老農民版夜神月

  一級颶風  
編號：15 E
名稱：Lorena

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2019 年 09 月 16 日 18 時
命名日期　　：2019 年 09 月 17 日 23 時
撤編日期　　：2019 年 09 月 23 日 19 時
登陸地點　　：墨西哥 南下加利福尼亞州
　　　　　　　　　　 索諾拉州 瓜伊馬斯

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速：75  kt
海平面最低氣壓：985 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  討論帖圖片  
92E INVEST 190916 0600 11.0N 95.0W EPAC 20 1009


  NHC：40%  

2. A large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers centered a few
hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is
associated with a tropical wave.  Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form around the middle of the week as the
system moves west-northwestward near, or parallel to, the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

老農民版夜神月

JTWC16/1600Z發布TCFA

WTPN22 PHNC 161600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92E)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161551Z SEP 19//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC
161600)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.4N 95.2W TO 16.2N 101.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 161200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.0N 96.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.0N 96.0W, APPROXIMATELY 675 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 161302Z SSMIS
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OBSCURING A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). BROAD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-
10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (30-32C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE CREATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE SPLIT BETWEEN A SCENARIO WHERE INVEST 92E TRACKS
NORTHWEST ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST, AND ONE WHERE IT IS ABSORBED INTO
INVEST 92E TO THE WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
171600Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 107.5W//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

NHC展望提升至High,90%/90%

2. Thunderstorm activity associated with a larger low pressure area
located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec is also becoming better organized, with
satellite-derived winds indicating that the circulation is also
better defined. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is
expected to form in a day or two as the system moves west-
northwestward near or a short distance offshore of the coast of
Mexico. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

t02436

15Z直接命名Lorena，將沿墨西哥西部近海北上。

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 171456
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

First-light 1-minute visible imagery from GOES-W revealed that the
disturbance just south of Mexico has developed a well-defined
surface center. The system has also developed an extensive
convective band stretching from the southwest to the northeast
quadrant of the cyclone. A pair of ASCAT passes overnight showed
winds were already at tropical-storm strength, so the system has
been designated as Tropical Storm Lorena. The initial intensity is
set at 35 kt, though the ASCAT data showed winds could actually
already be higher than that, so that may be conservative.

Lorena is moving quickly toward the northwest, or 305/13 kt. A
mid-level ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico should keep it
moving generally northwestward for the next few days, at a slightly
slower speed. Most of the dynamical models show this general
scenario, however some of the typically reliable track models,
including the GFS, seem to have trouble resolving the small
cyclone, and show the cyclone moving more west-northwestward. This
small difference is important and could be the difference between
Lorena directly impacting Mexico or passing just to the southwest.
The NHC forecast is on the far right side of the guidance envelope,
favoring the ECMWF and UKMET solutions, which seem to have a more
realistic current depiction of the tropical cyclone. The NHC
forecast is on the far right side of the standard guidance
envelope, but is near the middle of the ECMWF ensemble. This brings
Lorena very near the Mexico coast in about 2 days and it is possible
that the storm could make landfall. At longer ranges the GFS depicts
the beginning of a binary interaction between Lorena and the
newly-formed depression to the west, however at the moment this does
not seem particularly likely, and the NHC forecast favors the ECMWF
through day 5 which shows no such interaction.

Moderate easterly shear appears to be affecting the tropical storm
for now, and this will likely be the primary moderating factor for
Lorena's intensity. SSTs are very warm and there is ample moisture,
but only slow intensification is likely as long as the shear
persists. The NHC forecast therefore shows slow strengthening for
the next couple of days. Beyond that time, if the cyclone moves
inland, it should quickly weaken or possibly dissipate, but if it
stays farther offshore it may have an opportunity to strengthen
further. The NHC forecast holds the cyclone nearly steady-state, but
it is well below the consensus at day 4 and 5, since most of the
intensity models are based on tracks that stay well offshore of
Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 13.7N 100.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  18/0000Z 14.8N 101.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  18/1200Z 16.3N 102.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  19/0000Z 17.5N 103.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  19/1200Z 18.5N 104.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
72H  20/1200Z 20.0N 106.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
96H  21/1200Z 21.0N 108.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  22/1200Z 22.0N 110.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

天篷大元帥

美國國家颶風中心：颶風
同時墨西哥中部大西洋沿海在颶風警告範圍。
以下為該中心資料

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 190244
TCDEP5

Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Earlier microwave imagery showed that Lorena's structure has
continued to improve, with a well-defined low-level ring noted in
the 37-GHz channel.  The convective signature in infrared satellite
imagery is somewhat ragged, although it appears that a warm spot
may be developing near the estimated center.  Objective SATCON and
ADT intensity estimates are 66 kt and 75 kt, respectively, which is
higher than the 55-kt subjective estimates from TAFB and SAB.
However, given the improved microwave pattern, the initial
intensity hedges toward the objective numbers, making Lorena a
65-kt hurricane.

