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老農民版夜神月|2020-5-16 16:53
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JTWC16/06Z升格01B,並上望C2,90節
WTIO31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 9.8N 86.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.8N 86.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 10.5N 86.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 11.7N 86.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 12.9N 86.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 14.2N 86.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 17.6N 87.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 21.8N 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 24.8N 90.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 10.0N 86.4E.
16MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 392 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
160600Z IS 12 FEET. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS A MONSOON DEPRESSION THAT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE,
CHARACTERIZED BY EXPANSIVE (OVER 600NM ACROSS) RAIN BANDS . THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI LOOP.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FR0M A 160309Z PARTIAL ASCAT
PASS AND CONSISTENT WITH NEARBY BUOY WIND OBSERVATIONS. TC 01B IS IN
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM (31C) SSTS. THE CYCLONE WILL
TRACK NORTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE EAST. BY TAU 48, THE TC WILL TRACK MORE NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE STR WEAKENS. VWS WILL INCREASE AS THE TC MOVES
POLEWARD, HOWEVER, STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW AND THE STORM MOTION BEING
IN-PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL EASILY OFFSET THE VWS.
THIS, COMBINED WITH VERY WARM SST WILL PROMOTED STEADY
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 90KTS. AFTERWARD, TC 01B WILL MAKE
LANDFALL JUST SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA AROUND TAU 96. LAND INTERACTION
WILL PRIMARILY CAUSE ITS RAPID DECAY AND BY TAU 120, WILL BE REDUCED
TO 30KTS AS IT MOVES FURTHER INLAND. NUMERIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, GIVEN THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE CYCLONE, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS INITIAL TRACK FORECAST FROM JTWC. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.//
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