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1913 玲玲 直襲宮古島 陣風61.2m/s破紀錄 登陸北韓轉化

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[LV.10]以壇為家III

2019-8-30 16:12 | 顯示全部樓層
  中度颱風  
編號:1913 ( 15 W )
名稱:玲玲 ( Lingling )
1913.jpg

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2019 08 30 15
升格熱低日期:2019 08 31 08
CWB升格日期: 2019 09 01 20
命名日期  :2019 09 02 08
停編日期  :2019 09 08 08
登陸地點  :北韓 黃海南道

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB):45 m/s ( 14 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) :45 m/s ( 90 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):120 kts ( Cat.4 )
海平面最低氣壓940 百帕
暴風圈半徑
七級風半徑  :200 公里
十級風半徑  :080 公里

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
92W INVEST 190830 0600 7.7N 136.9E WPAC 15 0
161807tspu3gvbspese4p4.jpg
76a3e0fe9925bc31d05991ae51df8db1cb137052.jpg

以上資料來自:CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2021擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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簽到天數: 601 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2019-8-31 08:32 | 顯示全部樓層
GFS 預測通過台灣東部海域,有機會發布海上颱風警報。 gfs_mslp_pcpn_wpac_27.png
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

jrchang5|2019-8-31 17:06 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 31/06Z評級Low。
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.9N
134.0E, APPROXIMATELY 45 NM SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. AMSI AND A 310045Z
MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LLC
SURROUND BY DENSE OVERCAST AND SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE
WEST. A 310012Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWS TIGHT TROUGHING SURROUNDED
BY 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS. 92W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT)
VWS, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
abpwsair.jpg 20190831.0830.himawari-8.ir.92W.INVEST.15kts.1004mb.6.5N.132.2E.100pc.jpg

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剛剛又升 MEDIUM  發表於 2019-8-31 20:12
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老農民版夜神月|2019-8-31 18:06 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA06Z升格TD
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 07N 133E ALMOST STATIONARY.
19083115.png avn0831-lalo.gif
92W_gefs0_latest.png



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t02436|2019-8-31 22:54 | 顯示全部樓層
10Z評級升Medium
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.9N
134.0E, APPROXIMATELY 45 NM SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. AMSI SHOWS A
PARTIALLY OBSCURED LLC SURROUND BY DENSE OVERCAST AND SCATTERED DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE WEST. A 310808Z SSMIS F-18 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS THE LLC TO BE CONSOLIDATING WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING
IN. A 310012Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWS TIGHT TROUGHING SURROUNDED BY
10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS. 92W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT)
VWS, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

abpwsair.jpg
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老農民版夜神月|2019-9-1 04:35 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC31/1930Z發布TCFA
WTPN22 PGTW 311930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/311851Z AUG 19//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW
311900)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.8N 131.4E TO 15.8N 125.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 311800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.5N 130.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.9N 134.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 130.7E, APPROXIMATELY 332
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DAVAO CITY, THE PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AMPLE FLARING CONVECTION OVER A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS OVERALL
FAVORABLE, WITH WARM (29-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, MODERATE (10-
20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO
FORMATIVE RADIAL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ALL SHOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWEST ALONG THE PHILIPPINE COAST, HOWEVER THE
ECMWF AND UKMO DELAY THE ONSET OF 25 KNOT WINDS UNTIL CLOSER TO THE
48 HOUR MARK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO
23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
011930Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 118.3E.//
NNNN

wp9219.gif 92W_311900sair.jpg
92W_gefs1_latest.png esrl.eps.ecmb.hit.92W.2019.168.png

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2019-9-1 17:32 | 顯示全部樓層
GFS 預測將直撲北部,上望中度颱風。
gfs_mslp_pcpn_wpac_26.png gfs_mslp_pcpn_wpac_31 (1).png
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ericlin6925|2019-9-1 17:44 來自手機 | 顯示全部樓層
這熱帶擾動對台灣其實滿有威脅的,只是強度可能不強(應該只會跟白鹿颱風差不多)。現在就看它到台灣東南部海面時走向,如果走較偏北,就會在台灣東部海面北上,如果走北北西,則可能侵襲北部,如果太平洋勢力較強,則會較偏西北,侵襲南部和東南部(我個人較看好此路徑),因為從八月中後,太平洋高壓勢力都比機構預測的偏強。

點評

如果如你所說的有侵襲北部的可能 那你之前說北部有防護罩什麼的..這個你怎麼解釋?  發表於 2019-9-1 19:04
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