Both the track and intensity forecast hinge on whether Lorena
survives its fly-by of the coast of Mexico.  If the center stays
just offshore, which several of the models show, then a
strengthening ridge over northern Mexico should steer the cyclone
northwestward and west-northwestward away from west-central Mexico
after 24 hours, heading in the general direction of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.  The ECMWF is the only model
at the moment that shows Lorena's center moving inland, or
interacting with the high terrain enough, to dissipate within the
next 12-24 hours.

All that being said, the NHC track forecast assumes that Lorena
will survive the next 24 hours, and it has been nudged southwestward
beyond 36 hours, close to the multi-model consensus aids and the
HCCA model.  Based on this track, environmental conditions appear
favorable for further strengthening during the next couple of days.
Weakening should commence by day 3 once the system encounters areas
of higher shear and significantly lower oceanic heat content values.

As already insinuated above, due the potential for land interaction
within the next 12-24 hours, there is greater than usual uncertainty
in both the track and intensity forecast for Lorena through day 5.

Key Messages:

1. Lorena will be dangerously close to the coast of southwestern
Mexico tonight and on Thursday.  A hurricane warning is in effect,
and preparations to protect life in property should have been
completed.

2. Lorena is forecast to cause heavy rain over portions of the
Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next few
days.  This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

3. Lorena could threaten the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula as a hurricane this weekend, but the forecast
is more uncertain due to the potential for land interaction tonight
and Thursday.  Residents should ensure that their hurricane plan is
in place as watches may be required on Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0300Z 18.7N 104.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  19/1200Z 19.7N 105.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
24H  20/0000Z 20.5N 106.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
36H  20/1200Z 21.0N 107.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
48H  21/0000Z 21.4N 109.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
72H  22/0000Z 22.6N 111.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
96H  23/0000Z 24.6N 113.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  24/0000Z 26.4N 115.3W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

上為原文，下為僅供參考的機器翻譯。

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 190244
TCDEP5

颶風洛雷娜討論第7號
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
晚上1000點CDT Wed Sep 18 Sep9

早期的微波圖像顯示Lorena的結構具有
有一個定義明確的低級別戒指繼續改善
37 GHz頻道。紅外衛星的對流特徵
雖然看起來像是一個溫暖的地方，但圖像有點襤褸
可能正在估計中心附近發展。目標SATCON和
ADT強度估計值分別為66 kt和75 kt
高於TAFB和SAB的55kt主觀估計值。
然而，鑑於改進的微波模式，最初
強度對沖客觀數字，使Lorena成為一個
65克拉的颶風。

軌道和強度預測都取決於Lorena
倖存下來的墨西哥海岸。如果中心停留
只是離岸，其中幾個模型顯示，然後一個
加強墨西哥北部的山脊應引導颶風
遠離墨西哥中西部的西北和西北偏西
24小時後，向南方向行駛
下加利福尼亞半島的一角。ECMWF是唯一的型號
此刻顯示Lorena的中心正在向內陸移動，或者
與高地形相互作用足以在內部消散
接下來的12-24小時。

所有這一切，NHC賽道預測假設Lorena
將在接下來的24小時內存活，並且已經向西南方向推進
超過36小時，接近多模型共識的幫助和
HCCA模型。基於此軌道，出現環境條件
有利於在接下來的幾天內進一步加強。
一旦系統遇到區域，應在第3天開始減弱
高剪切和顯著降低的海洋熱含量值。

正如上面已經暗示的那樣，由於土地互動的潛力
在接下來的12-24小時內，存在比平時更大的不確定性
Lorena到第5天的賽道和強度預測。

關鍵信息：

洛雷納將危險地靠近西南海岸
墨西哥今晚和周四。颶風警告生效，
應該有保護財產生命的準備工作
完成。

預計洛雷娜會在部分地區造成大雨
在接下來的幾個墨西哥州，米卻肯州，科利馬州和哈利斯科州
天。這場降雨可能會導致危及生命的洪水氾濫
泥石流。

洛雷娜可以威脅到巴哈的南部
本週末加利福尼亞半島作為颶風，但預測
由於今晚有可能進行土地互動，因此更加不確定
和星期四。居民應確保他們的颶風計劃
星期四可能需要手錶。


預測位置和最大風

INIT 19 / 0300Z 18.7N 104.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 19 / 1200Z 19.7N 105.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 20 / 0000Z 20.5N 106.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 20 / 1200Z 21.0N 107.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 21 / 0000Z 21.4N 109.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 22 / 0000Z 22.6N 111.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 23 / 0000Z 24.6N 113.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 24 / 0000Z 26.4N 115.3W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

