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1914 劍魚 路徑迂迴 登陸越南後命名 短暫發展

簽到天數: 1336 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

2019-8-30 02:25 | 顯示全部樓層
  輕度颱風  
編號:1914 ( 16 W )
名稱:劍魚 ( Kajiki )
1914.jpg

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2019 08 30 01
升格熱低日期:2019 08 30 08
CWB升格日期: 2019 09 01 20
命名日期  :2019 09 03 02
停編日期  :2019 09 03 20
登陸地點  :越南

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB):18 m/s ( 8 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) :18 m/s ( 35 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):30 kts ( TD )
海平面最低氣壓998 百帕
暴風圈半徑
七級風半徑  :80 公里
十級風半徑  :--- 公里

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
91W INVEST 190829 1800 18.0N 127.0E WPAC 15 1006
20190829.1800.himawari-8.ir.91W.INVEST.15kts.1006mb.18N.127E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2021擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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簽到天數: 601 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2019-8-30 09:25 | 顯示全部樓層
GFS預測一天後登陸台灣北部。
gfs_mslp_pcpn_wpac_6.png

點評

那是背風低壓 主系統還是從巴海通過進南海發展  發表於 2019-8-30 12:16
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2019-8-30 13:57 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA 00Z升TD
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 19N 126E ALMOST STATIONARY.

19083009.png

rb-animated.gif

91W_gefs_latest.png
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簽到天數: 1336 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2019-8-31 01:54 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC30/1200Z評級Low
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
17.9N 126.0E, APPROXIMATELY 306 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA. A 300645Z
85GHZ SSMI IMAGE DEPICTS LOW LEVEL BANDING WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. SSTS ARE FAVORABLE AT 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW 91W TRACKING WESTWARD WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

abpwsair0830.jpg avn0-lalo.gif
91W_gefs0_latest.png
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2019-8-31 15:45 | 顯示全部樓層
評級提升至Medium
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.9N 126.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 122.9E, APPROXIMATELY
78 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF APARRI, PHILIPPINES. AMSI SHOWS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FORMATIVE BANDING
WRAPPING FROM THE WEST. A 310107Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS THE AREA LARGELY DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. A 310150Z
ASCAT-C PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE LLC. 91W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SSTS BEING
OFFSET BY HIGH (20 TO 25 KNOT) VWS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 91W WILL TRACK WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND
INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

abpwsair.jpg

91W_gefs_latest.png

20190831.0700.himawari-8.vis.91W.INVEST.20kts.1003mb.19.2N.121.8E.100pc.jpg
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[LV.5]常住居民I

天篷大元帥|2019-8-31 22:40 | 顯示全部樓層
中央氣象局:熱帶性低氣壓
以下為該局資料
熱帶性低氣壓TD18
現況
2019年08月31日20時

中心位置在北緯 19.5 度,東經 119.5 度
過去移動方向 -
過去移動時速 -公里
中心氣壓 1005百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 12 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 20 公尺
預測
預測 12 小時平均移向移速為

西 時速 19 公里
預測 09月01日08時
中心位置在北緯 19.2 度,東經 117.4 度
中心氣壓1005百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 12 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 20 公尺
70%機率半徑 120 公里
預測 12-24 小時平均移向移速為

西 時速 25 公里
預測 09月01日20時
中心位置在北緯 19.2 度,東經 114.5 度
中心氣壓998百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 18 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 25 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 50 公里
70%機率半徑 150 公里
預測 24 小時有發展為輕度颱風的趨勢


TD18

TD18
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2019-8-31 22:48 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA12Z發布GW
熱帯低気圧
令和元年08月31日22時20分 発表

<31日21時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        バシー海峡
中心位置        北緯 19度30分(19.5度)
東経 119度35分(119.6度)
進行方向、速さ        西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧        1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<01日21時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        南シナ海
予報円の中心        北緯 19度05分(19.1度)
東経 114度30分(114.5度)
進行方向、速さ        西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧        1000hPa
最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        150km(80NM)

a-00.png

rbtop-animated.gif

wpac.png
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2019-9-1 03:59 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC31/1900Z發布TCFA
WTPN21 PGTW 311900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.8N 119.0E TO 18.2N 109.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 311800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.8N 118.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) LOCATED NEAR 18.8N
118.3E, APPROXIMATELY 295 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, THE
PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
311332Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN ARC OF THE SYSTEM. A 311334Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS A
BROAD REGION OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS THROUGH THE STRAIT OF LUZON, TAKING
ON SOME CURVATURE NEAR THE LLCC. THE ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH WARM (30-32C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, LOW (5-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW OVER THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND HIGH SHEAR ARE
CURRENTLY LIMITING CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
DISTURBANCE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91W WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS IT TRACKS WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER, THE DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN BROAD AND CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
CHARACTERISTICS OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
011900Z.//
NNNN
wp9119.gif 91W_311900sair.jpg
f2213912b31bb0513e035d10397adab44aede0be.jpg

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