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93W 菲東低緯擾動

簽到天數: 1130 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

2020-8-2 23:29 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2020-8-4 16:44 編輯

  基本資料  
編號    :93 W
擾動編號日期:2020 08 02 23
撤編日期  :2020 08 00 00
93W INVEST 200802 1200 5.0N 130.0E WPAC 15 0

232605ij9le9xxx99q5j4m.jpg

點評

目前看起來會進南海,和辛樂克路徑差不多,也有升格的機會  發表於 2020-8-3 01:41

評分

參與人數 2水氣能量 +35 2020擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
chart + 20
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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簽到天數: 53 天

[LV.5]常住居民I

天篷大元帥|2020-8-3 09:54 | 顯示全部樓層
不被看好,只有約兩成的路線看好。
93W_gefs_latest.png
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簽到天數: 1130 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-8-3 15:53 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2020-8-3 16:21 編輯

JTWC評級Medium
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.3N
129.4E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD DISTURBANCE
WITH DISORGANIZED, FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF
THE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTERLY WIND BURST. A 022338Z ASCAT-A
IMAGE REVEALS AN ELONGATED, DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH CONVERGENT 15
TO 20 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND NORTHWEST
OF THE CENTER. A 030053Z MHS 89GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE
EAST QUADRANT OF A BROAD LLCC, HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS WEAK
ELSEWHERE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOTS) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND BROAD, DIFFLUENT FLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM
(30-31C), AND ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.

abpwsair.jpg 20200803.0750.himawari-8.ir.93W.INVEST.20kts.1004mb.5.8N.129.1E.100pc.jpg
20200803.0758.f18.composite.93W.INVEST.20kts.1004mb.5.8N.129.1E.090pc.jpg 未命名.png
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簽到天數: 53 天

[LV.5]常住居民I

天篷大元帥|2020-8-4 14:46 | 顯示全部樓層
GG原文:

ABPW10 PGTW 040600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/040600Z-050600ZAUG2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040151ZAUG2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 04AUG20 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 28.8N 120.5E, APPROXIMATELY 153 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SHANGHAI,
CHINA, AND HAD TRACKED NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45
KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 040300) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.3N 129.4E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
粗劣的機器翻譯:

ABPW10 PGTW 040600
MSGID / GENADMIN / JOINT颱風白珍珠港HI //
SUBJ /熱帶
太平洋和/太平洋南部的重要熱帶天氣諮詢/ 040600Z-050600ZAUG2020 //
REF / A / MSG / EAR PNPHOON TYPHO //
AMPN / REF A是熱帶氣旋警告
。//RMKS /
1. 西北太平洋地區(180至馬來半島):
   A.熱帶氣旋概要:
      (1)在04AUG20 0000Z,熱帶風暴03W(HAGUPIT)位於
附近。 28.8N 120.5E,大約位於
中國西南偏南153海裡,並且在
過去六個小時內以11個結的速度向西北偏北移動。估計的最大持續風量為45
打到55個打結。有關更多詳細信息,請參見REF A(WTPN31 PGTW 040300)

      (2)沒有其他熱帶氣旋。
   B.熱帶乾擾概要:
      (1)
5.3N 129.4E附近原定的對流區域(投資93W)已經消失
,在接下來的24小時內不再需要發展顯著的熱帶氣旋。

      (2)沒有其他可疑區域。
   C.亞熱帶系統摘要:無。
2.南美地區(南美最西海岸至135東):
   A.熱帶氣旋概述:無。
   B.熱帶乾擾概要:無。
   C.亞熱帶系統摘要:NONE.//
NNNN


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