老農民版夜神月

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：99 P
擾動編號日期：2020 年 02 月 20 日 22 時
撤編日期　　：2020 年 02 月 00 日 00 時
99P.INVEST.15kts.1000mb.13S.140E

老農民版夜神月

JTWC21/2100Z評級Low

(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.6S 139.5E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM SOUTHWEST OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA. A
201825Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM TO THE
NORTHEAST. 99P IS CURRENTLY IN A FAIR ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE MONSOON
TROUGH, WITH WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT OFFSET BY LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 99P WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTHWARD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

krichard2011

EC的預報很有趣
這系統進到澳洲陸地後仍持續增強
出海後直接變大物

krichard2011

BoM 已升格熱帶性低氣壓編號為 07U
目前暫上看2級熱帶氣旋
JTWC 亦發出TCFA

1. IDQ20018
   
2. TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
   
3. Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
   
4. at: 0146 UTC 22/02/2020
   
5. Name: Tropical Low  
   
6. Identifier: 07U
   
7. Data At: 0000 UTC
   
8. Latitude: 13.5S
   
9. Longitude: 139.0E
   
10. Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
    
11. Movement Towards: west southwest [258 deg]
    
12. Speed of Movement: 2 knots [5 km/h]
    
13. Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 20 knots [35 km/h]
    
14. Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
    
15. Central Pressure: 1001 hPa
    
16. Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
    
17. Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
    
18. Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
    
19. Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
    
20. Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
    
21. Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
    
22. Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
    
23. Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
    
24. Radius of 64-knot winds:
    
25. Radius of Maximum Winds:   
    
26. Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.0/
    
27. Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
    
28. Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm [370 km]
    
29. FORECAST DATA
    
30. Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
    
31. [UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
    
32. +06:  22/0600: 13.4S 138.9E:     035 [070]:  020  [035]: 1002
    
33. +12:  22/1200: 13.4S 138.7E:     050 [090]:  025  [045]: 1000
    
34. +18:  22/1800: 13.7S 138.8E:     060 [115]:  025  [045]: 1000
    
35. +24:  23/0000: 14.1S 138.8E:     075 [135]:  030  [055]:  998
    
36. +36:  23/1200: 15.2S 138.6E:     095 [175]:  040  [075]:  995
    
37. +48:  24/0000: 16.1S 137.9E:     100 [185]:  050  [095]:  991
    
38. +60:  24/1200: 16.9S 136.8E:     100 [185]:  040  [075]:  998
    
39. +72:  25/0000: 17.2S 135.1E:     100 [185]:  030  [055]: 1003
    
40. +96:  26/0000: 17.0S 132.7E:     195 [365]:  030  [055]: 1003
    
41. +120: 27/0000: 15.8S 130.0E:     285 [525]:  030  [055]: 1003
    
42. REMARKS:
    
43. Convection has weakened near the centre of the tropical low situated over
    
44. central parts of the Gulf of Carpentaria in the last few hours, with the nearest
    
45. convective blooms well displaced from the now exposed low-level centre. The
    
46. latest Dvorak analysis was based on a curved band pattern with a 0.1-2 degree
    
47. wrap, giving a DT of 1.0. FT was based on DT. There is currently a fair to good
    
48. degree of confidence in the location and intensity of the system with visible
    
49. satellite imagery showing an exposed low-level cloud centre. ASCAT at 0031UTC
    
50. indicated that the tropical low remains quite broad with the strongest winds
    
51. well removed from the centre. NOAA ADT suggests a CI 2.2 32-knot [1-min mean]
    
52. system, based on a shear pattern.
    
53. 
    
54. The system is located beneath an upper level ridge axis in an area of very weak
    
55. vertical wind shear with excellent upper level outflow to the north and south.
    
56. Sea-surface temperatures in the Gulf of Carpentaria are around 30-31 degrees
    
57. Celsius and increase towards 32 degrees Celsius closer to the southern
    
58. coastline. At this stage, the system is still rated a high chance of forming
    
59. into a tropical cyclone during Sunday given the very favourable environment with
    
60. intensification to category 2 prior to making landfall about the southern Gulf
    
61. of Carpentaria coast on Monday. Given the environment appears to be conducive
    
62. for development it is possible there could be a period of rapid intensification
    
63. during Sunday and Monday and that the system could potentially reach category 3
    
64. intensity.
    
65. 
    
