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2015 蓮花 美軍率先升格 短暫發展 登陸越南

簽到天數: 1199 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

2020-10-7 12:45 | 顯示全部樓層
  輕度颱風  
編號:2015 ( 17 W )
名稱:蓮花 ( Linfa )
215107hhmplpvlbgmqlhqm.jpg
  基本資料  
擾動編號日期        :2020 10 07 12
JMA升格熱低日期:2020 10 09 20
CWB升格熱低日期 : 2020 10 10 08
JMA命名日期  :2020 10 11 02
停編日期         :2020 10 12 02
登陸地點         :越南 廣義省

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB):18 m/s ( 8 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) :20 m/s ( 40 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):40 kts ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓998 百帕
暴風圈半徑
七級風半徑  :100 公里
十級風半徑  :---- 公里

  過去路徑圖   - 來源:維基百科

Linfa_2020_track.png
  擾動編號資料  
92W.INVEST.15kts-1011mb-14N-125E

20201006.0756.f15.37h.92W.INVEST.15kts.1011mb.14N.125E.030pc.jpg
以上資料來自:CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2020擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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簽到天數: 1199 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-10-8 00:53 | 顯示全部樓層
EC系集有大量支持92W發展的訊號
eastasia.png 20201007.1620.himawari-8.ir.92W.INVEST.15kts.1004mb.13.8N.124.4E.100pc.jpg
20201007.1017.f17.91hw.92W.INVEST.15kts.1004mb.14N.124.5E.095pc.jpg 20201007.1017.f17.91pct91h91v.92W.INVEST.15kts.1004mb.14N.124.5E.095pc.jpg
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簽到天數: 1199 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-10-9 04:55 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC1930Z評級Low
ABPW10 PGTW 081930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/081930Z-090600ZOCT2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081351ZOCT2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 08OCT20 1200Z, TYPHOON 16W (CHAN-HOM) WAS LOCATED NEAR
29.5N 133.3E, APPROXIMATELY 475 NM SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, AND
HAD TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 100 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 081500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST
92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.7N 119.1E, APPROXIMATELY 123 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH MINIMAL
TURNING. A 081230Z ASCAT-A PASS REVEALS 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). INVEST 92W IS
IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND
VERY WARM (31-32C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS
IT STRENGTHENS AND CONSOLIDATES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) AS A LOW.//
NNNN
abpwsair (20).jpg 20201008.1729.gw1.89hbt.92W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.14N.123.8E.93pc.jpg 20201008.1729.gw1.89pct89h89v.92W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.14N.123.8E.93pc.jpg
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簽到天數: 55 天

[LV.5]常住居民I

Heigo|2020-10-9 14:13 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 Heigo 於 2020-10-9 14:14 編輯

JTWC Medium
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.2N
116.5E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 090000Z GMI 89GHZ
IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION WITH LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO
A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. INVEST 92W IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT
IS MODERATELY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY
WARM (31-32C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD
AS IT STRENGTHENS AND CONSOLIDATES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

abpwsair (16).jpg
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-10-9 15:39 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA天氣圖對此系統亦已有反應,目前已標示為低壓帶,並預測92W將於一到兩天後成為TD
20100909.png 20101109.png
20201009.0700.himawari-8.vis.92W.INVEST.20kts.1004mb.13.1N.116.6E.100pc.jpg
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[LV.5]常住居民I

Heigo|2020-10-9 18:56 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 Heigo 於 2020-10-9 18:59 編輯

JTWC TCFA
THE AREA ON CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.1N 117.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 115.6E, APPROXIMATELY
466 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DANANG, VIETNAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION WITH
LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE FORMATIVE BANDS ARE ALSO PRESENT
IN A 090525Z ATMS 183GHZ WHICH FURTHER CONSTRAINS THE CURRENT
POSITION. INVEST 92W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT
THAT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE
(15-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY WARM (28-30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND  ROBUST EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT INVEST
92W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AS THE VWS WEAKENS BELOW 15 KTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
wp9220.gif

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 TCFA

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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-10-9 19:15 來自手機 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC這個TCFA發的遠比預料中的快,看來JMA升TD應該不用如預測天氣圖般的等到48H後了
09Z最新底層掃描
20201009.0903.f18.91pct91h91v.92W.INVEST.20kts.1004mb.13.1N.115.6E.085pc.jpg 20201009.0903.f18.91h.92W.INVEST.20kts.1004mb.13.1N.115.6E.085pc.jpg
20201009.0903.f18.91hw.92W.INVEST.20kts.1004mb.13.1N.115.6E.085pc.jpg
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-10-9 22:38 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2020-10-9 23:12 編輯

JMA12Z隨即升格TD
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 13N 115E ALMOST STATIONARY.

20100921.png
20201009.1023.noaa19.89rgb.92W.INVEST.20kts.1004mb.13.1N.115.6E.100pc.jpg LATEST.jpg

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