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98P 短暫發展 登陸澳大利亞

簽到天數: 917 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

2020-1-27 06:44 | 顯示全部樓層
  基本資料  
編號    :98 P
擾動編號日期:2020 01 27 06
撤編日期  :2020 01 29 19
98P INVEST 200126 1800 17.3S 139.6E SHEM 15 0

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2020擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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簽到天數: 695 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

jrchang5|2020-1-27 18:18 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 jrchang5 於 2020-1-27 18:33 編輯

JTWC 27/06Z評級Low。
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
18.4S 139.4E, APPROXIMATELY 102 NM SOUTH OF MORNINGTON ISLAND,
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, ALONG WITH THE
MORNINGTON ISLAND RADAR LOOP, SHOWS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION.
A 270412Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE POCKETS OF
DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD THE LLC WITH POTENTIAL FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE
BANDING TO THE EAST, OVER CAPE YORK PENINSULA. A RECENT OBSERVATION
AT MORNINGTON ISLAND AIRPORT SHOWS 16 KNOT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
98P IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH LOW
(5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW.
WHILE 98P IS CURRENTLY OVER LAND, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT IT
WILL MOVE OVER THE VERY WARM (31 TO 32 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE IN THE
GULF OF CARPENTARIA. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98P
WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD, SKIRTING THE COASTLINE, BEFORE MOVING
BACK SOUTH WITH MINIMAL OVERALL INTENSIFICATION; HOWEVER,
INTENSIFICATION POTENTIAL IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW LONG THE SYSTEM
REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

abpwsair.jpg 20200127.0950.himawari-8.ir.98P.INVEST.20kts.1000mb.18.2S.139.8E.100pc.jpg 98P_gefs_latest.png
BoM在熱帶氣旋展望報告中亦不看好其未來發展。
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
IDD10610

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Monday 27 January 2020
for the period until midnight CST Thursday 30 January 2020.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A weak tropical low, 1003 hPa is located over the Gulf Country in Queensland near 18.2S 139.1E, about 340 kilometres east northeast of Brunette Downs at 2.00pm CST on 27 January. This tropical low is slowly moving towards the northeast and may briefly move over the southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters on Tuesday, before moving back over land on Wednesday and track to the southwest towards the Northern Territory/Queensland border.

In the longer term, the tropical low is expected move southwest across the central or southern districts of the Northern Territory.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Tuesday:Very Low.
Wednesdayow.
Thursday:Very Low.



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:less than 5%Low:5% to 20%
Moderate:20 to 50%High:Over 50%
The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).


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簽到天數: 695 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

jrchang5|2020-1-28 11:07 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 28/02Z提升評級至Medium。
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.4S 139.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.3S 141.6E, APPROXIMATELY  
135 NM SOUTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, A 272040Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE, AND THE MORNINGTON ISLAND RADAR LOOP SHOW A DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH IMPROVED CURVED BANDING WRAPPING AROUND
A 1001MB SURFACE LOW. INVEST 98P IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WITH LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A POINT
SOURCE OVERHEAD PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. INVEST 98P IS
CURRENTLY ANALYZED TO BE APPROXIMATELY 40 NM INLAND; HOWEVER, DUE TO
THE STRENGTH AND ORGANIZATION OF THE EXISTING SURFACE LOW, THE
DISTURBANCE MAY DEEPEN QUICKLY IF ITS TRACK DRIFTS FURTHER WESTWARD
OVER THE WARM (31-32C) WATERS OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98P WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD,
SKIRTING THE COASTLINE, BEFORE MOVING BACK SOUTH WITH MINIMAL
OVERALL INTENSIFICATION; HOWEVER, INTENSIFICATION POTENTIAL IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ITS EXACT TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
abpwsair.jpg 20200128.0230.himawari-8.vis.98P.INVEST.25kts.1001mb.17.3S.141.6E.100pc.jpg
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

jrchang5|2020-1-28 16:08 | 顯示全部樓層
中心已登陸澳大利亞昆士蘭州。JTWC於28/06Z直接撤評。
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.3S 141.6E IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER LAND AND IS NO LONGER
SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
20200128.0730.himawari-8.vis.98P.INVEST.25kts.998mb.18.7S.141.2E.100pc.jpg
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