66. The tropical low is currently slow-moving and the steering influences are
    
67. expected to remain weak during Saturday. Into Sunday, the system is expected to
    
68. adopt a south-southwesterly track towards the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast
    
69. under the combined influence of a developing upper trough over central Australia
    
70. and a new mid-level ridge across the northwest Coral Sea. There appears to be a
    
71. strong consensus amongst the latest 00 and 12 UTC determinsitc models in a
    
72. landfall during Monday and that the system will most likely take a path across
    
73. the centre of the Northern Territory into the middle of next week.
    
74. 
    
75. Abnormally high tides are expected to develop about the Gulf of Carpentaria
    
76. coast over the next couple of days and based on the current forecast track there
    
77. is the potential for water levels to approach or exceed the highest astronomical
    
78. tide about the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast, particularly around the high
    
79. tide on Sunday night and again on Monday night.
    
80. 
    
81. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
    
82. ==
    
83. The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 22/0730 UTC by Brisbane
    
84. TCWC.

複製代碼

老農民版夜神月

JTWC升格19P,預測24H內即將登陸,登陸前上望55節

老農民版夜神月

BoM23/18Z判定07U強度已達澳式C1,命名Esther,定強40KT
並預測半日內系統將進一步增強至45KT後登陸

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1857 UTC 23/02/2020
Name: Tropical Cyclone Esther
Identifier: 07U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 16.0S
Longitude: 139.1E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [224 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 991 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 40 nm [75 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS STT0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 160 nm [295 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  24/0000: 16.5S 138.7E:     030 [060]:  045  [085]:  989
+12:  24/0600: 16.8S 138.1E:     045 [080]:  045  [085]:  990
+18:  24/1200: 17.0S 137.3E:     055 [105]:  040  [075]:  993
+24:  24/1800: 17.1S 136.5E:     070 [130]:  030  [055]:  996
+36:  25/0600: 17.2S 134.9E:     090 [165]:  030  [055]:  999
+48:  25/1800: 17.0S 133.3E:     110 [200]:  030  [055]:  999
+60:  26/0600: 16.7S 131.7E:     130 [235]:  030  [055]:  999
+72:  26/1800: 16.2S 130.1E:     145 [270]:  030  [055]:  999
+96:  27/1800: 15.7S 126.9E:     190 [355]:  030  [055]:  999
+120: 28/1800: 16.4S 123.2E:     280 [515]:  035  [065]:  992
REMARKS:
Tropical cyclone Esther was located using animated rapid-scan Himawari satellite
imagery and radar imagery from the Mornington Island weather radar. Confidence
in the centre position is rated as fair to good.

Convection has continued to increase in the area with a vigorous band located
north of the system, and another band to the south of the system, closer to the
centre. Radar imagery suggests this latter band has wrapped around the
southeast, southwest, and northwest quadrants of the system. Dvorak analysis is
based on a 0.45 curved band, giving DT 2.5. MET is 3.0 based on a 24 hour D+
trend. PT is also 3.0. Final T based on MET/PT. NESDIS ADT estimates remain at
CI 2.4 with a 1-minute Vmax of 34 knots. Intensity is analysed at 40 knots with
gales suspected to be in three quadrants corresponding with the main convection.

CIMSS satellite winds suggest that tropical cyclone Esther is located beneath an
upper-level anticyclone, with highly diffluent upper-level winds creating good
outlow channels in both the poleward and equatorward directions. Sea-surface
temperatures in the Gulf of Carpentaria are around 30-31 degrees Celsius and
increase towards 32 degrees Celsius closer to the southern coastline. The
environment is highly favourable for further development. However, the system's
proximity to land and limited remaining time over water should limit its
intensity to below category 2.

Esther has been moving southwest during the past few hours, with a mid-level
ridge to the northeast being the dominant steering influence. This motion should
continue through to landfall on the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast this
afternoon. In the medium to long term, a cradling mid-level ridge will steer the
system westward across the northern Australian continent for most of the
remainder of the week, with numerical models and ensembles in good agreement on
the track.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/0130 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

jrchang5

BoM判定Esther已於24/02Z左右在昆士蘭州與北領地交界處附近登陸。

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 21
Issued at 12:34 pm EST on Monday 24 February 2020

Headline:
Esther has now made landfall between Mornington Island and the NT/Qld border as a category 1 tropical cyclone

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Port Roper to Karumba, including Borroloola and Mornington Island and adjacent inland areas between Cape Crawford and Century Mine, including Doomadgee.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
Karumba to Gilbert River Mouth.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Esther at 12:00 pm AEST [11:30 am ACST]:
Intensity: Category 1 (988 hPa), sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 16.8 degrees South 138.2 degrees East, estimated to be 105 kilometres west of Mornington Is and 215 kilometres east southeast of Borroloola.

