typhoonhato1713

霧峰追風者 發表於 2020-5-8 21:23
GFS 預測將通過臺灣海峽。

ec的預測路徑也差不多

老農民版夜神月

JTWC於09/0030Z將95W提升評級為Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.5N 135.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.7N 132.8E, APPROXIMATELY 114
NM SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 082125Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST. INVEST 95W IS IN
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 95W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD BEFORE TURNING
NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

老農民版夜神月

JMA10/00Z升格其為TD,並發出Warning

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA
AT 07.3N 131.8E SEA EAST OF MINDANAO MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

t02436

JTWC發布TCFA

老農民版夜神月

JTWC10/0300Z發布TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.2N 131.7E TO 9.9N 129.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 100000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.2N 131.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.7N 132.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 131.5E, APPROXIMATELY 180
NM WEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
092102Z NOAA-19 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH SOME CONVECTION OVERHEAD AND WEAK FORMATIVE BANDING
TO THE NORTH. INVEST 95W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (28-30C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
WHILE IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
110300Z.
//
NNNN

megi

老農民版夜神月 發表於 2020-5-10 11:05
JTWC10/0300Z發布TCFA

維持過往的慣例，GFS高壓報得比較弱，EC報得比較強，究竟鹿死誰手，再過兩三天系統發展起來應該就會比較明暸了

ben811018

補EC系集
後期還是頗為分歧
轉向時間點有待觀察
台灣附近環境也不利熱帶系統生存
要維持一定強度難度頗高XD

t02436

JMA發布GW

熱帯低気圧
令和02年05月11日22時25分 発表

<11日21時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        ミンダナオ島の東
中心位置        北緯 8度30分(8.5度)
東経 129度00分(129.0度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧        1006hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<12日21時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯 10度35分(10.6度)
東経 128度40分(128.7度)
進行方向、速さ        北 ゆっくり
中心気圧        998hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        110km(60NM)