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97W 不敵強勢副高 減弱消散

簽到天數: 601 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2020-8-13 15:00 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 周子堯@FB 於 2020-8-17 22:21 編輯

基本資料  
編號    :97 W
擾動編號日期:2020 08 13 14
撤編日期  :2020 08 17 21
97W.INVEST.15kts-1009mb-8.8N-179E

20200813.0630.himawari-8.ir.97W.INVEST.15kts.1009mb.8.8N.179E.100pc.jpg

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2020擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
周子堯@FB + 15 + 1 97W

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簽到天數: 1194 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

周子堯@FB|2020-8-13 16:48 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA 18Z已判定為LPA,目前渦度良好,GFS看好發展
WWJP27 RJTD 121800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 121800.
SUMMARY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 10N 179W WEST SLOWLY.
20081303.png
wgmsvor.gif
46c364fb-927f-44a4-b792-d4ab5e85b32a.gif

點評

看好發展 應該能挑戰C1以上  發表於 2020-8-13 19:59
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簽到天數: 53 天

[LV.5]常住居民I

天篷大元帥|2020-8-13 21:18 | 顯示全部樓層
tropicaltidbits網站電腦模擬不看好
97W_gefs_latest.png
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簽到天數: 601 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2020-8-14 10:06 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 評級Low。
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
8.3N 178.8E, APPROXIMATELY 443 NM EAST FROM MAJURO, FSM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW LEVEL BANDS WRAPPING AROUND AN
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 132316Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS A SMALL POCKET OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LLC. INVEST 97W IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE THAT 97W WILL CONSOLIDATE AND MARGINALLY STRENGTHEN AS IT
SLOWLY TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
20200814.0130.himawari-8.vis.97W.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.8.3N.179.2E.100pc.jpg
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簽到天數: 1130 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-8-14 23:41 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2020-8-15 00:45 編輯

JTWC1500Z提升評級至Medium,GFS目前轉而較不看好其發展
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.3N 178.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 177.2E, APPROXIMATELY
564 NM EAST OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF WEAK, DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. A COMBINATION OF PARTIAL ASCAT PASSES AT 140832Z
(ASCAT-A) AND 140947Z (ASCAT-B) DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF WEAK
(10-15 KTS) LOW LEVEL WINDS WRAPPING AROUND AN ELONGATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. STRONGER 20-25 KTS WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
GRADIENT FLOW ARE DISPLACED 60+ NM TO THE NORTH. THE ENVIRONMENT
IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS WEAK. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, HOWEVER NUMERICAL MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
IN OVERALL POOR AGREEMENT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

abpwsair.jpg 20200814.1510.himawari-8.ir.97W.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.8.2N.177.2E.100pc.jpg
97W_gefs_latest.png 97W_tracks_latest.png
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簽到天數: 1130 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-8-16 15:08 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC0600Z降評Low
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.5N 173.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 165.5E, APPROXIMATELY 139
NM NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 152306Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH SOME SHALLOW BANDING AND SCATTERED
FLARING CONVECTION. A 152255Z ASCAT-C IMAGE REVEALS THE ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH SOME 15KT EASTERLY WINDS PRESENT IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE AND 5-10KT WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW;
HOWEVER, THE WIND FIELD HAS BROADENED AND CONTINUES TO LACK STRONG
WESTERLIES. NO GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
20200816.0630.himawari-8.ir.97W.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.9.8N.165.5E.100pc.jpg 20200816.0513.f18.composite.97W.INVEST.15kts.1009mb.9.8N.167.3E.075pc.jpg
LATEST (10).jpg
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簽到天數: 49 天

[LV.5]常住居民I

Heigo|2020-8-16 23:08 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 Heigo 於 2020-8-16 23:10 編輯

JTWC 1500Z 撤評
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.7N 165.5E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


abpwsair (3).jpg
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-8-16 23:08 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC16/1500Z取消評級
ABPW10 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/161500Z-170600ZAUG2020//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.7N 165.5E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
20200816.1430.himawari-8.ir.97W.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.10.3N.164.1E.100pc.jpg 97W_gefs_latest.png
LATEST.jpg
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