Movement: west southwest at 16 kilometres per hour.

Esther has now made landfall between Mornington Island and the NT/Qld border as a category 1 tropical cyclone and is expected to move westwards into the Northern Territory later today, while weakening.

Hazards:
GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are occurring about the coast and adjacent inland areas between the NT/Qld border and Karumba, including Burketown, Doomadgee and Mornington Island. GALES may extend further west to coastal communities between Port Roper and the NT/Queensland border and to adjacent inland areas including Century Mine, Robinson River, Borroloola and Cape Crawford later today, depending on the movement and intensity of tropical cyclone Esther.

As the cyclone crosses the coast, a STORM TIDE is expected between the NT/Qld border and Karumba and this could persist onto the high tide tonight. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours. Tides are also expected to be higher than normal about the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria coast, including Groote Eylandt. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

HEAVY RAIN with the potential to cause flash flooding is expected in areas around the Gulf of Carpentaria today, and will then move west following the weakening cyclone over the coming days. Flood Watches are current for Gulf of Carpentaria catchments.

老農民版夜神月

BoM09Z降格熱帶低氣壓,JTWC同時對其發布Final Warning

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0928 UTC 24/02/2020
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Esther
Identifier: 07U
Data At: 0900 UTC
Latitude: 16.7S
Longitude: 137.3E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west [259 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [14 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [60 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:   
Dvorak Intensity Code: N/A
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm [370 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  24/1500: 16.9S 136.5E:     030 [060]:  030  [055]:  994
+12:  24/2100: 17.0S 135.7E:     045 [080]:  030  [055]:  996
+18:  25/0300: 17.0S 134.9E:     055 [105]:  030  [055]:  998
+24:  25/0900: 17.0S 134.1E:     070 [130]:  030  [055]:  999
+36:  25/2100: 16.7S 132.6E:     090 [165]:  030  [055]:  999
+48:  26/0900: 16.2S 131.0E:     110 [200]:  030  [055]:  999
+60:  26/2100: 15.7S 129.4E:     130 [235]:  030  [055]:  999
+72:  27/0900: 15.3S 127.8E:     140 [260]:  030  [055]:  999
+96:  28/0900: 15.5S 124.3E:     175 [320]:  030  [055]:  997
+120: 29/0900: 16.7S 120.5E:     215 [400]:  045  [085]:  989
REMARKS:
Ex-tropical cyclone Esther has now transitioned into a vigourous tropical low
and is expected to move in a general westwards direction across the interior of
the Northern Territory into tonight. After making landfall, the convection
surrounding the system developed significantly with numerous mature curved bands
wrapping around the system, but in more recent imagery this convection has
merged into an area of dense overcast cloud. This kind of intensification of
warm cored systems over land is not uncommon across northern Australia and have
been documented and christened as 'agukabams' by Callaghan, Otto and Emanuel
[2007].

Storm surge peaks of around 1.3-1.7m have recently been observed at the
Burketown and Karumba storm tide gauges in the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria
[courtesy of the Department of Environment and Science]. The storm surge appears
to be slowly abating, though a portion of this is persisting on the high tide
tonight and as a result the total waters levels will reach or exceed the Highest
Astronomical Tide.

CIMSS satellite winds suggest that the system is no longer beneath the
upper-level anticyclone and is starting to fall within an area of slightly
increased vertical wind shear. Good outlow channels in both the poleward and
equatorward directions still exist. This environment is conducive to the system
remaining as a vigorous tropical low this evening and overnight and as a
damaging winds and heavy rainfall will remain a risk.

The system is now starting to track towards the west-southwest and should start
to be steered in a more general westwards direction cross the northern
Australian continent for most of the remainder of the week by a cradling
mid-level ridge. There appears to be a strong consensus amongst the computer
models that Esther will track across the Northern Territory and northern Western
Australia before emerging over the Indian Ocean. At this stage, there is a high
[greater than 50%] chance that the system will rapidly redevelop into a tropical
cyclone in the Indian Ocean this weekend.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system unless it reintensifies.