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1916 琵琶 快速北上 環境不佳

簽到天數: 593 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2019-9-11 07:05 | 顯示全部樓層
  輕度颱風  
編號:1916 ( 17 W )
名稱:琵琶 ( Peipah )

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2019 09 11 07
升格熱低日期:2019 09 13 08
CWB升格日期: 2019 09 15 08
命名日期  :2019 09 15 21
停編日期  :2019 09 00 00
登陸地點  :

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB):18 m/s ( 8 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) :18 m/s ( 35 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):35 kts ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓1000 百帕
暴風圈半徑
七級風半徑  :80 公里
十級風半徑  :--- 公里

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
97W.INVEST.20kts-1000mb-6.3N-171.E

20190910.1624.f15.37h.97W.INVEST.15kts.1000mb.6.3N.171.7E.040pc.jpg

以上資料來自:CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

點評

98W搞爛環境也順勢讓97W沒有發展機會  發表於 2019-9-15 09:23
這次大餅爆掉,主要還是98W的出現導致95W整合完全失敗,而且還在兩高壓間擠出一個縫隙  發表於 2019-9-15 09:22
當然有,不就是二月的蝴蝶  發表於 2019-9-15 09:17
今年副高偏北偏弱,又有好幾次多個擾動同時發展,導致海水熱含量更低.所以今年日本受災,連北韓也影響到......只是今年西太會有風王嗎????  發表於 2019-9-11 23:42
EC轉為看好97W  發表於 2019-9-11 16:58
前則移除,這裡無法移除,並更正為在馬紹爾群島附近,預估關島東附近還有一個熱擾,應該是98W了。屆時注意!海面上有三個系統發展。  發表於 2019-9-11 09:24
這應該是塔巴。注意與轉琵琶颱風互動。  發表於 2019-9-11 09:18

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2019擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
t02436 + 15 + 1

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簽到天數: 593 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2019-9-13 10:51 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA 升格熱帶低壓。
19091309.png
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老農民版夜神月|2019-9-13 16:07 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC13/06Z評級Low
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.3N 159.2E, APPROXIMATELY 865 NM EAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PATCHY CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY. THIS CIRCULATION IS SITUATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30C) AND FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 IS
LOW.
abpwsair0912.jpg 20190913.0730.himawari-8.ir.97W.INVEST.15kts.1009mb.10.3N.159.2E.100pc.jpg
20190913.0440.f15.85rgb.97W.INVEST.15kts.1009mb.10.3N.159.2E.080pc.jpg

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jrchang5|2019-9-13 18:05 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 13/10Z提升評級至Medium。
(3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
PERSISTED NEAR 10.3N 159.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 156.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 680 NM EAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 130752 SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A DEVELOPING,
COMPACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A BAND OF PATCHY DEEP CONVECTION
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THIS CIRCULATION IS SITUATED IN AN AREA
OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS) AND FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE STEADY DEVELOPMENT AND
FURTHER CONSOLIDATION OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

abpwsair.jpg

A997C53C-C8E7-40C9-9C91-E4B9F181DBC4.jpeg
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2019-9-15 02:15 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC14/1700Z發布TCFA
WTPN22 PGTW 141700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97W)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140921Z SEP 19//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 140930)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.9N 151.5E TO 18.6N 147.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
141200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N
151.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT
13.5N 152.8E, IS NOW LOCATED AT 14.4N 151.2E, APPROXIMATELY 304 NM
EAST OF SAIPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. A 141551Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
ALSO SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTH AND
FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE WEST. 97W IS
CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE BEING
OFFSET BY VERY STRONG (45-50 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97W WILL MAINTAIN A CIRCULATION
NEAR THE 25 KT WARNING THRESHOLD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
151700Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 134.3E.//
NNNN

wp9719.gif 97W_141700sair.jpg
swir0915-lalo.gif rbtop0915-lalo.gif
rb00915-lalo.gif
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jrchang5|2019-9-15 02:15 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 14/17Z發布TCFA。
WTPN22 PGTW 141700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97W)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140921Z SEP 19//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 140930)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.9N 151.5E TO 18.6N 147.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
141200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N
151.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT
13.5N 152.8E, IS NOW LOCATED AT 14.4N 151.2E, APPROXIMATELY 304 NM
EAST OF SAIPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. A 141551Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
ALSO SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTH AND
FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE WEST. 97W IS
CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE BEING
OFFSET BY VERY STRONG (45-50 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97W WILL MAINTAIN A CIRCULATION
NEAR THE 25 KT WARNING THRESHOLD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
151700Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 134.3E.//
NNNN
wp9719.gif 20190914.1740.himawari-8.ir.97W.INVEST.20kts.1005mb.14.4N.151.1E.100pc.jpg
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jrchang5|2019-9-15 08:23 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC判定14/18Z升格為TD 17W。
WTPN31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141651ZSEP2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   141800Z --- NEAR 14.8N 150.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 150.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 16.3N 149.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 18.4N 147.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 20.8N 146.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 23.4N 144.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 27.4N 141.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 150.3E.
14SEP19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
279 NM EAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN22 PGTW 141700).//
NNNN
wp1719.gif abpwsair.jpg 20190914.2340.himawari-8.vis.17W.SEVENTEEN.25kts.1004mb.14.8N.150.6E.100pc.jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

開梅|2019-9-15 09:07 | 顯示全部樓層
早上看衛星雲圖,這個蘊釀多日的熱帶性低氣壓幾乎煙消雲散到屍骨無存了,昨天前天還聚集起來,上星期一堆新聞信誓旦旦地說準琵琶要誕生了,大家要小心中秋前後的天氣,如今感覺像狼來了的感覺,只感到追風過程的煎熬和疲憊

點評

結果可能沒有一個可以升格為颱風...  發表於 2019-9-15 09:16
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