t02436

擦過墨西哥西岸時強度略減至TS上限，預期明天擦過下加利福尼亞半島前還會略為增強。

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 200241
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
900 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Geostationary satellite data and a recently received SSM/IS overpass
suggest that Lorena has gotten a little better organized since the
last advisory, with a central dense overcast forming near or over a
small mid-level eye seen in the microwave data.  However, the
various objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates
indicate that the cyclone has not yet regained hurricane strength.
The initial intensity is thus held at 60 kt.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/9.  Lorena is
located between a mid- to upper-level ridge over northern Mexico
and Tropical Storm Mario to the south-southwest, while a large
mid- to upper-level trough is northwest of Lorena over the western
United States and the northeastern Pacific.  The potential for
Lorena to interact with Mario is producing a large spread in the
guidance and a low confidence track forecast.  Much of the track
guidance, including the GFS, HWRF, HMON, and the GFS ensemble mean
show Lorena turning so sharply westward around the north side of
Mario that it passes south of the Baja California peninsula.  At
the other extreme is the older version of the GFS, which forecasts
Lorena to moved northwestward up the Gulf of California due mainly
to the influence of the Mexican ridge and the U. S. trough.  The
ECMWF model forecasts a track generally over the Baja California
peninsula, while the UKMET shows a track into the southern Gulf of
California followed by a westward turn across southern Baja.  The
new forecast track is similar to the previous track in forecasting
Lorena to pass near the southern end of the Baja California
peninsula, then move generally northwestward near the west coast of
the peninsula.  The new track lies well to the right of the various
consensus models, but it lies to the left of the ECWMF and the old
GFS model.  Adjustments to the forecast track may occur once the
amount of influence Mario will have on Lorena become more apparent.

The intensity forecast is also very uncertain due to the track
forecast uncertainties.  The new intensity forecast is based on the
track forecast that keeps Lorena over the water near the west coast
of the the Baja California peninsula, with the cyclone re-gaining
hurricane status before it moves over colder sea surface
temperatures and eventually dissipates over the cold water.
However there are three alternate scenarios.  First, the GFS
suggests the possibility that Mario will absorb Lorena and cause it
to completely dissipate.  Second, the older version of the GFS, with
its forecast over the warm waters of the Gulf of California, would
could allow Lorena to be stronger than currently forecast.  Finally,
the ECMWF's track over the Baja California Peninsula would also
cause Lorena to weaken faster than currently forecast.

The forecast track requires new warnings and watches for portions
of Baja California del Sur.  Additional warnings and watches may be
required for this area on Friday.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will continue over portions of the Mexican states
of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next day or so. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

2. Lorena is forecast to re-strengthen into a hurricane and bring
hurricane-force winds and heavy rainfall to a portion of the
southern Baja California peninsula beginning on Friday.  A Hurricane
Warning has been issued, and preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 22.3N 107.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
12H  20/1200Z 22.6N 108.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  21/0000Z 23.1N 110.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
36H  21/1200Z 23.9N 111.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
48H  22/0000Z 24.8N 112.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
72H  23/0000Z 27.5N 114.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
96H  24/0000Z 29.5N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

t02436

路徑較預期西偏，已於04Z登陸，未來沿加利福尼亞灣北上。

ZCZC MIATCUEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Lorena Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
1035 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...LORENA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR LA VENTANA MEXICO IN SOUTHEASTERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR...

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that Hurricane
Lorena made landfall near La Ventana, Mexico, in the state of Baja
California Sur around 0400 UTC (10 pm MDT) with maximum winds of 80
mph (130 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 1035 PM MDT...0435 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 110.0W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF LA PAZ MEXICO
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM N OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


NNNN

老農民版夜神月

NHC最新21/15Z報預測Lorena將短暫的在加利福尼亞灣內北行後,於+24H內再度登陸墨西哥

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 211459
TCDEP5

Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
900 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

The circulation of Lorena has been interacting with the high terrain
of the Baja California peninsula for the past 12 hours and most
likely the inner core has been disrupted. The center is very
difficult to locate on conventional imagery, but it is estimated to
be near the area of the deepest convection in the Gulf of
California. Based on continuity and Dvorak estimates, the initial
intensity is kept at 65 kt at this time. Given that a portion of
Lorena's circulation will continue to interact with land and that
the shear is forecast to increase significantly, gradual weakening
is anticipated. However, the intensity forecast is uncertain since
we do not know how much the inner core was disrupted by land. An Air
Force plane will investigate Lorena later today and should provide
a better assessment of Lorena's winds.

Since we do not have a good center location, the initial motion is
uncertain but the best estimate is toward the north or 350 degrees
at 10 kt. The steering currents associated with a subtropical high
over Mexico and an approaching mid-latitude trough should force
Lorena on a northerly track across the Gulf of California, and bring
the center of Lorena to mainland Mexico in about 24 hours. Once the
center moves inland rapid weakening is anticipated. The NHC forecast
is in the middle of the guidance envelope and is very close to the
corrected consensus HCCA.

Key Messages:

1. Lorena will produce heavy rain, with life-threatening flash
floods possible this weekend in parts of Baja California and
northwest Mexico. Moisture associated with Lorena is forecast to
bring a chance for heavy rain to the southwest United States late
this weekend and early next week.

2. Lorena is forecast to continue to produce tropical-storm-force
winds over a portion of the east coast of the Baja California
peninsula today. These conditions are expected to reach portions of
mainland Mexico tonight where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane
Watch is in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/1500Z 25.6N 110.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  22/0000Z 27.0N 111.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
24H  22/1200Z 29.0N 111.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  23/0000Z 31.0N 112.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
48H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila