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2004 哈格比 自台灣東北方外海通過 北上登陸中韓後轉化

簽到天數: 601 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2020-7-31 09:33 | 顯示全部樓層
  中度颱風  
編號:2004 ( 03 W )
名稱:哈格比 ( Hagupit )
2004.png

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2020 07 31 01
JMA升格日期:2020 07 31 14
CWB升格日期:  2020 08 01 08
命名日期  :2020 08 01 20
停編日期  :2020 08 06 08
登陸地點  :中國 浙江省 樂清市
       北韓 黃海南道
颱風警報總計:海上警報 15

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB):33 m/s ( 12 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) :35 m/s ( 65 kt )
中國氣象局 (CMA):38 m/s ( TY )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):75 kts ( Cat.1 )
海平面最低氣壓978 百帕
暴風圈半徑
七級風半徑  :100 公里
十級風半徑  :040 公里

  過去路徑圖   - 來源:維基百科


  擾動編號資料  
92W.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-16.8N-131.0E

20200731.0110.himawari-8.ir.92W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.16.8N.131E.100pc.jpg

92W.jpg

以上資料來自:CWB、JMA、CMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2020擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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本帖被以下淘專輯推薦:

簽到天數: 868 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

jrchang5|2020-7-31 11:05 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 31/03Z評級Low。
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
16.8N 131.0E, APPROXIMATELY 590 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS
A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FLANKED BY SPARSE CONVECTION
OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (29-
30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY CONVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS TAIWAN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
abpwsair.jpg 20200731.0230.himawari-8.vis.92W.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.16.8N.131E.100pc.jpg
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-7-31 15:05 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC06Z評級提升為Medium
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.8N 131.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 129.9E, APPROXIMATELY 535 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 310457Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTIVE
BANDING DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET
BY UNFAVORABLE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LLC.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO CONSOLIDATE AND IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS TAIWAN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
141536tfz0gxkxxn4x0fdy.jpg cb049822720e0cf3dea4bdae1d46f21fbf09aaee.png 143007qytrc12t2z2aifmy.jpg 141734zuwdihpvxtdihwta.png
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簽到天數: 49 天

[LV.5]常住居民I

Heigo|2020-7-31 16:36 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 Heigo 於 2020-8-1 11:24 編輯

JMA TD
105718npps5qsq5blplg5l.png

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 更正完成~給推

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簽到天數: 1911 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

ben811018|2020-7-31 19:30 | 顯示全部樓層
wgmssht.gif
高海溫但風切也強
成颱不易
不過熱帶低壓應該沒什麼問題
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pmy455091a|2020-8-1 08:16 | 顯示全部樓層

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簽到天數: 868 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

jrchang5|2020-8-1 08:32 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 jrchang5 於 2020-8-1 08:53 編輯

JTWC 31/2130Z發布TCFA。
WTPN22 PGTW 312130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/311821Z JUL 20//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 311830)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.1N 130.0E TO 22.7N 125.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 311800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.4N 129.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.6N 129.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 129.6E, APPROXIMATELY
465 NM SOUTHEAST OF ISHIGAKIJIMA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A TIGHT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD POTENTIAL FORMATIVE BANDING
BEGINNING TO WRAP IN FROM THE EAST. A 311709Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM
THE EAST AND SOUTH. A 311300Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALS TIGHT
TROUGHING WITH A SWATH OF 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE.
92W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD WHILE
INTENSIFYING, POTENTIALLY REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD WITHIN 36
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
012130Z.
4. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 311830) FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  112.0E//
NNNN

wp9220.gif 20200731.2350.himawari-8.vis.92W.INVEST.20kts.1006mb.18.4N.129.6E.100pc.jpg
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簽到天數: 1196 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

周子堯@FB|2020-8-1 09:40 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA 00z發布GW,所處位置輻散良好,有發展跡象,目前進度已經追上虛胖的91W了》_《
熱帯低気圧
令和02年08月01日10時30分 発表

<01日09時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        フィリピンの東
中心位置        北緯 19度50分(19.8度)
東経 129度05分(129.1度)
進行方向、速さ        北北西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧        1006hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<01日21時の予報>
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        沖縄の南
予報円の中心        北緯 20度40分(20.7度)
東経 126度50分(126.8度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧        1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径        110km(60NM)

<02日09時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        石垣島の南南東約290km
予報円の中心        北緯 22度00分(22.0度)
東経 125度25分(125.4度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧        1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        150km(80NM)
b-00.png

20200801.0030.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.92WINVEST.20kts-1006mb-200N-1288E.100pc.jpg

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 讚一個

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