老農民版夜神月

  基本資料  
編號               ：97 W
擾動編號日期 ：2020 年 10 月 19 日 14 時
撤編日期        ：2020 年 10 月 24 日 09 時
97W.INVEST.20kts-1007mb-22.6N-139.4E

Heigo

JTWC Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
22.6N 139.4E, APPROXIMATELY 674 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 190658Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE
DEPICT A SMALL, DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OBSCURED BY DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. INVEST 97W IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT,
MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE INVEST 97W WILL TRACK
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

老農民版夜神月

環流較為迷你,緯度也略高,對於97W而言要成颱可能會較為困難

正宜27

jma:TD

霧峰追風者

JTWC :Medium。

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 22.6N 139.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 138.8E, APPROXIMATELY
140 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 191930Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A REGION OF CONVECTIVE
BANDING AROUND A SMALL, DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OBSCURED BY
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. INVEST 97W IS IN A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, ONLY OFFSET BY
MODERATE-HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE INVEST 97W WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS 19W MOVES WEST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

king111807

JTWC發布TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 200200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 150 NM RADIUS OF 24.5N 138.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 200000Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 138.4E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 24.1N 138.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 138.4E, APPROXIMATELY
160 NM WEST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 192151Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION
OFFSET TO THE EAST OF A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
INVEST 97W IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, ONLY OFFSET BY MODERATE-HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE INVEST 97W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
ERRATICALLY POLEWARD WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS TS 19W MOVES WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
210200Z.
//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

97W的發展有點超乎預期,單從底層掃描去看結構其實還算不錯
也算是成功打臉了之前一票一直不太看好他的各類數值
雖然數值預報經常忽視這類小型系統也算是老毛病了

老農民版夜神月

JMA發布Warning

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA
AT 24.7N 138.6E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.