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 20.3N 156.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 22.6N 151.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 24.7N 146.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 169.4E.
01SEP19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
310 NM SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z
IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN23 PGTW 010900).//
NNNN