老農民版夜神月

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：96 P
擾動編號日期：2020 年 02 月 15 日 08 時
撤編日期　　：2020 年 02 月 00 日 00 時
96P INVEST 200215 0000 14.8S 159.6E SHEM 15 0

老農民版夜神月

JTWC17/1400Z直接評級Medium

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.7S 177.3W, APPROXIMATELY 447 NM NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN
SAMOA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 170946Z
METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN EXTENSIVE, ELONGATED AREA OF
FRAGMENTED CONVECTION EXTENDING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH MULTIPLE
EMBEDDED, WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. INVEST 96P IS EXPERIENCING
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND
LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT SEVERAL
OF THOSE EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS MAY GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE AND
INTENSIFY AS THEY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD. INVEST 96P IS PLACED IN A
LIKELY REGION FOR ONE OF THOSE CIRCULATIONS TO CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.